The Warriors have been hefty favorites to repeat as NBA Champions since early in the regular season, but their title odds tripped and fell Monday night with a 108-102 loss to the Thunder in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Golden State no longer has the best odds of collecting the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Instead Oklahoma City is favored.
But the margins of advantage are very small.
FiveThirtyEight's CARM-Elo model gives the Thunder a 56 percent chance of advancing to the Finals (over the Warriors' 44 percent). Because those figures are only 6 percentage points on either side of 50-50, the championship odds for both teams are nearly identical: 36 percent for OKC and 35 percent for Golden State.
Still, it's the first time a team not led by Stephen Curry has been favored to win it all.
The Cavaliers, meanwhile, get 25 percent odds of hanging the championship banner (over the Raptors' 5 percent).
The week-over-week leap in the Thunder's title odds is dramatic, but not unexpected. As of May 10, FiveThirtyEight gave Oklahoma City a 6 percent chance at the 'ship, fourth behind Golden State (47%), San Antonio (25%) and Cleveland (18%).
All the Thunder did boost their stock was beat the Spurs in six games to advance to the Western Conference Finals, then hand the Warriors their first postseason loss at Oracle Arena in Game 1.
Suddenly, notching seven more wins doesn't seem like such a longshot.
For Wizards fans, the prospect of Kevin Durant getting a ring with the Thunder may draw mixed emotions.
It's hard not to root for the likeable local product who grew up going to Mystics games, but an OKC title torpedoes virtually all hope of luring him to Washington in free agency.