ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — You are correct that there are circumstantial reasons to dismiss Thursday’s 6-4 meltdown for the Red Sox bullpen. Not only was it Opening Day, but it was Game No. 1 for new manager Alex Cora. The cruelty of a 4-0, eighth-inning lead disappearing under his nose just begs melodrama.
The foreseeable nature of what happened Tropicana Field on Thursday night is not melodrama.
We were going to get here eventually. Whether it was Game No. 1, or 15 or 40. What happened on Thursday speaks to a pair of issues that are longstanding with the Red Sox, discussions that stretch back to last year and even beyond.
A little more foresight, a little more action on behalf of a few people, and maybe we aren’t discussing why the lead disappeared.
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First up: this bullpen was designed to be Carson Smith or bust. That, plus alternating thoughts of, "Tyler Thornburg can someday save us," and, "Screw it, we’ll just trade for a reliever at the deadline again."
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Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said over the winter he had interest in adding a left-handed reliever. The argument was made on this website, as far as back as November, that the Sox needed a righty reliever as well as a lefty reliever. Addison Reed departed, so too did Fernando Abad, although the latter wasn’t relied on much in 2017.
No one was brought in. Nobody. A baseball source said the Red Sox this spring discussed adding Greg Holland, who reportedly just agreed to a deal with the Cardinals for $14 million, but financial reasons kept the Sox from doing it. They’re going to be right up against the $237 million tier of the luxury tax threshold in 2018. They already have the highest payroll in baseball. But, if there’s a decent chance they go over that tax anyway via trade, why not now rather than July?
The Sox’ bullpen in 2017 had the second-best regular season ERA in the majors. But the ‘pen too was an ever-shifting landscape, with different pitchers succeeding for different stretches. That's good, but it also doesn't lend itself to certainty. Come the postseason, Matt Barnes — who looked good in a clean seventh inning Thursday — was not on the roster. David Price was the star.
Going into this offseason, then, the Sox ‘pen looked to be Craig Kimbrel, Smith, and everyone else. Joe Kelly put a little distance between him and Barnes and Heath Hembree, but all three are fastball-reliant righties. Robby Scott was the lead lefty.
Never mind building a bullpen with the postseason in mind, trying to put together a group that can match up with the likes of Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle of the Yankees. That would have been a worthwhile endeavor.
But, baby steps. Where is the established help for Smith? Where is Addison Reed’s replacement? How could the Red Sox look at last year and think that they’d be as well positioned without him? If Smith has a bad night, who do they turn to?
Well, there's one guy: Kimbrel. An otherworldly force, an amazing, dominant pitcher. But they won't turn to him, at least not yet. Here we are at issue No. 2, a repeat matter, a situation where one of the absolute best relievers in baseball is being restricted to certain situations. Specifically, again, save situations.
Cora and Kimbrel have to move away from this. The game on Thursday was lost in the eighth inning. If Kimbrel can pitch the ninth — as Cora said he could have — he can pitch the eighth.
Kimbrel said in February that saves are a “pretty stat, but at the end of the day it's about winning and losing games.”
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Kimbrel had a very short spring training because of a situation that means so much more than baseball: the health of his infant daughter Lydia. He went to Boston to be with her as she underwent a heart procedure.
He’s back with the team now, and he’s on the roster. Cora’s explanation for why Kimbrel wasn’t used in the eighth Thursday was not the easiest to follow.
“He was available, yeah [for the ninth],” Cora said. “For where we’re at right now physically, it doesn’t make — from what we’re trying to accomplish here, we need him for the long run."
One out on Opening Day in the eighth inning might well have been the difference. Yet, somehow, three outs in the ninth would make more sense for his physical usage? Let’s continue.
“So, if that situation presents, probably later... we’re talking about probably 15 days or something like that before where he’s really ready, he’ll be in in that situation,” Cora said.
That’s encouraging if indeed within a couple weeks Cora will use Kimbrel in these situations.
But what exactly is the physical issue here and now? Game 1 counts the same as Game 4. The same as Game 162. Again, if Kimbrel can pitch the ninth, why not the eighth?
“We decided we’re going to take care of him,” Cora said. “We know the short spring training. We know he’s ready. We don’t feel right now that’s a spot we should bring him in. Because it’s not fair for him. This is not — yeah, we got 24 guys and we got to think about the whole team, but we got 162 games. So, you know, we got to think about our players and take care of them and I think that’s the best way to take care of him right now.”
So the issue was getting him warm too quickly, or familiarity with men on? No. It sounds like the issue is collecting a save.
“Because then after that, he has to go out in the next inning,” Cora said.
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Wait. What? Why can’t Kimbrel be used in the eighth for one out, or two outs, or three — something within a normal range as he would in a typical ninth inning save — and that be it?
The day Cora was introduced as manager, he was asked about using a closer prior to the ninth.
“I believe that outs are very important,” Cora said. “Those conversations are going to come up throughout the offseason and through spring training. But outs are important. ... [If] there's three outs earlier in the game that we have to go with our best, that's what I believe in.”
Spring training conversations were interrupted for the most important of reasons for Kimbrel: his daughter.
Yet, this isn’t a new topic. It arose under John Farrell as well. And the logic is basic, and overwhelming.
"I’m just ready for Opening Day," Kimbrel said on Tuesday. "As far as the eighth or the ninth, things like that, we’ll just talk about that when we get there.”
What is left to discuss?
Kimbrel’s healthy, on the roster, available for the ninth. He’s phenomenal and can handle the eighth. You don’t need 18 sit-down conversations. You barely need one. Any initial discomfort in breaking routine will be outweighed by his 98 mph fastball.
Add in the fact Cora said he doesn't want lefty Bobby Poyner to make his major league debut in a high-leverage situation and the Sox put themselves in a high-leverage bind out of the gate.
It's just Game 1. But there will be other nights when Smith isn't on, other nights when the game is on the line in the eighth inning and the job begs for Kimbrel.
New manager, new season, old topics.