Bears can expect offense changes with new coach Matt Nagy – but what will those look like?

Andy Reid has been one of the elite practitioners of the West Coast offense, has been for a long, LONG time going back to his start playing and coaching for LaVell Edwards at BYU, being part of running it successfully in seven years at Green Bay, and building a superb career establishing its concepts as head coach in Philadelphia and Kansas City.

From their time together in those two places, Reid is also the coaching template for one Matt Nagy, who will bring key components of the Reid system to Chicago. What that means for an often compass-less Bears offense is still months away from unfolding, but a handful of elements in Nagy’s time with Reid hint at where the Bears will be heading under Nagy:

Run-pass balance changing?

The Bears sought a foundation/identity with the run game under John Fox. The Kansas City offense during Nagy’s years there was not:

Year          Run %

2017         41.1

2016         41.6

2015         45.6

2014         43.7

2013         43.0

Ball security-plus

Alex Smith blossomed as a quarterback when he got to Kansas City with Reid and Nagy, with very specific improvements.

In seven years with San Francisco, Smith had a pedestrian 59.3 completion percentage. He had just one year with an interception rate lower than 2 percent.

In five years under Reid and Nagy, Smith averaged 65.1 percent completions. He had no years with an INT rate higher than 1.6 percent, and averaged 1.4 percent for the five years.

And the completion percentage wasn’t from dink-and-dunk passing: Smith’s average per attempt with the 49ers was 6.0 yards; it is 7.5 for his Chiefs years.

Backs fit?

The lighter use of running backs in the offenses Nagy has been involved with raises an obvious question about whether current Bears personnel fit the offense he and his coordinator will install in Chicago. Jordan Howard is the Bears 230-pound bell-cow with consecutive 1,000-yard seasons; complementary Tarik Cohen is at the other end of the size spectrum at 181 pounds.

Do either fit?

The Kansas City offense during Nagy’s time there says “both.” Reid and Nagy were involved with and won with tailbacks of decidedly different physical traits:

Year          Chiefs No. 1 RB       Pounds

2017         Kareem Hunt             216

2016         Spencer Ware           229

2015         Charcandrick West  205

2014         Jamaal Charles        199

2013         Jamaal Charles        199

*                          *                          *

If it seems to be increasingly difficult to get a fix on emerging top coordinators, it’s not in your imagination. There’s a trend at work.

As the expiration date on coaches has shortened in recent years – Marc Trestman, two years, Bears; Jim Tomsula, one year, 49ers; Mike Mularkey, one year, Jaguars; Hue Jackson, one year, Raiders, to name a handful – so has the time-in-grade for coordinators, including Matt Nagy, who had one year as an offensive coordinator (he was Kansas City Chiefs co-coordinator, junior to vet Brad Childress the year before that) before jumping to Bears head coach.

He’s not unique:

NFL head coach                One year as coordinator for:

Vance Joseph, Denver     Miami Dolphins

Anthony Lynn, Chargers  Buffalo Bills

Bill O’Brien, Texans          New England Patriots*

Chuck Pagano, Colts       Baltimore Ravens

Mike Tomlin, Steelers       Minnesota Vikings

*Penn State head coach between New England and Houston

Adam Gase put in one year as Bears OC, then landed the Miami job. But Gase had put in two years as OC for Denver and Peyton Manning.

What this foreshadows is that if Nagy sparks the turnaround that eluded the Bears under John Fox, his coordinators automatically start showing up on those lists and start showing up on the interview circuit next year.