Cubs

The prospect that may change everything about the Cubs' long-term pitching plans

adbert_alzolay_pitcher_that_was_promised_slide.jpg
USA TODAY

The prospect that may change everything about the Cubs' long-term pitching plans

It doesn't take a mind reader to know how the Cubs feel about Adbert Alzolay.

When asked about the state of the pitching in the organization, Alzolay is the first name out of Theo Epstein's mouth.

When talking about starting pitching depth for 2018 and beyond, Alzolay's name is right there alongside Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler, even though the 22-year-old right-hander has yet to throw a pitch above Triple-A.

Even more than that, Alzolay could be the pitcher that changes the narrative of the Cubs farm system.

While they've developed a plethora of quality position players, the Cubs have yet to produce any meaningful pitching from their system under Epstein's regime despite excitement about players in the past.

According to Sahadev Sharma's research, the Cubs are last in baseball in innings pitched by pitchers they drafted (30 IP) since Epstein took over at the helm of the front office in 2012. 

Alzolay wasn't drafted — he was signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela — so even if he is The Pitcher That Was Promised, that wouldn't affect the bottom line by the aforementioned metric, but it would help begin to change the narrative about the lack of pitching that has come from the Cubs' system. (Kyle Hendricks was a homegrown player, but he wasn't drafted by the Cubs and spent a year-and-a-half in the Texas Rangers system before being traded to the Cubs. The same goes for Carl Edwards Jr.)

Alzolay didn't find his name on any of the Top 100 prospect lists released recently, but is listed as the Cubs' No. 2 prospect heading into 2018 by Baseball America. He enjoyed a breakout season last year, going 7-4 with a 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 in 22 starts between Advanced Class-A and Double-A ball.

"He's exceeded every expectation that I've had from a scouting standpoint," said Alex Suarez, the director of international pro scouting, at the Cubs Convention earlier this month. "My look is only one look, but our area guys were dead set on this is a guy we had to bring into our system and we had to sign.

"Not only does he have the physical tools, but in terms of mental makeup, he's a great teammate and he's a leader on and off the field. I think what sets him apart is the mental makeup. I don't think there's anything he's afraid to try.

"Pitching in the big leagues is not easy, no matter who you're facing that day. Let alone — this guy coming from where he's from in Venezuela, where things are not great. He's fearless."

The Cubs believe strongly in Alzolay to stick as a starting pitcher in the way guys like Carl Edwards Jr. have not been able to.

In fact, Epstein believes Alzolay could even approach ace level.

"[He's] a really interesting, high-ceiling starting pitcher who — if he reaches his potential — will someday be one of the 5, and closer to the 1 than the 5," Epstein said. "He's an exciting young kid with high character and electric stuff who's got a great starter kit. ... I think factoring him into the sorta-broad picture of our major-league depth makes sense for us."

Epstein and Co. like to go into each new season with around 9-10 options for starting pitchers to get through the year. Right now, the Cubs have Jon Lester, Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Tyler Chatwood and Montgomery and figure to sign at least one guy before the season begins, even if it's not one of the top pitchers on the market.

Beyond that group, Butler is an option along with Jen-Ho Tseng, Alec Mills, Luke Farrell and the Cubs are including Alzolay in that group, especially if they need an arm later in the season.

The plan is for Alzolay to begin the year with Triple-A Iowa and barring a setback or injury, the organization expects him to make his big-league debut at some point in 2018.

If Alzolay starts running up against his innings limit or the Cubs have five healthy, good starters rolling, they could move the young pitcher into a relief role to get him as an option for the big-league bullpen to help down the stretch.

As for 2019 or beyond, the Cubs aren't yet saving a spot in the Chicago rotation, but they're not ruling it out, either.

"He's taken huge steps forward and put himself in a position where he can help the big-league club," Cubs director of player development Jaron Madison said. "That's our hope. Now it's just about opportunity and Theo and Jed [Hoyer] will make those decisions when that time comes."

Javy Baez can do anything defensively, but what's next for him at the plate?

Javy Baez can do anything defensively, but what's next for him at the plate?

MESA, Ariz. — You don’t need to spend long searching the highlight reels to figure out why Javy Baez goes by “El Mago.”

Spanish for “The Magician,” that moniker is a fitting one considering what Baez can do with his glove and his arm up the middle of the infield. The king of tags, Baez also dazzles with his throwing arm and his range. He looks like a Gold Glove kind of player when you watch him do these amazing things. And it’s no surprise that in his first media session of the spring, he was talking about winning that award.

“Just to play hard and see what I can do. Obviously, try to be healthy the whole year again. And try to get that Gold Glove that I want because a lot of people know me for my defense,” he said Friday at Cubs camp. “Just try to get a Gold Glove and stay healthy the whole year.”

Those high expectations — in this case, being the best defensive second baseman in the National League — fall in line with everything the rest of the team is saying about their own high expectations. It’s been “World Series or bust” from pretty much everyone over the past couple weeks in Mesa.

Baez might not be all the way there just yet. Joe Maddon talked earlier this week about his reminders that Baez needs to keep focusing on making the easy plays while staying a master of the magnificent.

“What I talked to him about was, when he had to play shortstop, please make the routine play routinely and permit your athleticism to play. Because when the play requires crazinesss, you’re there, you can do that,” Maddon said. “But this straight up ground ball three-hopper to shortstop, come get the ball, play it through and make an accurate throw in a routine manner. Apparently that stuck. Because he told me once he thought in those terms, it really did slow it down for him. And he did do a better job at doing that.”

But the biggest question for Cubs fans when it comes to Baez is when the offense will catch up to his defense. Baez hit a game-winning homer run in his first major league game and smacked 23 of them last season, good for fifth on a team full of power bats. But arguably just as famous as Baez’s defensive magic is his tendency to chase pitches outside of the strike zone. He had 144 strikeouts last season and reached base at a .317 clip. Seven Cubs — including notable struggling hitters Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist — had higher on-base percentages in 2017.

Baez, for one, is staying focused on what he does best, saying he doesn’t really have any specific offensive goals for the upcoming season.

“I’m not worrying about too much about it,” he said. “I’m just trying to play defense, and just let the offense — see what happens.”

Maddon, unsurprisingly, talked much more about what Baez needs to do to become a better all-around player, and unsurprisingly that included being more selective at the plate.

“One of the best base runners in the game, one of the finest arms, most acrobatic, greatest range on defense, power. The biggest thing for me for him is to organize the strike zone,” Maddon said. “Once he does that, heads up. He’s at that point now, at-bat wise, if you want to get those 500, 600 plate appearances, part of that is to organize your zone, accept your walks, utilize the whole field, that kind of stuff. So that would be the level that I think’s the next level for him.”

Will Baez have a season’s worth of at-bats to get that done? The versatile Cubs roster includes a couple guys who split time between the infield and outfield in Zobrist and Ian Happ. Getting their more consistent bats in the lineup might mean sacrificing Baez’s defense on certain days. Baez, of course, also has the ability to slide over to shortstop to spell Addison Russell, like he did when Russell was on the disabled list last season.

Until Baez learns how to navigate that strike zone a bit better, it might make Maddon more likely to mix and match other options, rather than considering him an everyday lock like Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.

But like Russell, Albert Almora Jr. and Willson Contreras, Baez is one of the young players who despite key roles on a championship contender the last few years still have big league growth to come. And Maddon thinks that growth is right around the corner.

“I want to believe you’re going to see that this year,” Maddon said. “They’ve had enough major league at-bats now, they should start making some significant improvements that are easy to recognize. The biggest thing normally is pitch selection, I think that’s where it really shows up. When you have talented players like that, that are very strong, quick, all that other stuff, if they’re swinging at strikes and taking balls, they’re going to do really well. And so it’s no secret with Javy. It’s no secret with Addy. Addy’s been more swing mode as opposed to accepting his walks. That’s part of the maturation process with those two guys. Albert I thought did a great job the last month, two months of getting better against righties. I thought Jason looked really good in the cage today. And Willson’s Willson.

“The natural assumption is these guys have played enough major league at-bats that you should see something different this year in a positive way.”

MLB.com's Cubs' 2018 Top Prospects list full of potential impact pitchers

adbert.jpg
USA TODAY

MLB.com's Cubs' 2018 Top Prospects list full of potential impact pitchers

Could 2018 be the year that the Cubs finally see a top pitching prospect debut with the team? 

Thursday, MLB.com released its list of the Cubs' 2018 Top 30 Prospects, a group that includes six pitchers in the Top 10. The list ranks right-hander Adbert Alzolay as the Cubs' No 1. prospect, projecting him to debut with the team this season. 

Alzolay, 22, went 7-4 with a 2.99 ERA in 22 starts between Single-A Myrtle Beach and Double-A Tennessee last season. He also struck out 108 batters in 114 1/3 innings, using a repertoire that includes a fastball that tops out around 98 MPH (according to MLB.com).

Following Alzolay as the Cubs' No. 2 overall prospect is 19-year-old shortstop Aramis Ademan. Ademan hit .267 in just 68 games between Single-A Eugene and Single-A South Bend, though it should be noted that he has soared from No. 11 in MLB.com's 2017 ranks to his current No. 2 ranking. He is not projected to make his MLB debut until 2020, however.

Following Alzolay and Ademan on the list are five consecutive pitchers ranked 3-7, respectively. Oscar De La Cruz, No. 3 on the list, slides down from his 2017 ranking in which MLB.com listed him as the Cubs' top overall prospect. De La Cruz, 22, finished 2017 with a 3.34 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) between the Arizona League and Single-A Myrtle Beach.

De La Cruz is projected to make his MLB debut in 2019, while Jose Albertos (No. 4), Alex Lange (No. 5), Brendon Little (No. 6) and Thomas Hatch (No. 7) are projected to make their big league debuts in 2019 or 2020. All are right-handed (with the exception of Little) and starting pitchers.

Hatch (third round, 2016) and Lange (30th overall, 2017) and Little (27th overall, 2017) were all top draft picks by the Cubs in recent seasons.

Having numerous starting pitchers on the cusp of the big leagues represents a significant change of pace for the Cubs. 

Since Theo Epstein took over as team president in Oct. 2011, a plethora of top prospects have debuted and enjoyed success with the Cubs. Majority have been position players, though.

The likes of Albert Almora, Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo and Addison Russell all contributed to the Cubs winning the World Series in 2016. Similarly, Ian Happ enjoyed a fair amount of success after making his MLB debut last season, hitting 24 home runs in just 115 games.

Ultimately, Alzolay would be the Cubs' first true top pitching prospect to make it to the big leagues in the Theo Epstein era. While him making it to the big leagues in 2018 is no guarantee, one would think a need for pitching will arise for the Cubs at some point, whether it be due to injury or simply for September roster expansion.

The Cubs have enjoyed tremendous success in recent years in terms of their top prospects succeeding in the MLB. If the trend continues, Alzolay should be a force to reckon with on the North Side for years to come.