Instant Analysis: Rays tee off on A's pitching, take first game of series


Instant Analysis: Rays tee off on A's pitching, take first game of series


The A’s are gearing up for a long day of baseball with Saturday’s doubleheader at Tropicana Field.

That’ll give them the opportunity to forget what went down Friday night.

The Tampa Bay Rays bashed five homers off Oakland pitching and routed the A’s 13-4 to open a four-game series that features the rare scheduled doubleheader Saturday.

The A’s came in an American League-worst 8-20 on the road, and this was hardly the performance they were looking for as they look to reverse their course away from the Coliseum. Tampa Bay scored in each of the first five innings and chased A’s starter Andrew Triggs by the fourth. The right-hander was charged with eight runs on nine hits.

If the quickest way to forget such a game is to get right back on the field, the A’s will get that chance. Saturday’s twin bill will be Oakland’s first scheduled doubleheader on the road since 2001.

Triggs trending the wrong direction:

The right-hander had a 2.12 ERA after his May 16 start against Seattle. Since then, he’s posted an 0-4 record and 9.64 ERA over four outings (20 ER in 18 2/3 IP) and will need to turn things around quickly if he’s going to remain in the rotation. Things started rough in the first when he walked two of his first four batters, then gave up Steven Souza’s three-run homer. Mallex Smith added a two-run shot in the fourth, when Triggs was lifted with two outs.

Rays back up the numbers: This series pits two of the majors’ top slugging teams. The Rays came in second in the bigs with 92 homers and the A’s were fifth with 87. Then the home team went out and showed exactly how it accumulated those numbers. After Souza’s three-run shot in the first, Smith added his two-run shot in the fourth and Logan Morrison a solo shot off Triggs. It didn’t get better for Zach Neal, who allowed Tim Beckham’s homer in the fifth and Corey Dickerson’s three-run shot later in the inning.

Smith is a super sub: The Rays, who moved to a game above .500 as they try to make up ground in the AL East, suffered a major setback when center fielder Kevin Kiermaier fractured his hip Thursday and will miss at least six to eight weeks. But Smith filled in Friday and went 2-for-3 with three runs scored.

Brugman’s crazy debut: Outfielder Jaycob Brugman made his major league debut with a start in left field for the A’s. He went 0-for-4 but he’ll never forget a moment in the fourth, when Souza hit a ball off a catwalk high above Tropicana Field that went for a triple. Balls that hit the catwalk are in play if they strike it in foul terroritiroy, and Krugman tried to follow the path of the ball off the ricochet but couldnt’ make the catch as it fell to the ground.

Vogt provides a highlight: : Stephen Vogt hit his fourth homer to provide a highlight for the A’s in the seventh.

From 2.9 to 100 percent: Tracking A's playoff chances throughout the season


From 2.9 to 100 percent: Tracking A's playoff chances throughout the season

In the last 30 seasons of Major League Baseball, no team had made the playoffs with the lowest Opening Day payroll in the league.

Until now.

Against all odds, the Oakland A's are heading to the postseason. How on earth did this happen?

FanGraphs has tracked each team's playoff chances throughout the regular season. Oakland opened the season with just a 9.2 percent chance of making the playoffs. That number dipped to a season-low 2.9 percent on April 14, when the A's fell to 5-10. 

Oakland's chances remained below 20 percent through the month of June, dropping to just 3.1 percent on June 15 when they were 34-36 and 11 games out of the second Wild Card position.

But then something happened. Despite numerous injuries to their starting rotation, the A's caught fire. Oakland would win 21 of its next 27 games to reach the All-Star break at 55-42. Suddenly, the A's playoff chances were up to 30.9 percent.

Surely this was just a fluke. There was no way Oakland could maintain this level of play into the second half.

But they did. The A's won nine of their first 13 games out of the break, raising their playoff chances to 51.8 percent on August 2, the first time all season they had crossed the 50 percent barrier.

As August went on, the A's just kept winning. Following a 3-2 victory against the Dodgers on August 8, Oakland's playoff chances reached 70 percent for the first time. On August 21, they climbed above 80 percent. The A's finished August with a record of 81-55 and a 90.9 percent probability of reaching the postseason.

On September 24, that number hit 100 and it became official. For the first time since 2014, the Oakland A's are going to the playoffs.

A's have opportunity to build reputation as elite team in MLB playoffs

A's have opportunity to build reputation as elite team in MLB playoffs

The A's playoff chase did not end with the traditional cathartic bang, but it came close enough given the circumstances.
Oh, they got in all right. It’s just that their postgame celebration after beating Seattle, 7-3, was a bit muted (wet but controlled is probably the best way to put it) by the fact that the achievement had been achieved in pregame. Tampa Bay finally ended the last shredlet of doubt by expiring at home to the New York Yankees four hours earlier, and the value of the A's winning was mostly to stay on New York’s considerable heels.
That, ultimately, is the only discordant note the A’s have played in the last 100 days – they didn’t get to do the deed themselves.
In fact, they not only didn’t do the deed themselves, they watched the team they’ve been chasing do it for them and stay an arm’s length ahead of the Oaklands for the right to host the wild card game next Wednesday. They still trail New York by the equivalent of two games with five to play, so there is no benefit to kicking back and soaking anything in. The work is done when the work is done, and this work is not yet done.
But it’s damned fine work by any measure.
The Elephants have made themselves the fourth-best team in baseball in half a season by not shrinking before the task thrust upon them, by never letting up as they continued to consume starting pitchers at a rate that should be found in last-place teams, by being the equivalent in those 100 days of a 113-win team.
It therefore becomes impossible to make a compelling case that these are merely plucky overachievers getting hot at the right time. Overachievers don’t do this for 3½ months. They have earned the right to walk with the game’s kings.
Now, they have to prove they can run with them. That’s October’s task.
It’s perfectly acceptable to marvel at the Oakland turnaround, not just from their middling start this year but the three years of uninspiring sub-mediocrity before that. It’s fine to be amazed at the way they chewed through their own starting rotation, in some cases more than once, and still ended up a formidable team. It’s normal to note that they were a mediocre team at home until mid-June, then won three-quarters of their games at the grim Carpathian castle known as the Coliseum.
Why, it’s even acceptable to mock them for their modest home attendance, as though that has anything to do with what the roster did before all those empty seats.
But they earned all of it, and now all that accomplishment looks to get them the rawest deal of all the playoff paths – a game in the Bronx against the more solidly built Yankees, and then if that goes well, a series against the team with the best record this year and one of the 15 best in the game’s history by winning percentage in Boston.
And they’ll be the team people know the least about because, well, because people seek out only that knowledge they want to possess, especially when it comes to baseball. They don’t have a Cy Young or MVP candidate, or even a Rookie of the Year. They have the likely Manager of the Year in Bob Melvin, a potential Mariano Rivera Award winner in Blake Treinen, and two Gold Glove candidates in first baseman Matt Olson and third baseman Matt Chapman. They may even have an Executive of the Year in Billy Beane.
But they also have that twitchy postseason history over the past 25 years, in which they have carried teams as strong and solid and in some ways deeper and more complete and still have been left behind by better teams with better players doing better things when the things mattered most. That history may not be this team’s, but this team is wearing the laundry of those other teams, and that’s just how history works.
So the A’s for all their good deeds still have a national reputation to build, and this is that opportunity. Whether it is done in Oakland or New York, Boston or Houston, they are on the verge of becoming a national team again, of being the 2013 Warriors en route to a glory nobody could imagine even now.
Or they could fail, in which case all they’ve done is serve notice that they are badasses in training. That would do as well given their modest origins in spring.
But if they’ve gone to the trouble of becoming this good, they might as well stay and enjoy the décor awhile. The A’s are either going to be the real deal, or they’re going to be close enough to see the landmarks and read the signs that led the way.