How scouts evaluate Michkov, Carlsson, Smith's fit with Sharks

• Editor's Note: Sheng Peng will be a regular contributor to NBC Sports California’s Sharks coverage. You can read more of his coverage on San Jose Hockey Now, listen to him on the San Jose Hockey Now Podcast, and follow him on Twitter at @Sheng_Peng.

What are the Sharks thinking with the No. 4 pick?

Predictably, they’re not telling. Educated guesses from Draft experts are pointing at Leo Carlsson or Will Smith…and not polarizing Russian winger Matvei Michkov. But the 2023 NHL Draft is still six weeks away. And there still is a drumbeat in the industry for Michkov, thought by some to have first-overall talent.

“If I were a Sharks fan and they pass on this kid, I'd be upset,” one scout told San Jose Hockey now.

Here’s what three NHL scouts, all from outside of the Sharks organization, are saying about Michkov, Carlsson, and Smith.

Are there concerns with Michkov’s character? How does Carlsson’s skating limit him and which Shark is he like? What potential Sharks boxes might Smith and Michkov fail to check off?

RELATED: Former Sharks goalie Hill finding success with Golden Knights

Sheng Peng: Why should the Sharks draft Michkov at No. 4?

Scout #1: I saw him live for the first time in Dallas, Texas, during the COVID-19 U18 season. Him and [Connor] Bedard were on the ice, going head to head, they're in the same tournament, and I left there going this kid is better than that kid. I thought Michkov was better. Now, that's old information. 

But then I saw him at Ivan Hlinka and other stuff before Russia got shut out. It was the same thing over and over that this guy's goalscoring ability, he's one of the most dangerous players near the net I've ever seen. Odd-angle shots, from behind the net, in tight. It's an elite, elite goalscoring skill-set. 

If and when he comes over to the NHL, he should be one of the most dynamic goalscorers in the league. No question.

There's no reason he can't be a Nikita Kucherov to a team that wins a Cup. I don't think his compete level is [much] worse than a Will Smith or Leo Carlsson. He's a little bit unknown because of the Russian factor. But I always thought he played hard. 

His goalscoring ability is just insane, and he can make plays too. He is a really, really special, elite. I was more impressed with him [the first time that I saw him] than like when I first saw Auston Matthews or Jack Hughes.

Scout #2: He's incredibly offensively talented. Just every facet of offense you would want. Vision, hands, skill. He's quick in short areas. 

He is on the small side and he's a little bit heavier, so his speed overall isn't as good as it could be. But you're talking he's above-average, instead of elite. 

Confident with swagger, even playing in the KHL. It was like when he had the puck, you knew he was gonna do something with it, which is like a different level of confidence.

It's like McDavid, when he gets the puck, you're like, oh boy, what's gonna happen? He had kind of that element, even in the KHL, which is really crazy. Everything goes right for him, he's not that far off of probably what Bedard is gonna be.

Scout #3: Michkov's main strengths are obviously on the offensive side, with his wrist shot and creativity being his main assets. 

His deception with the puck is elite, which makes him difficult to read and allows him to make plays and get his shots through. His lack of size and speed is a concern, but he's talented enough to overcome it. He's already very agile and the speed should improve over time. 

He has potential to become a Kucherov/Kaprizov-type offensive star.

SP: How concerned are you about the “other stuff” with Michkov?

Scout #3: Everyone has their baggage, his just happens to be a bit heavier. It increases the risk factor, but there are risks with every prospect. 

But I can understand GMs and owners having less tolerance for risk, which means he likely drops. However, the potential reward should outweigh the risks pretty quickly in that 3-to-6 range.

SP: What about the supposed character concerns with Michkov?

Scout #1: I keep hearing character concerns. I ask, can I ask what they are? I get nothing. I get nothing of substance. 

If I was an executive working for a team that might be in that range, like if I'm the Arizona Coyotes at No. 6, I'm telling the media that we're probably not taking him. We've heard that there's character concerns there. 

Part of me thinks some of it is disingenuous, trying to manipulate the Draft. Like I'm sure Washington [at No. 8] would be very happy to have him come there.

Scout #3: Nothing concrete [that I’ve heard]. I've heard he's not the nicest person.

SP: Why should the Sharks draft Leo Carlsson?

Scout #1: He's the one guy, if he gets to No. 4 and the Sharks pass on Michkov to take him, I'll get it.

Because he is so good. And he can come over a year or two. He'd be playing for the Sharks in '24. 

Everybody I'm talking to, I think the league will develop him into a center. And he'll be fine. He's big. He's immensely skilled. Really intelligent, really good scoring, really good playmaking ability.

I would think his floor would be like a Tomas Hertl. Not a speedy guy, but long, skilled, can score. Can make plays using his body down low. 

Scout #2: He is a sure bet. 

I would say he was a little wound down at the end of the year. He actually had a good playoff. But the season wore on him a little bit, he was off to an amazing start. Then hit the wall a little bit middle of the year. 

But yeah, Carlsson, he's got the best blend of tools [of this group] that you would covet in a top-three or top-six forward. No question. He's going to be a first power play net front. Top-three [forward] probably, top-six if he doesn't work out.

In any other year, without the guys in front of him, you're probably talking No. 1 [pick]. He's the No. 1 in a lot of Drafts.

Scout #3: Carlsson is not a flashy offensive player, but he's highly effective. More of a playmaker, but he can finish plays from shorter distances. He also brings size and two-way capability, making him a well-rounded forward. 

Skating is a little bit of a concern but not too much. I project him to become a top-line forward who makes everyone around him better.

SP: How about Carlsson’s skating, how big a concern is that?

Scout #1: I think it will get better. But also if it doesn't, he is so intelligent, so long, so sizable, and so skilled. He's got the other assets to overcome it and be great.

Scout #2: He's a big kid. But they can make him a little bit less slower and clunky. No issues with the skating.

Scout #3: It will likely limit him from becoming a superstar, but I'm not all that worried about it. He's proven himself in one of the best leagues in the world at age 18, not just being able to play there but to be an impact player. 

I do project him as a future center, regardless of the skating limitations. He's so smart and competitive and he makes others around him better, and those are the qualities I look for in centers. He was only sparingly used at center last season at the U18 tournaments, but when he was, he looked much better than he did on the wing.

SP: Why should the Sharks pick Will Smith at No. 4?

Scout #1: High-end skill, high-end offensive brain, very creative. 
First shot sniper, can wire pucks on net, can make high-end plays. Can do it with pace.

When you're picking that high, you really find comfort in picking what you know. I know the kid personally, I know everybody around this kid. With the Massachusetts stuff, you're right, Grier and Fitzgerald, Tim Burke of course, if they pass on Will Smith, it won't be for a lack of information. They'll have more than anybody.

Scout #2: High, high offensive motor, creativity. Killer shot, vision. 

The competitiveness comes out in a different way that we're seeing now with modern kids. It's more of an offensive hunger. Not so much on the backcheck? It's not so much on the penalty kill. He'll do those things, but it's not what he wants to be out there doing. 

He'll pass up, if a guy on the team is slapping for the puck, and he doesn't want to give it to him, he's not gonna give it to him. He'll circle the wagons, try to find a point of entry himself. Drives the center lane all the time, he's very attack-oriented. Everything points to the net.

So that's what you're getting with him. You're gonna get really high offensive creativity and effort and it's maybe not going to come back on the other side of the puck. But his scoring ability and shot and the offensive tools are amazing. He might be more on the smaller side, but today's NHL, a six-footer is not undersized.

Scout #3: Smith is a multi-threat offensive weapon who can beat you with his hands, shot, and playmaking. He's the best skater and the youngest of the three. 

His lack of a proper defensive game is a concern but he's talented and competitive enough offensively to make up for it. I project him to become a top-line forward who scores a lot of points.

SP: What are your concerns about Smith?    

Scout #1: Just kind of very one-dimensional. He cheats the game a lot. Not much defensive accountability, not much puck management. He's really going to have to mature his game.

I don't think he checks off the compete box or the size box. He's small. He doesn't skate like Jack Hughes or Logan Cooley. He's an above-average skater. He's not a great, dynamic skater. There's a chance that he ends up being a winger in the NHL.

He's not Mitch Marner-good. When I hear he's gonna go three or four, I'm like, really? I've always been a big Will Smith fan, but I think the hype's gotten a little out of hand.

If Columbus takes him at No. 3, which is kind of the buzz right now, I'm like, wow, I don't see that.

Scout #3: His defensive game will need to get a lot better if he wants to be a center in the NHL, but he has all the tools for it. It's up to him to decide if he wants it or not, but I think he’ll get there.

SP: How would you compare Smith to Michkov?

Scout #1: Everything that Smith does, Michkov is just amplified. His shot's better. Puck skill is better. Offensive instincts are better. Playmaking is better. 

If Michkov was an American, and he would have centered that [U18] line with [Gabe] Perreault and [Ryan] Leonard all year, we would have a legit, who is going to go [first-overall]? 

If San Jose passes on Michkov for Smith, it's literally just we don't want to deal with the maintenance of trying to bring him over. I think it's a short-sighted decision. I think it's a decision based on the next year or two or three not so much like, what's the best move for us [long-term]? 

When these two are in their prime, I don't think it's gonna be close to myself.

Scout #2: He's honestly not dissimilar to, he'd be a lesser version of Michkov with better skating. It's a real offensive dynamic. Very confident, bordering on selfish, bordering on arrogance. But you get that with a lot of the US development guys.

SP: Who would you take if you were the Sharks, and who do you think that they take?

Scout #1: Just watching and observing what they've been up to lately, seeing the kind of players Mike Grier seems to covet and then just talking to other scouts, there's definitely a premium being put on size there. Smith is under six feet, right? 

There's [also] been a premium there on we need competitive players. Can't really say that Will Smith kind of checks off the Sharks' boxes. But maybe he's just so talented offensively that they take him at four if he's there. I would think Carlsson is the guy that they're really hoping gets to them at four.

Scout #2: I think you roll the dice on Michkov. There's an offensive dynamic there that's too good to pass up. That being said, if they want the sure bet, Carlsson, you cannot go wrong with that pick.

Scout #3: Considering how long Columbus has been looking for that No. 1 center, my guess is they'll take either Carlsson or Smith, with Carlsson being the more likely candidate because of his size and two-way capability. 

The Sharks will likely take whoever is left out of [Carlsson and Smith]. Centers are so valuable and Michkov's baggage makes it close enough to justify those selections.

Scout #1: If I were a Sharks fan and they pass on [Michkov], I'd be upset.