The Sharks apparently sent the Tampa Bay Lightning into a tailspin.
The Lightning has lost three of their last eight games since the calendar flipped, including one Thursday night to the Toronto Maple Leafs. San Jose handed Tampa Bay the first of those losses on Jan. 5, in one of the Sharks’ most impressive performances this season.
Of course, the use of "tailspin" was purely tongue-in-cheek. It’s far too early to say a team that only lost seven times in regulation in the first half the season is “coming down to earth.” Even with Thursday’s loss, the Lightning is still nine points clear of the Calgary Flames in the race for the President’s Trophy.
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Tampa Bay's not-quite-a-funk began thanks in large part to what was arguably the best third period of the Sharks' season. Nursing a 3-2 lead entering the final 20 minutes, San Jose scored twice and held the Lightning to just 10 shot attempts across all situations, including only eight during 5-on-5 play.
Against Tampa Bay, San Jose played to its strengths and possessed the puck. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Sharks ranked no worse than fifth in their share of 5-on-5 shot attempts (first), unblocked attempts (second), shots (second), scoring chances (second), and high-danger chances (fifth) entering Friday.
But part of what made their performance against the Lightning so noteworthy was, well, that it came against the Lightning. Tampa Bay is in the top seven of each of those aforementioned metrics, and boasts one of the league’s deepest lineups up front and on the blue line. There’s a reason they’re so far ahead of the rest of the league.
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The Sharks’ win was not an outlier, though. San Jose is 12-9-1 against teams currently in playoff position, and boasts solid underlying numbers against that group.
| 5v5 CF% | 55.53 |
| 5v5 FF% | 55.33 |
| 5v5 SF% | 54.74 |
| 5v5 SCF% | 54.56 |
| 5v5 HDCF% | 54.44 |
Those numbers are right around what the Sharks have posted on the season as a whole, albeit slightly lower. That control hasn’t necessarily translated into 5-on-5 goals, however, as the Sharks have been outscored 54-49. In all, they’ve scored on around 8.5 percent of their 5-on-5 shots against playoff teams, while Martin Jones and Aaron Dell have stopped about 88.7 percent of the shots they’ve faced.
That’s fairly emblematic of the first half of San Jose’s season, which is when 18 of the Sharks’ 22 games against teams in position to make the postseason occurred. Jones has been better lately, and the Sharks have tightened up defensively. Dell is still trying to rediscover his early-season form, but Jones’ improvement may be enough to assume San Jose's save percentage will rebound.
It’s fair to assume the playoff picture will change during that time, too. One team in the Eastern Conference is within five points of the last Wild Card spot (Buffalo), while five teams in the West can say the same (Edmonton, Anaheim, Vancouver, St. Louis, Arizona).
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This being the parity-pursuing NHL, all but nine teams are in the playoff bubble right around the All-Star break. If you expand our sample to include those teams, the Sharks are 20-12-4 against teams with a conceivable shot at the postseason. Unsurprisingly, they’re also about as strong of a possession team against those teams as they are against the entirety of the league.
| 5v5 CF% | 56.10 |
| 5v5 FF% | 56.00 |
| 5v5 SF% | 55.43 |
| 5v5 SCF% | 56.17 |
| 5v5 HDCF% | 57.46 |
| 5v5 GF | 83 |
| 5v5 GA | 81 |
In other words, the Sharks aren’t just making their hay against cellar-dwellers, and should be largely encouraged by their 5-on-5 performance against playoff teams. There is the risk of parsing down a still-developing sample size, which is why we didn’t examine the Sharks' special-teams performance against those teams. But, it’s still worth keeping an eye on down the stretch given the remainder of San Jose’s schedule.
In addition to Saturday’s trip to Tampa, the Sharks will also play the defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals three days later. In all, 26 of San Jose's 33 remaining games are against teams currently within five points of a playoff spot.
As races tighten up down the stretch, that number will change. Still, it’s no thing that the Sharks have played particularly well against the teams that comprise the bulk of their schedule. That includes the Lightning, who have only lost consecutive games (in regulation or otherwise) once this season.
It still won’t be a tailspin if Tampa Bay loses on Saturday, but it would be another important notch in San Jose’s belt.