Predicting the Warriors’ 2018-19 season is hardly worth the effort – if all you’re looking for is the answer to the identity of the eventual world champion.
I mean, those tests will all come back positive for one last Oakland parade ... unless (and this is the caveat that saves you from the Freezing Cold Takes guy) they suffer some catastrophic injury or injuries.
But let’s say for the purpose of argument that luck doesn’t usually run that bad. So what, other than rings, can we predict for Year Five of the Golden Age?
A daily dose of 'Where's Kevin Going?'
Sorry, but that’s how it plays in the new fortuneteller’s media landscape. Speculation on Durant’s next team began after Year One, and it has not only not abated after Year Two, it has intensified.
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Unlike Klay Thompson, who has all but signed a new deal, Durant has played coy and let the specuguessing run rampant, mostly toward the New York Knicks with the Los Angeles Clippers a considerable second. Now we can’t give you what he’ll do, but we can give you how often the punditocracy will cover it -- Every. Damned. Day.
The chance of him leaving: Currently 55 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 15 percent.
Less talk about Thompson and Green
It only stands to reason that if Durant is leaving, there will be plenty of money for the other two potential free agents, in which case much of the payroll drama will be made moot.
The chance of them leaving: Thompson, zero percent, with an margin of error of zero percent. Green, 30 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 30 percent depending on Durant.
More technicals
Golden State Warriors
Team Zen doesn’t project itself on the continually shifting lineup of officials. But, they led the league in T’s a year ago, and they seem to remain sufficiently dissatisfied with the human whistles.
And as more and more veteran officials with more flexible tempers hit retirement age, the replacements have bones to make. Plus, the Warriors don’t back down easily, so expect more swords to clash in the new year. That is, unless new officials official Monty McCutchen can figure out to make refs a bit less imperious and a bit more flexible.
The chance of them winning the T war: 70 percent, with a margin of error of 15 percent plus or minus depending on how many times they see Scott Foster. They've gotta be themselves, and part of the deal is the chips they carry on thei fielders when it comes to the officials.
Fewer nights off
The theory goes that the Warriors have been trying to create a deeper bench so that their core six can remain constantly in the 32-35 minute/game range, and once DeMarcus Cousins gets cleared to play, maybe get some nights off to be fresh for the real season in April.
But the bench does not look fully formed yet, and the new team mantra of having fun rather than focusing on the grind is as likely to get in the way of the grand schedule plan. The Warriors want to make a different statement than they did a year ago, and the occasionally sludgy moments of a year ago may continue for the first part of the new season.
In short, fewer nights off for everyone until Cousins can make more nights off possible. The chance of this happening: 38 percent, with a margin of error of 12 percent. Steve Kerr is in charge of this, so he can’t bet into the line.
Making the Lakers the Lakers again
This is the narrative that feeds itself, and suddenly the Warriors are being positioned to have a rival they don’t actually have. As we have said before, if the Lakers become a rival, it’s because something went bad with the Warriors.
But because we have been hammered with the idea since the moment LeBron James headed west, it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy that might actually offer a bit of extracurricular fuel for a team looking for reasons to get jazzed about the day.
The chance of the Lakers becoming the Warriors’ new version of the Clippers, The Rivalry That Died Too Quickly: 60 percent, with a margin for error of 11 percent. Based on the two games this past week, the Warriors seem to want this is much as the Lakers. I just don’t know why they should want it.
The Oakland conundrum
Logically, a new building is a good thing for the people moving into it. Realistically, the waves of nostalgia about the current arena tinged with bitterness about Oakland being abandoned will make this a weird season for the fan base.
To say Oakland deserved better misses the point; it deserved better with the Raiders, but the Raiders have done nothing this past quarter-century -- save kick its fan base in the junction. As for the Warriors, they won’t know what they’ve got until it’s gone, and since there’s no convincing them otherwise, we’ll just consider it a real estate deal and move on.
The chance of everyone wishing they weren't leaving: If everyone includes Joe Lacob, zero. If you exclude the principals, 99.3 percent with a margin for error of three percent in case you like to do your retail shopping while watching basketball.
The championship
Of course. Why would you ask? With a margin for error of five percent plus or minus depending on human frailties. Waiting for players to get hurt is no fun, so just pretend for one more year that they are all invulnerable when it matters.
What else is a dynasty for?