Seven things we learned in Warriors' up-and-down February
Losses to two of the NBA’s most storied franchises bookended what was an up-and-down month for the Warriors. A close loss to the Boston Celtics got things started, and a blowout loss to the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers ended it.So what can be gleaned from the Warriors’ second full month of the 2020-21 NBA season?Kelly Oubre appears to be recapturing the offensive production that made him such a desirable (and expensive) addition to the roster in the wake of Klay Thompson’s injury, Steph Curry’s MVP-caliber campaign reached new heights, and the organization’s future looks bright in the Sunshine State.Here are seven Warriors takeaways from the shortest month of the year.
The Warriors stood in a tie for eighth in the Western Conference standings as the calendar turned to February, owning an 11-9 record. The team’s first three-game winning streak of the season had the Warriors in seventh for the final days of the month, before Sunday night’s lopsided loss in LA pushed them back to eighth.
The two most frustrating defeats have to be back-to-back losses against very beatable Eastern Conference teams in the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets, with the cumulative margin being just six points. A few bounces go the Warriors’ way, and Golden State owns the fifth spot in the standings as March gets underway.
A brutal six-game stretch that began with Sunday’s loss to the Lakers will put the Warriors’ collective feet to the fire to begin March, as five of the seven teams ahead of the Dubs in the West make up the upcoming slate.
If the Warriors can come out of that stretch with a 3-2 or even 4-1 record, it would be a major win and could vault them up the table in a hurry.
Most of you likely know that the Warriors potentially could end up with a pair of first-round picks in the 2021 NBA Draft. If the Minnesota Timberwolves’ first-round pick ends up outside the top three after the 2021 Draft Lottery, the pick will belong to general manager Bob Myers and the Warriors’ front office.
Minnesota currently owns the league’s worst record by a significant margin (7-28), and fired head coach Ryan Saunders on Feb. 21. The T-Wolves are 0-4 since letting Saunders go, and seem destined to end up with at minimum a bottom-three record. In the NBA’s updated draft lottery odds, the three worst teams in the regular season all get a 40.1 percent chance of earning a top-three pick (per Tankathon). If Minnesota ends up inside the top-three, the pick will be conveyed to the Warriors as a 2022 unprotected selection.
As the standings sit right now, the Warriors would have the No. 20 overall pick in the 2021 draft courtesy of their own first-round pick, and potentially could have the No. 4 or No. 5 selection depending on the way the lottery balls fall.
The Warriors' 2021 pick does have a protection as part of the Kelly Oubre trade, and will be sent to the Oklahoma City Thunder if the selection falls outside the top 20. So while Warriors fans are hoping for two first-round picks, they just as easily could have zero.
Some examples of players that have been drafted at No. 20 in past years include Philadelphia 76ers standout Matisse Thybulle, Brooklyn Nets guard Caris LeVert and Detroit Pistons guard Delon Wright.
Steve Kerr’s expectations of the Warriors being a top-10 defense were hampered early in the season by a continued inability to play without fouling. Rookie center James Wiseman stood out most in this regard, as the 19-year-old paces the Warriors with an average of 3.2 fouls per game, despite playing just over 20 minutes per game.
Golden State was committing the second-most fouls per game of any NBA team through Jan. 31, only behind the Eastern Conference doormat Washington Wizards. Averaging 23.1 personal fouls per game in January, the Warriors limited that number to just 19.9 per contest over the past 28 days.
Unsurprisingly, the Warriors’ defensive efficiency ranked 10th in the NBA through Jan. 31, but rose to fifth in the league by the end of February.
Wiseman’s youth and inexperience will lead to some sloppy defense at times, but there was a clear correlation that when the Warriors have played solid on that end of the floor without putting opponents on the foul line, the defense improves significantly as a whole.
There has never been a question that Draymond Green is an elite passer, but he took that to a different level over the past month. Standing above widely respected point guards and floor generals like Trae Young and James Harden, Green paced the NBA in total assists over the month of February.
Making it even more impressive is the fact that Green started 10 of the Warriors’ 15 games over that span at center after injuries to Wiseman and Kevon Looney.
Draymond is on pace to shatter his career mark for assists per game, as he’s dishing out 8.5 per game on the season.
Even after Green missed time to start the regular season, he has done an impeccable job of meshing a group full of new faces and finding his teammates for scoring opportunities. He has blossomed into an absolute point forward this season, and the Warriors will need that skill set as the second half of the season gets underway in a few weeks.
Much was made of the 25-year-old’s historically slow start shooting from 3-point range, but Oubre made major strides in February. After shooting just 4.8 percent in four December games and 27.5 percent in January, Oubre knocked down 43 percent of his 3-point attempts in February. He even outpaced arguably the greatest shooter of all time for the month, as Steph Curry made 41.9 percent of his shots from downtown.
Averaging over 20 points per game and making 50 percent of his shots is much more what the Warriors had in mind when the team shelled out north of $80 million including luxury tax penalties to acquire Oubre in the wake of Klay Thompson’s season-ending Achilles injury.
His defense and overall energy has remained steady throughout the season, but if he can continue to contribute offensively the way he has these past four weeks, the Warriors’ offense will benefit immensely.
Despite Curry's scorching-hot month, he still likely won’t be able to ascend into the upper echelon of NBA MVP candidates unless the Warriors climb into the top four of the West standings. It is an award based much more on team performance than individual accolades, but Curry’s numbers are among the best he’s ever produced in his 12-year career.
Steph’s offensive rating of 125 for the last month only was equaled once during his first MVP campaign in 2014-15, in an April where the Warriors played just eight games. He also only topped 125 three times for a month in his follow-up MVP season of 2015-16, with one of those coming in a three-game October.
Curry has more 3-pointers than any player in the NBA by a wide margin this season, and still can captivate the league’s fanbase like only a handful of players can when he is on.
While he isn't likely to end up as an MVP finalist unless the Warriors show more consistency, Curry’s numbers as his 33rd birthday approaches (March 14) are nothing short of remarkable.
The Warriors long have had one of the G League’s most successful affiliates under its wing in the Santa Cruz Warriors, with championships in 2007 and 2015. Due to COVID-19, the G League elected to have its teams compete in a bubble format similar to the NBA’s playoff setup for the end of the 2019-20 regular season.
Santa Cruz lost three of its first four contests, before rattling off an eight-game winning streak to ascend to the No. 2 spot in the standings, with three games remaining.
Jordan Poole, Nico Mannion and Jeremy Lin have headlined the Warriors’ surge, as the latter two combined for 52 points in the most recent Santa Cruz victory.
It’s unclear how much of a contribution in the NBA those three or any of the other guys playing with Santa Cruz will make, but Mannion, Poole and Alen Smailagic all are signed to NBA contracts.
If they can carry over their success in Orlando to the NBA, the Warriors could get a major boost from their in-house youth for the second half of the 2020-21 regular season.
