The Boston Bruins are an interesting team entering the 2022-23 season.
Many casual observers don't view the B's as a real Stanley Cup contender. The Bruins have advanced past the second round of the playoffs just once since 2013. Boston was eliminated in Game 7 of the first round by the Carolina Hurricanes last season because it couldn't win a single road game in the series. The roster also is fairly old and a bit top heavy.
However, many of the analytics/predictive models view the Bruins quite favorably. For example, The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn predicted the regular season finish of all 32 teams using on his model, and the Bruins were sixth overall, one spot ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
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On Tuesday, we looked at five reasons why the Bruins can win the 2023 Stanley Cup title. Now we'll do the opposite and examine five reasons why they won't lift the best trophy in sports next spring. Stay tuned for our final prediction next week before Opening Night.
Loaded Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference
If the the Bruins don't win the Stanley Cup, the brutally difficult competition in the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference as a whole likely will be the main reason why.
Boston Bruins
Three of the five teams with the best odds to win the Stanley Cup -- Toronto (+700), Florida (+900) and Tampa Bay (+1200) -- are all in the Bruins' division. That list doesn't include last season's East runner-up, the New York Rangers, the always dangerous Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins, or the very talented and well-coached Carolina Hurricanes.
The Ottawa Senators also should be much improved in the Atlantic Division after making substantial roster upgrades in the offseason.
Making it though to the Stanley Cup Final from the East playoff bracket is going to be a massive challenge for the Bruins and their peers. There have been previous cycles when many of the top contenders were in the Western Conference. That's not the case right now, which is unfortunate for the B's.
Early-season injuries
The primary obstacle for the Bruins over the first two months of the season will be overcoming injuries to first-line left wing Brad Marchand, No. 1 defenseman Charlie McAvoy and top-four defenseman Matt Grzelcyk. Marchand and McAvoy should be back around Thanksgiving, while Grzelcyk could return in early November.
Bruins injuries: When Marchand, McAvoy, Grzelcyk are expected to return
Marchand has led the Bruins in scoring two consecutive seasons and five of the last six. He's the best all-around left wing in the league and a key part of Boston's power play and penalty kill. His absence is a massive one. McAvoy finished fifth in Norris Trophy voting last season and is one of the best players at his position -- a two-way, shutdown, franchise cornerstone defenseman. Grzelcyk is one of the most offensively skilled players on Boston's blue line and an important driver of puck possession and scoring chances.
Losing three immensely important pieces, including arguably your two most talented players (Marchand and McAvoy), is an extraordinary challenge.
The Bruins started out slow last season and it cost them home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. These injuries could easily result in a similar outcome if other players don't step up. One such player is Hampus Lindholm, who will play the role of No. 1 defenseman in McAvoy's absence.
Older players could start to show their age
It's hard to envision, based on how well they've played into their 30s, but at some point Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci and Marchand could start to slow down and see their production drop a bit.
Bergeron is 37 and about to begin his 19th season. He won the Selke Trophy last year and extended his streak of scoring 20-plus goals to nine seasons. Bergeron shows very few, if any, signs of regressing. But would it be shocking if he took a small step back in 2022-23?
Marchand is 34 years old and just had surgery on both hips. Krejci is 36 and has played in 1,118 career NHL games, including the playoffs.
Nick Foligno (two goals in 64 games), Tomas Nosek (three goals in 75 games) and Craig Smith (16 goals in 74 games) all showed signs of wearing down last season.
The Bruins rely a lot on their veteran players. David Pastrnak, Hampus Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy are the only true difference makers under the age of 30. It's not the worst situation to be in, but it's a little more risky.
Lack of quality assets to make upgrades via trade
Don Sweeney has made at least one deal before all seven of his trade deadlines as Bruins general manager. He's also not afraid to part with first-round draft picks in these moves. In fact, he's traded a first-rounder at three of the last five trade deadlines.
Doing so again would further hinder the Bruins' ability to draft and develop premium young talent. This has been a huge weakness for the franchise in recent years. When The Athletic posted its most recent prospect pool ranking in February the Bruins were 27th out of 32 teams.
If the Bruins don't want to give up a first-rounder before this season's trade deadline, they will have to get creative because Sweeney has already dealt the team's 2023 and 2024 second-round picks.
When you look at the franchise's weak prospect pool, its lack of future second-rounders and the need to not move another first-rounder, it's easy to see that Boston doesn't possess as many quality trade assets as most of the other contending teams. If a star player is available, most of the league can outbid the Bruins. That doesn't bode well for the team's chances of significantly upgrading at the trade deadline for a playoff push.
Not enough 5-on-5 offense
The Bruins have been a top-heavy team for a while. They've had a great top-six forward group and very hit-or-miss third and fourth lines.
As a result, they have struggled to score goals at 5-on-5. They've ranked 15th or worse in 5-on-5 goals four consecutive seasons, per Natural Stat Trick:
- 2021-22: 15th
- 2020-21: 15th
- 2019-20: 18th
- 2018-19: 20th
- 2017-18: 9th
The Bruins also didn't get much scoring production from their blue line last season. Charlie McAvoy led B's blueliners with a career-high 56 points. Matt Grzelcyk ranked second with 24. They were the only Bruins defensemen to tally more than 17 points, and neither of them will be available on Opening Night due to injuries.
How have the Bruins won playoff rounds with a mediocre 5-on-5 offense? Well, their defense and goaltending was top-tier or elite for most of that four-year span. Boston's penalty kill typically is a top 10 unit, too.
But it's hard to reach that next level and win the Stanley Cup when your 5-on-5 offense is 15th or worse. Can the Bruins outscore the Panthers, Leafs or Lightning in a playoff series? Those teams ranked No. 1, No. 2 and No. 9 in 5-on-5 goals last season. The defending champion Colorado Avalanche were fifth.