The Tampa Bay Lightning were dealt a significant blow Saturday when it was announced captain and superstar center Steven Stamkos will be out approximately six to eight weeks as he recovers from surgery.
Stamkos will have surgery Monday to address a core muscle injury. Losing a player of Stamkos' caliber always is very difficult, but the timing couldn't be worse for the Lightning.
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In the short term, they have two pivotal matchups this week against the Boston Bruins. The Bruins taking three or four points from these matchups would significantly lower the Lightning's chances of winning the division.
If the Bruins win the division, they would have home ice advantage in the second round. Who's their most likely opponent in Round 2? The Lightning.
Now, we all thought the Bruins and Lightning would square off in the second round last season, too, but the Columbus Blue Jackets crashed the party and sent the Presidents' Trophy-winning Bolts home early with a shocking first-round sweep. The Bruins went on to defeat the Blue Jackets in Round 2 en route to reaching Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.
It's hard to imagine the Lightning losing in the first round again, especially if they play the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs have won three games in a row, including a 4-3 victory over the Lightning, but Toronto's disadvantage in net and on the blue line wouldn't inspire much confidence in its ability to beat the Bolts in a seven-game series.
Boston Bruins
Six weeks from Monday is April 13, and eight weeks is April 27. A six-week absence likely would mean Stamkos returns in the first round of the playoffs, while an eight-week absence could see him return in Round 2. If the Bruins and Lightning meet in the second round and Stamkos doesn't return for eight weeks, it's possible he could miss a game or two in that series (the playoff schedule won't be announced until April).
This would be a pretty tough setback for the Lightning against a Bruins team that leads the league in goals against average and ranks third in penalty killing. Stamkos has tallied 66 points (29 goals, 37 assists) in 57 games this season, and 19 of those points have come on the league's seventh-best power play. He's the Lightning's best player and a key component of both their 5-on-5 and power play scoring success. Even if he did return and play the majority of a second-round matchup with the B's, there's no guarantee he'd be at 100 percent. It's tough to return from surgery in the regular season, let alone in the playoffs when the physicality and intensity of play is significantly increased.
Stamkos also has played particularly well against the Bruins in his career, tallying 23 goals and 11 assists in 43 regular season games. He's posted 11 points (four goals, seven assists) in 12 career playoff games versus the B's.
The Lightning did strengthen their scoring depth before the trade deadline in separate deals to acquire forwards Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. These additions should help the team cope with the loss of Stamkos, but it's impossible to replace a player of his caliber, and not having him for any length of time in a potential playoff series against the Bruins could be very tough for the Lightning to overcome.