Brad Stevens, with his unflappable sideline demeanor, penchant for preparation, and an encyclopedic knowledge of ATO plays, can absolutely be an advantage for his young team when the 2019-20 NBA season restarts next month in Orlando.
But the length of the Boston Celtics’ playoff stay will more likely be dictated by the performance — and health — of players, and not the coach.
As teams prepare to enter an unprecedented environment where a whole new set of variables will impact on-court performance, it’s absolutely fair for Celtics fans to be confident that Stevens will best position his team for success. Stevens’ ability to keep his team focused could aid Boston’s playoff run.
But talent will ultimately have the biggest impact on how this year’s playoffs unfold.
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Stevens can call all the right plays and concoct the best defensive schemes, but none of it matters if the players don’t execute in the moment. Coaching is unlikely to swing a series in Boston’s favor if the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo or Joel Embiid go supernova, or if Kemba Walker or Jayson Tatum slump on the big stage.
Stevens would be the first to admit that any perceived coaching advantage is overblown. He downplays his own hype, often noting how his ATO success often comes from poaching plays from other coaches. He is being much too modest and deserves acclaim for his ability to maximize the talent he’s given.
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But it’s pure talent that more often dictates playoff series.
And there’s only so much a coach like Stevens can do when Kyrie Irving goes rogue and starts asking to defend Antetokounmpo. Stevens was still brutally tough on himself in the aftermath of Boston’s disappointing playoff exit last year and will carry many of those lessons learned into this year’s postseason.
To suggest that Stevens gives Boston a decided edge in any series undervalues just how good the rest of the coaches in the league are. Stevens is routinely effusive in his praise for coaches like Erik Spoelstra and Nate McMillan — two coaches who could be on the other side in Round 1.
It’s easy to make Brett Brown a punching bag because of Philadephia’s woes and, yet, if his team is healthy and focused after the reboot, they’re as daunting a foe as you can encounter. Milwaukee’s Mike Budenholzer was the Coach of the Year last season and his team was a wrecking ball this year; Toronto’s Nick Nurse led his team to a title a year ago. There’s good coaching everywhere.
Stevens is going to do everything he can to put his team in position to succeed. He’ll benefit if Boston has its top 7 healthy, something that happened only eight times before the NBA season paused. He’ll benefit if Tatum plays like the blossoming superstar we saw in the final two months before the pandemic, or if Walker finds motivation in his first honest-to-goodness chance to make playoff noise. Stevens will benefit if Gordon Hayward plays with consistency and if Jaylen Brown continues his early career trend of elevating his play in the postseason.
Stevens’ biggest impact when the games start — beyond the late-game whiteboard — might be how he chooses to deploy his talent.
A healthy Boston roster can roll out the preferred starting 5 (Walker, Hayward, Tatum, Brown, Daniel Theis) and utilize Marcus Smart off the bench. Brad Wanamaker will get backup ball-handler minutes, while matchups will dictate how much Stevens can lean on Enes Kanter. From there, it’s on Stevens to figure out which darts to throw.
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Maybe Semi Ojeleye gets minutes in series in which the Celtics need some muscle up front. Maybe Robert Williams is finally healthy enough to give the Celtics bursts of quality minutes. Maybe Grant Williams can keep defenses honest by knocking down shots. Maybe another rookie like Romeo Langford emerges from the shutdown ready to more consistently contribute.
Stevens will have to press the right buttons. But it’s the players that must respond in those minutes. Injuries could force Stevens to lean even heavier on younger players and they’ll have to be ready to respond.
Stevens has already positioned his team to best be ready for the restart. By imploring his players to remain a week away from their best shape, the Celtics never let basketball drift too far from the mind.
We’d go so far as to suggest that Stevens’ biggest lift will come in the next seven weeks in the ramp-up to game action in Orlando. Not only does he have to ready his team, but he must get them to focus at a time when there are so many unknowns. Players will have questions about safety, about protocols inside the bubble, and about when their families might be able to join them.
This is where Stevens can thrive. With the right preparation, he can limit outside distractions and allow his players to simply focus on being ready for basketball. Then the talent can take over.
By preparing his team for what’s ahead, Stevens can prepare them for success.