The big question surrounding the Boston Celtics right now is who will emerge as their first-round opponent. We’ll get that answer on Tuesday night when the Miami Heat host the Atlanta Hawks in a 7 vs. 8 play-in matchup for the right to come to Boston to kick off Round 1 on Saturday afternoon.
UPDATE: The Celtics will face the Hawks in the first round after Atlanta defeated Miami 116-105 in Tuesday's NBA play-in matchup.
But even after a successful 57-win season in which Boston posted the second best record in basketball, there are bigger questions that linger as the Celtics prep for their postseason journey.
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Here’s the five biggest queries on our mind before the postseason tips:
Can this team stay healthy?
We’re going to whisper this: The Celtics enter the 2023 playoffs as healthy as any season in recent memory. Last year, the Celtics were waiting for Robert Williams III's expedited return from meniscus surgery. Jaylen Brown sat out the postseason two years ago. We don’t have to remind you about Isaiah Thomas’ hip, Kevin Garnett’s knee, or Kendrick Perkins’ ACL to stress how important health can be to a team reaching its loftiest goals.
Brown’s stitched-up right hand after a freak gardening accident and Marcus Smart’s stiff neck after an awkward night’s sleep are the biggest maladies entering the postseason, and Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla has suggested that both players should be ready to practice in advance of Saturday’s opener.
Boston Celtics
Forsberg: It's proving time for Celtics after successful 82 games
The Celtics went out of their way to bring Al Horford and Williams III along carefully this season. Horford played 63 games while sitting out the second night of every back-to-back, while Williams III totaled only 824 total minutes in 35 appearances while working his way back from a second knee procedure.
Boston’s exceptional depth, with players like Sam Hauser, Mike Muscala, and Payton Pritchard, leaves this team better equipped to handle brief absences. But the Celtics absolutely need their core players at full health to reach their loftiest goals.
What is the closing lineup?
The Celtics finished the season with the second-best winning percentage in the NBA after going 24-13 in clutch games (score within five points, final five minutes). That win total might have been slightly juiced by the team’s propensity to let games get unnecessarily close in the final minutes.
Does it matter? Last season, the Celtics were impossibly bad in clutch situations then dominated in those moments throughout the playoffs. What’s wild about this year’s success is that Boston never really had a set closing lineup.
It’s unlikely they’ll have one during this playoff run, as well. It feels like Boston will continue to lean into its depth and ride the players inspiring the most confidence on that night, with matchups likely to play a big role in who Mazzulla deploys.
In most games that should be the Core Four: Smart, Brown, Horford, and Jayson Tatum. If we learned anything during the 2022-23 season, it’s that Derrick White really ought to be on the floor in crunch-time moments given his propensity for making the right plays.
White posted a +10 net rating in 24 crunch-time appearances this season. That was the second-best mark on the team behind only Tatum (+11.9, 32 games).
Some will suggest that Smart shouldn’t be a lock for crunch-time situations given his propensity for questionable shot selection. We’d counter that Smart’s chaos factor -- his uncanny ability to make a play that no one else on the court can make -- still makes him the top guard option. But Mazzulla certainly needs to decide which guard combo gives the team the best chance in the moment. Some nights that might mean leaning heavier on White and Malcolm Brogdon.
One thing to watch: Celtics lineups with Brogdon and Brown together were strangely neutral this season. Boston had meager +0.4 net rating in 883 minutes when those players shared the court. Those numbers popped to +9.1 (Brogdon on court without Brown over 860 minutes) and +7.5 (Brown on the court without Brogdon over 1,522 minutes) when they weren't on the court together.
Which Grant Williams will show up in playoffs?
If the biggest question surrounding the Celtics is the contributions of their eight man then that feels like an encouraging sign. But we can’t shake this feeling that getting the best version of Williams is imperative to the team’s overall success this postseason.
Just rewind the tape to last season. Williams shined throughout Boston’s run to the Finals, most notably while taking on the challenge of defending Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo in the early rounds of Boston’s journey.
Those three All-Stars were Williams’ most frequent covers last postseason. He practically shadowed Durant to and from the team bus during that first-round series.
The 2022-23 regular season has been a far bumpier ride for Williams, with his pending free agent status hovering over everything after being unable to reach an extension near the start of the season.
The Celtics really need Williams to tap into what made him successful during last year’s run: Knocking down open 3s and making defense his top priority. Despite cooling a bit late in the year, Williams still shot 39.5 percent beyond the 3-point arc this season.
The Celtics can lean heavier on bench shooters like Hauser and Muscala if Williams struggles. But especially given the nature of the playoffs, the Celtics would really benefit from Williams being the same player he was a year ago.
How will Joe Mazzulla fare in his first postseason?
Let’s assume higher seeds win out throughout the playoffs: Boston’s path of opposing coaches would be Erik Spoelstra, Doc Rivers, and Mike Budenholzer.
That’s 464 games of playoff experience and four championships, all as Mazzulla preps for his first very postseason game as head coach.
Nothing about the 2022-23 season suggests that Mazzulla won’t be ready for the moment. But the postseason is a chess match that requires quick decisions and reactions. Mazzulla has certainly grown over the 82-game regular season and even deadpanned that calling timeouts was the biggest thing he’s learned over the course of the year.
If the Celtics draw the Heat in Round 1, Mazzulla will benefit from being the lead scout for last year’s Miami series. He could often be seen vaulting from behind the bench to make sure players were positioned in the right spots on the defensive end. Miami struggled to generate consistent offense throughout that series.
But Spoelstra is likely to hit Boston with a steady diet of zone defenses and gimmicks to make up for Boston’s advantage in depth and talent. Mazzulla has to have his players ready with the counters.
How deep is the rotation?
The Celtics rode the starting combo of White, Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Horford to the finish line of the regular season. With Williams III sidelined to start the year, Boston excelled with a five-out lineup that posted a 124 offensive rating in 432 minutes together in 35 appearances. A +12.2 net rating ranked that group fourth among the 22 high-volume five-man lineups with at least 300 minutes played this season.
The Celtics will have Brogdon, a favorite for Sixth Man of the Year, and Williams III as top reserves. The quantity of Grant Williams’ minutes could depend on his play.
Will the Celtics go any deeper?
Over the final 10 games of the regular season, Hauser shot 43.4 percent beyond the 3-point arc, his numbers aided by connecting on 14 of 26 attempts over the final two regular-season games. There will be nights where his shooting could be helpful; even if just to stretch the floor with reserve lineups and create room for Brogdon and White to attack, it could be valuable to find time for Hauser if he can make shots on the big stage.
Blake Griffin has jousted with Antetokounmpo in the past and could be a changeup of sorts if the Celtics need another big-man option. Griffin has redefined himself as an energy guy but his charge-taking ability and high basketball IQ could be helpful against Antetokounmpo (and others).
During the 2020-21 playoffs with the Nets, Griffin logged 50:19 of matchup time as the primary Antetokounmpo defender in a seven-game playoff series. Antetokounmpo finished with 112 points on 51-of-89 shooting but also had nine turnovers and two blocked shots.
Payton Pritchard could be a break glass in case of emergency type who can shift a game with his energy, too. Danilo Gallinari’s social media videos will keep alive a slim hope of him making a playoff appearance.