Forsberg: How important is the No. 1 seed to the Celtics?

The Boston Celtics are playing like the best team in the Eastern Conference and have an opportunity to stake a claim for that throne.

The Celtics ought to push hard for the No. 1 seed in the East over the final two weeks of the season without hesitation about a potentially unsavory playoff path.

Even as the Celtics surged over the past 10 weeks, so much of the conversation about their potential for postseason success revolved around possible matchups. And while it’s undeniable that the Celtics should yearn to avoid superstar talents like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Kevin Durant, the Celtics should also no longer fear any matchup based on their recent play.

Now, it’s the rest of the East that will be jockeying trying to avoid the Celtics.

This all would have seemed like a fever dream on January 6, when the Celtics endured an epic national-TV collapse against Evan Fournier and the Knicks that dropped the green to 3 games under .500 and out of the playoff bracket as the 11th seed in the East.

The Celtics are 28-7 since that point.

It’s easy to forget now but the green were anything but dominant at the start of this surge. They needed some Jayson Tatum fourth-quarter heroics to escape with an overtime win against Indiana at home, dropped a game in Philadelphia, and needed Chicago to come unglued late to steal a win over the Bulls. Boston was still a game under .500 on January 21 after an inexplicable loss to Portland.

Marcus Smart returned from a bout with COVID on January 23 and the Celtics took flight. Tatum dropped 50 that day in Washington, the official start of his annual second-half explosion. The Celtics have won 23 of their last 27 games but they are flat-out steamrolling teams the past couple weeks.

Boston has won its last five games, all against Western Conference teams, while building at least a 24-point lead in each. The Celtics led by as much as 32 while holding the high-octane Jazz offense to 97 points and 22.2 percent shooting beyond the 3-point arc on Wednesday night.

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While Boston was compiling enough highlights to fill an entire season sizzle reel, the Miami Heat -- long occupying the top spot in the East -- were watching superstar Jimmy Butler bicker with head coach Erik Spoelstra, all while Udonis Haslem stood ready to throw hands over the flareup.

Miami lost to a star-less Golden State team, shuffling the Celtics within 1.5 games of the top spot.

It’s still a bit of a prickly path, but the No. 1 seed is there if the Celtics want it.

The road map to the No. 1 seed

Boston entered Wednesday’s action with the NBA’s toughest remaining schedule. With Utah in the rearview, it eases only slightly, with the fourth-toughest strength of schedule over their final eight games. Miami, meanwhile, has the ninth-easiest schedule.

While Boston's final eight games are spaced agreeably over 18 days, the Celtics play two back-to-backs, both closing on the road. A Chicago-Milwaukee road back-to-back on April 6-7 could go a long way to deciding exactly how the top of the East standings shuffle out.

Any hopes of the top seed likely hinge on Miami’s visit to TD Garden next Wednesday night. A loss there might stiff-arm Boston’s chances -- though the Celtics have already won the first two meetings of the season and would hold the head-to-head tie-breaker -- while a victory could accelerate a vault. Four of Miami’s final six games are on the road.

Milwaukee and Philadelphia, in a virtual tie with Boston for that second seed at the moment, but with two fewer games played, will have a say in how this all plays out, too. The Bucks have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule, while Philadelphia has the eighth-easiest slate.

What the numbers say

Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities report -- created by 1,000 daily simulations of the remainder of the season -- gives the Celtics only a 21.4 percent chance at the top spot in the East (Miami is at 63.1 percent).

The Heat are aided by two fewer losses at the moment. Boston’s other seeding odds per B-R's projection: 34.1 percent for the 2 seed, 24.9 for 3, and 17.6 percent for 4 (with only a 2.1 percent chance at slipping out of the top half of the bracket).

How important is it to you that the Celtics get the No. 1 seed in the East?

— NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSBoston) March 24, 2022

FiveThirtyEight's NBA projection model currently pegs Boston as the No. 2 seed with a 52-30 final record. The Celtics finish one game behind the Heat in that simulation, but a game ahead of the 76ers and Bucks.

That’s notable because it suggests a strong 6-2 finish for Boston wouldn’t be enough to catch Miami but necessary to stay in front of Milwaukee and Philadelphia.

The pros and cons of a top spot

Earning the No. 1 seed in the East would guarantee home-court advantage through the first three rounds of the postseason. But it also brings into play the uncertainty of the play-in tournament.

Brooklyn, which gets Kyrie Irving back Thursday as a full-time player, is looming as the eighth seed in the East. If the season ended today, the Nets would play the Raptors with a chance to snag the 7th seed and set up a first-round matchup with the No. 2 seed.

A loss would give the Nets a second play-in game with a chance to be the 8th seed and draw a first-round series against the No. 1 seed in the East.

For all of the question marks around the Nets, there is one very large exclamation point in Kevin Durant. No team wants to see him on the court in a playoff series -- and definitely not in Round 1.

Lingering in spots Nos. 3 or 4 offers more immediate answers on initial opponent. It also means a likely matchup with a Bulls team that has struggled against top competition or a young Cavaliers team that lacks the offensive firepower to truly compete in the postseason.

At times during Boston's surge, we wondered if first-year coach Ime Udoka might be willing to play the jockeying game and settle for a lesser seed if it produced a more advantageous path. Even drawing Miami in Round 2 in a possible 1-4 matchup seems less prickly than having to see Giannis or Embiid. 

But there are simply too many variables. And the Celtics ought to simply focus on what they can control. Closer to the finish line, they can assess opportunities to rest players or angle for a certain spot. But for now, this team ought to keep its foot on the gas pedal and check the playoff map again on April 1.

It’s the rest of the East that ought to be checking their rearview mirrors.