No one would look at the loss of James Develin to injured reserve and say the New England Patriots just lost one of their five most important players offensively. But Bill Belichick would be the first to tell you just how much value his fullback of the last five seasons brings to the roster.
"We're fortunate to have one James Develin on our team," Belichick said Tuesday on a conference call. "He works extremely hard. He's a versatile player that does things for us offensively and in the kicking game. Very dependable and has a lot of experience in our system. We're lucky to have him.
"To have two of him and be able to replace him with another James Develin is just unrealistic . . . There's no one person who can do what he does."
Part of what Develin did for the Patriots is that he allowed them to use section of their playbook that might not be available to them otherwise. At the very least, those pages won't be turned to quite as frequently with Develin out.
In 2018, Develin played in 36.3 percent of his team's offensive snaps. Many of those were spent as one of the centerpieces of their 21-personnel packages.
With another back -- often Sony Michel -- and a tight end on the field, Develin was primarily used as the lead blocker to clear out defender bodies on rush attempts. He blocked for another ball-carrier on 68.2 percent of his snaps last season, making his role one that teammates and coaches alike lauded as representative of the kind of tough and physical identity they hope to achieve on a yearly basis.
New England Patriots
"James is a special guy," Josh McDaniels said Tuesday. "He certainly plays a very valuable role in our offense and he has a lot to do with our success when he's on the field.
" . . . He provides a toughness and a leadership and a physicality that we love around here. He's a great person, great worker, great attitude. Always a positive contributor to our performance offensively. You're not just going to plug in somebody and replace that."
If he's truly irreplaceable -- the Patriots currently have one other fullback, Jakob Johnson, who arrived to the team initially via the NFL's International Player Pathway program -- then it would be reasonable to deduce that the team may have to abandon the heavy 21-personnel groupings of which Develin was a key part last season. Of course, the Patriots have proven that they can be efficient out of the league's most popular personnel grouping, "11," and this season they've turned to more "10" and "20" packages as they've relied on their receiver and running back depth.
But with Develin in the fold last season, "21" helped the Patriots offense function at an optimal level during the most important stretch of their season. In the playoffs, the Patriots rushed for 5.3 yards per carry out of "21" and they threw for 8.7 yards per attempt. That was better than what they got from their three-receiver 11-personnel packages (4.0 yards per carry, 7.6 yards per attempt), as well as their 12-personnel groupings (4.8 yards per carry, 6.5 yards per attempt).
With a versatile "21" grouping that was able to catch teams off-guard by passing out of run-heavy looks yet still run when the opposition expected it, the Patriots out-gained their postseason opponents by 544 yards and possessed the football for an average of 38 minutes 30 seconds over three games.
It should come as no surprise that during the playoffs, "21" was the team's second-favorite package behind "11." McDaniels called for it 64 times and relied on "22" (two backs, two tight ends) 37 more. Develin played 98 total snaps against the Chargers, Chiefs and Rams in January and February, which was his busiest three-game stretch outside of Weeks 12-14, which saw him play 101 snaps.
During the 2018 season, the Patriots ran for 4.5 yards per carry out of "21," but later in the year, as the team embraced a new emphasis on the running game, that number improved. After their Week 11 bye, the Patriots averaged 5.1 yards per carry out of "21." In goal-line situations (from three yards and in) after the bye, the Patriots rushed for eight touchdowns on 11 attempts in two-back formations.
Even the pass game was more efficient out of "21" after the bye week. They were at their best through the air with that grouping, averaging a whopping 8.4 yards per attempt, which was slightly better than the more receiver-heavy 11-personnel grouping (8.1 yards per attempt).
Just because Develin will miss at least eight weeks on IR with a neck injury doesn't mean the Patriots offense will tank. They'll adapt. They'll go as players like Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon and James White go. They'll go as their offensive line goes.
"The goal for us is not to replicate what we did last year," McDaniels said. "It's to try to figure out how we can be the best version of ourselves this year with the personnel that we have playing and available to us for us each week this season."
What Develin's injury does, though, is potentially reduce the team's margin for error. The Patriots were already without David Andrews and Isaiah Wynn before Develin landed on IR. The team still doesn't have a consistent answer at tight end following Rob Gronkowski's retirement.
They've scored 106 points through three games, but they're 25th in the league in rushing in terms of yards per attempt, and Belichick acknowledged before Develin's IR designation that "at some point, we're going to need to improve our running game."
Develin's presence gave the Patriots access to a section of their playbook that helped make them extremely efficient offensively -- both running and passing -- en route to their sixth Lombardi Trophy. Moving forward without him means their options will be a little more limited unless they can piece together his role with other players.
"Is it one person? I mean, I doubt it," Belichick said. "Is it a combination of people on or off the roster? That's really the conversation and so then you go from there."
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