J.C. Jackson really has the Patriots painted into a corner. Orrrrr does he?
The conundrum the Patriots supposedly face is simple. Jackson’s production has him in line to become one of the most highly-paid corners in the league. If the Patriots want to keep him they’ll have to either franchise him for $17.2M or fork over a long-term deal that will probably average out at $18M per year.
If he hits the open market, he’s gone. Bill Belichick shouldn’t be treating this as one of those, "Go find out what’s out there and then we’ll see what we can do …" situations. There’s very little chance Jackson’s going to get a wakeup call and find the rest of the league thinks he’s a nice player made to seem elite because of the Patriots system.
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Perry: The pros and cons of franchise-tagging J.C. Jackson
Scheme itself didn’t lead to Jackson’s league-leading 23 pass breakups and eight picks this season (17 over the past two). He’s really good and he’s going to get paid. And there’s a sense that the Patriots have to be the ones to do it.
The logic for that goes like this. You need an elite corner to compete at the highest level. The Patriots are proof of that thanks to Ty Law, Asante Samuel, Aqib Talib, Darrelle Revis, Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore. When the Patriots have a shutdown guy, they are Super Bowl contenders. Most would agree that the difference between winning and losing SB52 was Butler being benched.
Once the Patriots decided they were letting Gilmore go, it became clear Jackson was the next “elite” in line. So even if it costs a lot and ties their hands elsewhere, the Patriots kind of have to do it. That’s how the majority of responders to this Twitter poll see it.
Is J.C. Jackson elite? Is he a true shutdown corner? Is he an eraser in the same way Jalen Ramsey has been or Gilmore and Revis were? A guy whose side you don’t even look at?
Or is he more of a ballhawking opportunist whose production both in picks and pass breakups are indicators that -- while he’s really good -- his area is not a "no fly" zone?
Public opinion is a little bit split. Which makes sense because it’s not a cut-and-dried situation.
The bottom-line question is whether or not Jackson’s skillset and contributions are irreplaceable.
Some of the numbers on the screen say "yes." The picks. The pass breakups. The 49.1 percent completion rate and 46.8 QB rating in 2021 when thrown at.
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Others say, "maybe not." The eight touchdowns allowed over the past two seasons. The team-high 11 missed tackles (15.9 percent) this year and the nine in 2020 (18.4 percent). The fact that six of his eight picks in 2021 came against Zach Wilson, Mike White, Sam Darnold and Trevor Lawrence.
Take a look at this compilation of the first 24 picks of Jackson’s 25-pick career. I'll wait.
Watching them back in succession, my takeaway is that Jackson has outstanding hands and anticipation skills. His ability to high-point the ball downfield and wall-off receivers on the sideline are elite. He’s smart at baiting. And he really makes quarterbacks look stupid because so many of those picks are "What were they thinking?" plays.
There are at least two ricochet picks, a Hail Mary off the arm of Jimmy Garoppolo, a WTF pick six off Darnold and more than a few garbage-time picks.
Bottom line? Picks are picks. But what truly matters at cornerback is the ability to erase very good players in critical games.
As it currently stands, the Patriots' main competition is Buffalo. In the three late-season games against the Bills, Jackson was thrown at 22 times. There were 12 completions for 197 yards and a touchdown. In the Patriots’ playoff loss to the Bills, Jackson gave up five catches on six targets for 98 yards.
Nobody on the defense played well in that game. Or the previous game against the Bills. (Here’s every throw with Jackson on Stefon Diggs, who’s routinely put up big games against Jackson). But there’s nobody currently on the Patriots roster you’d prefer to see against Diggs, which is a salute to Jackson and also an indictment of the second-round pick squandered in 2019 on Joejuan Williams.
The question confronting the Patriots currently is whether they can unearth another corner to approximate Jackson’s skill level. Given Jackson is basically Butler 2.0 and the team is remarkable at unearthing undrafted talent, they have to feel confident they can. But there’s an incubation period. And, if they don’t franchise or sign Jackson, who’s their high-level corner in the interim?
If they do franchise Jackson, how many renegotiation hoops will they need to jump through and how many possible additions will they have to pass on to keep him around?
Are the Patriots a good enough team right now where they can afford to tie up that much money (not to mention a $10M fifth-year option to left tackle Isaiah Wynn) in a really good corner? Or do they figure they’re still a rebuilding team that needs to be economically sound after last year’s spending spree (which was forced by previous years’ draft misses)?
The way I see it, the cost-benefit of paying J.C. Jackson is too rich for the Patriots' blood right now.