Perry: Five matchups that will decide Lions-Patriots in Week 5

Bill Belichick stood at the podium inside Gillette Stadium on Friday and once again reiterated that the offense was his. He's responsible for what gets run. He's responsible for how it looks.

"We've talked about this ad nauseum," he said. "Maybe we can take notes this time to say that I'm responsible for all of it. Which is what I've said from day one. That's what I continue to say. There hasn't been any change in that. I'm responsible for what is called and what's done on the field."

That came after a series of questions about Matt Patricia, including one asking how Belichick believed Patricia had grown within the role of play-caller. Seems as though that's a significant portion of his job. He's the one with the offensive play sheet. He's the one apparently speaking into the headset as the quarterback waits for a call from the sideline to relay to the huddle.

After four games, the Patriots are 23rd in points scored (18.5), but there has been a steady increase in efficiency it's seemed as the weeks have gone by. In their last three games, they're 17th in points per game (22.3), though that was aided in some part by a Jack Jones pick-six last weekend. Still, they're first in rushing success rate and third in the NFL in rushing expected points added. According to Football Outsiders, whose DVOA metric adjusts for situations and competition level, they're first in rushing DVOA.

Whether it's Belichick or Patricia or someone else who deserves the credit for whatever progress the Patriots have shown since implementing a new offense this summer and fighting through some obvious growing pains in so doing, this is a big week for both. Because even with Bailey Zappe expected to start -- Mac Jones is doubtful with an ankle injury and Brian Hoyer is on injured reserve with a concussion -- this is a game the Patriots can win.

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But the coaching staff needs to have something cooked up for the moment.

In Green Bay, the Patriots did a significant chunk of their damage on the back of two play-calls. One was a weak-side zone run behind an utterly dominant Trent Brown. The other was a play-action call that featured a post route combined with a deep over route that led to DeVante Parker's touchdown reception and a long grab by Nelson Agholor that helped set up a Damien Harris score.

Understandable that the offense would be limited with a third-string rookie quarterback in the game. But it was that predictability that eventually derailed the plan on that side of the ball late against the Packers. The pass play had both its top options doubled when the Patriots turned to it late in the fourth quarter, and Zappe took a bad sack. The run play was called on second down in overtime, but the Packers adjusted to it with a gap-exchange run stunt, stuffed the attempt for no gain, and the Patriots eventually gave the ball back to Aaron Rodgers for the final time.

The Lions have the worst defense in the NFL, by many metrics. Their run defense is particularly shoddy, ranking 32nd in DVOA through four games. But they are still an NFL defense. If they continue to see the same handful of plays over and over, the Patriots may end up stopped in their tracks. They need more variety. And they should have that available to them after a week of practice in which Zappe saw starter reps while newly reacquired passer Garrett Gilbert worked as the backup.

I asked Belichick Friday if this week of work was about shrinking the offense the Patriots installed in camp to best fit Zappe, or if there were any additions being made to help make Zappe comfortable in his first NFL start.

"I just don't believe in taking last week's game plan and building this week's game plan off of last week's game plan," he said. "I don't believe in that. So I would never do that. I would take the breath of whatever it is we have, and say, 'OK, how does that fit into the opponent that we're playing and the players that we're playing with?' And build upwards from there.

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"Rather than say, 'Here's all of the plays we ran,' whatever, and whittle those down. I don't even know if those are any good this week. I don't know. That's just not the way I would do it. I would build it up to whatever point you think gives your team the best chance to win, whether that's on offense, defense or special teams. That's the way I would look at it."

Not only are the Lions ready to be run on, offensively they're going to be without top running back D'Andre Swift (shoulder/ankle), receivers DJ Chark (ankle) and Quintez Cephus (foot), defensive end Charles Harris (groin), and they could be without top wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle), who practiced for the first time this week on Friday and is officially questionable.

This is a winnable game for the Patriots. Even with their third-string quarterback behind center. But they'll need to have a plan put in place by Belichick -- the man responsible for it all -- and his staff that carries them.

Let's get to the matchups of the week ...

Matchup that will win the first half

Jared Goff vs. Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick

The Lions can throw it. That may be due in large part to the fact that they've been an incredibly efficient running team through four weeks (which we'll get to soon here). But it's not as though the Lions lean on their play-action passing game more than the rest of the league.

In fact, Jared Goff is 15th among 29 qualifying quarterbacks this season when it comes to his play-action percentage (25.6 percent of his throws come after a run fake), per Pro Football Focus. It ain't all smoke and mirrors. Goff is seventh in passer rating -- ahead of Rodgers, Tom Brady and Joe Burrow -- 12th in yards per attempt and 12th in passing DVOA. Goff is limited, but if he's allowed to find open-window throws against man coverage from the Patriots, the first half could be a bumpy one for the Patriots, who certainly aren't built explosively enough to come from behind with Zappe at the helm.

How to slow down Goff? It's not with the blitz so Mayo and Steve Belichick will have to come up with another way to fluster him. Goff has an average of 8.1 yards per attempt when blitzed this year and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 3-to-1, according to PFF.

Matchup that will surprise you

Aidan Hutchinson vs. The World

Hutchinson was just about the perfect prospect at defensive end based on his production level at Michigan and his height, weight and speed. The only reason he didn't go No. 1 overall was because Georgia's Travon Walker had tape (and the athletic testing numbers) that made him look like he was not of this planet. Then Hutchinson checked in as one of the stars of Hard Knocks, the hype train was ready to run right off the tracks.

Hasn't worked out that way. Though he had three sacks against the Commanders in Week 2, he's been quiet in his other outings with zero sacks and three quarterback hits in that span. He ranks as PFF's 119th edge defender from a grading perspective, even with that Week 2 performance included. Whether he's aligned across from Trent Brown, Isaiah Wynn or Marcus Cannon (who replaced Wynn at right tackle late in the Packers game), the Patriots should have a plan to stop the rookie.

Matchup that will bring you joy

Trent Brown vs. The World

If you didn't catch it in real time last weekend, do yourself a favor and make sure you're keyed in on the left tackle spot when the Patriots are on the field early this week. Brown is coming off of one of his best run-blocking games as a member of the Patriots, when he continued to overpower a damn good edge defender in Preston Smith over ... and over ... and over again. "I'd never seen a guy that size who can run like that," Rhamondre Stevenson said this week.

At one point, Brown turned to the Patriots sideline after a long run behind him, asked them to run the same play again, and they did for another positive gain. "I think it's a beautiful thing that the coaches trust me to call my number," Brown said Friday. Later in the game he flexed both biceps after pancaking a Packers defender. He was on another level. And against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league? He could be flexing again Sunday.

Matchup that will take years off your life

Bailey Zappe vs. Lions blitzes

While the Lions defense has struggled, it's not due to a lack of aggressiveness. They're blitzing at the third-highest rate in the league, per Pro Football Reference, 37.6 percent of the time. That hasn't translated to much in the way of pressure -- 17th in the NFL with a pressure percentage of 24.1 percent -- but it could still cause problems against a Patriots offense that has been inconsistent in its blitz pickups at times this year.

Last week in Green Bay, Zappe was 6-for-11 for 68 yards and a touchdown -- good for a rating of 103.6 -- but he was sacked twice and pressured five times on those blitzed dropbacks. For a rookie quarterback, making his first NFL start, after a career spent at Houston Baptist and Western Kentucky, handling the blitz and keeping him upright should be priority No. 1 for this offense when it inevitably finds itself in obvious passing situations on third down.

Perhaps the best way to make life easier on Zappe? While the Patriots should run, run and run some more on Sunday, giving him an occasional play-action pass on early downs -- throwing when the Lions aren't expecting him to, and potentially limiting exotic pressure packages that may be thrown Zappe's way -- could be beneficial.

Matchup that will decide the game

Patriots front seven vs. Lions offensive line

If the Patriots can stop the Detroit running game, they'll be cutting the head off the snake that is Dan Campbell's entire operation. Even with Swift out, Detroit has a competent running back in Jamaal Williams behind him who leads the NFL in touchdowns from scrimmage with six. They are the No. 1 rushing offense in terms of yards per carry with a whopping average of 5.9 yards per attempt, and they're the No. 4 rushing offense in terms of DVOA.

"To be that efficient," Matthew Judon said, "they're doing something very well. So we've got to be on our Ps and Qs ... They're knocking people off the ball. They've got a big, physical offensive line unit, and their backs have really good vision. Even downhill runs can bounce outside. We got to defend every game and the width of the defense because the ball can be run anywhere."

The Patriots, meanwhile, have struggled to stop the run almost as much as the Lions have. Whereas the Lions are last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (5.6) and rush DVOA, the Patriots are 29th (5.1) and 31st. The edges of their defense have been stressed consistently, including last week against the Packers when Green Bay ran for seven, 10 and 15 (and a touchdown) on consecutive plays -- all around the edge.

The Patriots will have to make sure they're sound in their fundamentals across the line of scrimmage defensively, but especially to the outside, when the Lions come to town. If they can slow down the Detroit rushing attack and run it themselves in what could be an old-school, in-the-trenches slobberknocker, they should head into Monday with a record of 2-3.

Prediction: Patriots 23, Lions 21