Curran's Patriots-Chiefs Preview: Pats face toughest test yet in Week 4
The 2020 Patriots face their toughest challenge yet on Sunday as they'll take on Patrick Mahomes and the undefeated Chiefs. Tom E. Curran breaks down all aspects of the marquee matchup.
Three weeks into the season, the Patriots have bottled up a not-very-good Dolphins offense, gotten shredded by a very good Seattle offense and given up yards but not points to a middle-of-the-road Raiders crew. Based on all that, you’d think New England would be in for it against Kansas City.
And maybe they are. Their offensive artillery towers over everyone else’s and the Patriots still have a lot of new guys in key spots defensively. But one thing that argues for the Patriots being able to keep pace? As complex and talented as the Chiefs may be, the Patriots defensive coaches are smart enough to keep it simple for their guys. And they’ve coached against them enough to know how to hang around.
Knowing it and doing it? Two different things.
Unless they want to get into a whole, “they thought we were gonna zig but we zagged” situation, the Patriots are not going to throw it more than 25 times by choice. They are a running football team. Aside from a very talented and tough outside/slot receiver in Julian Edelman and two very good pass-catching backs, there’s no tight end threat worth mentioning, a second-year wideout with peekaboo potential and Damiere Byrd.
Going against a Chiefs defense that allows 5.28 yards per carry, the Patriots have to go in planning to pound it. With Damien Harris returning from IR (people are LITERALLY wetting themselves about his 2020 debut not literally), the Patriots are rolling five deep. Somebody’s gotta sit. It will probably be rookie J.J. Taylor.
The Ravens ran it with effectiveness on Monday, gave up on it, fell behind then had to abandon the run. Josh McDaniels isn’t going to take that bait. The Patriots should be able to power over the Chiefs front-seven and make them commit more to the box. Then they may run some more.
Bottom line, they need to finish drives. The most important players for the Patriots offense may be players like Jakob Johnson and Michael Onwenu – a fullback and backup guard – rather than the ballhandlers. Meanwhile, Newton is a much different running threat than the one posed by Lamar Jackson.
EDGE: Patriots
It’s worth noting how much damage the Seahawks did against the Patriots in Week 2. And the Seahawks are not the Chiefs. Kansas City is so ridiculously stocked that this is a different stratosphere than the challenge the Patriots faced with Russell Wilson and Co.
The Patriots were underwhelming stopping the run last week against the Raiders and it was only a turnover caused by Patriots safety Adrian Phillips that prevented the Raiders from getting up on the Patriots early. The Raiders ran for 126 on 22 carries.
What New England did do well was eliminating the big threat in the Raiders offense, Darren Waller. But if you take Kansas City’s first option – like Tyreek Hill – they have three or four others who can still do damage beginning with Travis Kelce. Expect the Patriots to go multiple DBs and put Phillips or Kyle Dugger up at the linebacker level. But New England needs to keep it simple and not get caught up in the motions/formations and other window dressing the Chiefs will roll out.
Easier said than done with so many newer players finding time on the field this season.
EDGE: Chiefs
Harrison Butker is the Chiefs' kicker. He’s steady (5 for 6 this year; 34 for 38 last year). Their punt and kickoff guy is speedy Mecole Hardman. Tommy Townsend is the punter and so far the Chiefs are giving up some numbers on returns (12.7 average on three returns).
Meanwhile, folks are shifting restlessly about Nick Folk who last week tacked a missed PAT on to his field goal misses the first two weeks. J.J. Taylor is creeping closer to being the Patriots' main returner. I like it. Jake Bailey is solid with the 44.3 net.
EDGE: Chiefs
No home runs. The Patriots have faced Mahomes three times. In the 2018 regular season, he hit them with touchdown passes of 67 and 75 yards. In the AFCCG, with the Chiefs needing a field goal for overtime he hit back-to-back throws of 21 and 27 yards to set them up. Early in the second quarter of last season’s Chiefs win, Mahomes hit Mecole Hardman for a 48-yard score.
The Patriots have to make the Chiefs work for it. Easier said than done.
Rex Burkhead.
He’s not the Patriots best runner. He’s not their best pass-catcher. But he’s the back that brings the most versatility to the table for New England. He got 16 catches and scored twice in the AFCCG during the 2018 playoffs. If the Chiefs are hellbent on bringing pressure on Cam Newton, dump-offs and screens to Burkhead could be part of the antidote.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
The rookie running back taken with the last pick in the first round has become the Chiefs multi-purpose back and is already having impact similar to Kareem Hunt. He ran for 138 yards on 25 carries in the opener, had 70 yards rushing and receiving in Week 2 and then had 134 rushing and receiving against the Ravens Monday night. The Chiefs offense was already stocked with an assortment of weapons and now Edwards-Helaire is a brand new headache to deal with.
New England Patriots
Out
DB Cody Davis (rib) - DNP
Questionable
DL Adam Butler (shoulder) - LP
WR Julian Edelman (knee) - LP
G Shaq Mason (calf) - LP
RB Sony Michel (quad) - LP
T Isaiah Wynn (calf) - LP
Kansas City Chiefs
Questionable
DT Chris Jones (groin) - LP
"You try to gang tackle, pick good angles. … If he gets out of the pocket, you have to pick good angles. If you ain't picking good angles, he'll pretty much run by you. And if you're worried about all what's going on around you, something bad's gonna happen. So you have to eliminate as many of those plays as possible. And you know it's gonna happen.
"We see it every single week. Every time we get in the game and you see something you're like, 'Wow, I didn't know that was possible. Oh, he made him miss on that tackle?' If that happens, go to the next play. And you have to continue with that mindset. The next play is gonna be the next play. You can't live in the past.”
– Lawrence Guy, Patriots defensive tackle, on dealing with Patrick Mahomes.
“Cam can do anything. Cam, he’s been the passer, he’s been the runner, he’s been the whole deal. You have to prepare for everything and we went in that way with Lamar (Jackson), the same thing. Yeah they have the run game that’s tremendous. You also have a guy that can throw the football. I’ve played against Cam enough and seen him enough to know how explosive he is doing both.”
– Andy Reid, Chiefs head coach, on Cam Newton.
