Patriots-Dolphins Preview: Keys to a New England win in Cam Newton’s debut

The Patriots mystique isn’t going away anytime soon. Even with Tom Brady in Tampa and so many other key players relocated or opting out, there is a way or preparing and playing that remains. It’s a “program.”

That’s why, even with all the attrition and the stumbling conclusion to the 2019 season, so many cite Bill Belichick and the team’s ability to flourish when it’s “counted out” as being the Patriots' main attribute. But the program is going through a rebuild and nobody knows that better than the Dolphins, who took out the Patriots in Week 17 last year.

Dolphins head coach Brian Flores came from here. So did defensive coordinator Josh Boyer and plenty of players on both sides of the ball. There’s respect for the Patriots, of course. Mystique, though? Miami probably isn’t having any of that.

They will run it. A lot. It goes back to the “put yourself in position to succeed” mantra Bill Belichick is fond of.

Asking Cam Newton in his first game with the team to put it up 25 times or more to a pair of rookie tight ends and a (Julian Edelman aside) green group of receivers is not a position to succeed. They are built to run. Now, they didn’t do that real effectively last season (3.8 YPC) but they’ll also be a lot less predictable this year in “how” they run. There will be read options. There will be triple options. There will be designed quarterback draws and Jet Sweeps.

How they dress it all up matters because Miami has no book to go on for this offense. The Dolphins were 30th in the league against the run last year. They have plenty of additions at linebacker – Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts – and in the secondary – Byron Jones – and will be better overall than in 2019 but for this first game, there a lot that’s not known.

More than anything, they need to get positive yards on first down. Second-and-7 or more, third-and-5 or more is going to put them in a bad place.

Conversation about the “unknown” facing the Patriots in 2020 has focused mostly on the offense, but defensively it’s nearly as profound. We’ll begin understanding Sunday how the Patriots are going to deploy their diminished front seven.

How big a role do Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings have? Is Byron Cowart going to be the anchor in the middle of the defensive line? Will the Patriots expand the role of Chase Winovich and how much pressure can they put on Ryan Fitzpatrick? The Patriots secondary is easily a top-five crew. It’s in front of them where the uncertainty crops up.

Jordan Howard and Matt Breida are the backs for Miami. The Dolphins have a rebuilt offensive line clearing holes for them. Meanwhile, Miami has some big boys at wide receiver – DeVante Parker and Preston Williams are 6-3 and 6-5. They are complemented by shrimpy 5-7 Jakeem Grant. Look for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to challenge, challenge, challenge.

Miami kicker Jason Sanders was 23-for-30 on field goals last year. Nick Folk – who presumably will handle the work for the Patriots – was 14-for-17. Shouldn’t be a lot of drama there.

The Patriots will once again have the best punt coverage unit in the league with Jake Bailey launching moonshots for Matt Slater and Justin Bethel to chase down. Dolphins punter Matt Haack is your garden-variety NFL punter.

Their main returner is Jakeem Grant. For the Patriots, it's unclear who will bring back punts – something we would have learned if there was a preseason. Figure Damiere Byrd and J.J. Taylor could be in the mix.

Cahhhhhhddddddio (cardio).

Miami’s been beating the hell out of itself in the heat of South Florida for about 50 days. The Patriots have been running and running and running the way Bill Belichick always wants them to. But neither team is calloused up to the physicality, play-after-play exertion and adrenaline that a game day brings.

Who’s got the belly and the lungs for it? Because that will be a major part of the second half.

James White

The best way to get Cam comfy in his first start isn’t with jump balls to N’Keal Harry or betting on the rookie tight ends. It’s with short, crisp, low-risk passes to the pro, James White. Especially on third downs when Julian Edelman is going to see plenty of attention. White will be the Patriots' best option to keep the chains moving and the guy Miami has to bottle up.

DeVante Parker

They really didn’t do a great job of it last season in the finale when he caught eight balls for 137 yards, many on Stephon Gilmore, in the Dolphins' stunning upset. He was targeted by Ryan Fitzpatrick 26 times in the Dolphins last two games.

Miami Dolphins

DOUBTFUL: S Clayton Fejedelem (pectoral)

New England Patriots

OUT: OL Yodny Cajuste (knee), WR Gunner Olszewski (foot)

QUESTIONABLE: WR N'Keal Harry (shoulder), TE Dalton Keene (neck), LB Cassh Maluia (knee), DL Chase Winovich (shoulder)

“Miami is a team that we expect to play a lot of man-to-man coverage. So, we'll see how we do against that type of covering system and with very good players. They have good corners, safeties, linebackers, and a lot of guys that can cover well. So, we'll see how we match up against that. But, you know, the group that we kept is a group that's worked hard. They deserve to be here. So, we'll see how it goes. I don't think anybody knows where they are at any position at this point in time until you actually get out there and start playing.”

– Bill Belichick on the Patriots raw receiving corps

“You see it in the bubble with the NBA. You see No. 1 seeds going down. There is no home-field advantage. We know we’re in New England, realistically; but at the end of the day, there are no fans, there is no crowd noise. I think they can do crowd noise in their stadium (it is constant at 70 decibels); but at the end of the day, there is no fans. Those fans make a big difference, but at the end of the day, who wants it more is the team that’s going to win the game.”

– Devin Godchaux, Dolphins DT, on the lack of home-field advantage