BOSTON — Craig Kimbrel is the nexus of everything. Or at least, several relevant baseball topics, from the Red Sox' outlook on a whole to whether saves will continue to be sought and rewarded with the same verve.
Overpaying for a pitcher who had one of the worst years of his career to chase another title might actually make sense, so long as the Red Sox are willing to keep spending on their younger players and realize the risk they’re taking on — and the value of the compensatory pick they’d be foregoing.
A highly regarded closer is the ultimate luxury good. It’s one thing to be an excellent reliever. It’s another to be proven in the fire and brimstone of the ninth inning. Kimbrel’s free agency may be a good indicator of how far the Red Sox will go to pursue a title repeat in the immediate future, whether they intend to pull out all stops.
And if the present is everything, then Kimbrel is not easy to simply let resettle elsewhere. Put roles aside momentarily: the Sox generally would do well to add to their bullpen this winter or at least maintain it, not subtract from it.
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The Red Sox are not only in a position to actually afford a brand-name closer — hello, season-ticket purchases following a championship, and all the other gobs of money this ownership group has — but in a position where, after 119 wins, Kimbrel may actually be a luxury that makes sense. For 2019, anyway. The 2021 season may be a different story in Boston. But as has been the case with many matters for management in recent years, perhaps the Sox feel they can just cross that bridge later.
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Across the game, the closer position itself is evolving, but slowly. The rest of baseball seems to be undergoing small revolutions, but we’re still seeing one holdover: the pitcher who must pitch in a certain situation.
Many relievers still swear by a traditional bullpen structure. Yet, this October once again provided an example of how pitchers can break that mold. The postseason and the regular season are two different animals, but that discrepancy is a matter of frequency of usage than anything else. There’s no great reason that Kimbrel cannot pitch in big moments outside of save situations — aside from an adherence to tradition and his Hall of Fame aspirations.
Here, then, is a fixed-role pitcher who has shown no indication he is interested in something other than finishing out games, in an age where roles are being slowly destroyed, particularly during the time of year that fans care about most: October.
But let’s say there’s validity to the role still. That from April through September, at least, a traditional closer still has some added value. Maybe the value is not nearly as great as once thought, but maybe it is enough that, when you’re already a championship-caliber club, it’s worth having. It's an advantage, even.
The Red Sox must consider that there are only so many ways for them to upgrade. And “upgrade” may actually be the wrong word. No matter what the Sox do this winter, the chances that they are actually a better team than they were in 2018, that they finish with more victories, are incredibly small. Their goal, in essence, is to maintain, and to again win the division and avoid a Wild Card game.
A good pitcher with an intangible would seem to stand out. Keeping Kimbrel is safer for the immediate future than replacing him with a pitcher who has not displayed the intangible so steadily.
Yet, this is a pitcher who will be paid on past performance at a time when there are signs his ability is declining. High-velocity arms, too, are becoming more common still around him.
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Kimbrel was not good in the postseason, allowing seven runs in 10 2/3 innings, including two home runs. He walked eight.
The Red Sox won the World Series in large part because their pitching staff was both willing to change roles, and subsequently good at said roles: starters as eighth-inning relievers, for example. With a four-run lead in Game 5 of the World Series, Sox manager Alex Cora had Chris Sale pitch, rather than Kimbrel, who had been taxed the previous two days. But Kimbrel also just wasn’t as trustworthy, even though he always seemed to get out of his messiest messes.
Compared to his insanely good 2017 season, Kimbrel had a huge drop-off in 2018. And he was still one of the top-25 most valuable relievers in the majors, per FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. At 1.5 WAR, he was No. 22, tied with his good friend David Robertson, and behind three of Robertson’s Yankees penmates: Aroldis Chapman (10th), Dellin Betances (15th) and Chad Green (18th).
Over his career prior to 2018, Kimbrel averaged 3.3 walks per nine and 14.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He was at 4.5 walks and 13.9 strikeouts per nine this year, respectively.
But he can close. What's that worth to a team with major stars nearing free agency? A lot may be learned from the Sox' handling of Kimbrel this winter.
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