Tomase: Breaking down Sox rotation — greater depth, but many questions
Here's the good news: if the Red Sox choose to employ an opener this season, it will be by choice, not necessity.Unlike 2020, when they lost ace Chris Sale to Tommy John surgery and 19-game winner Eduardo Rodriguez to COVID before the season even started, the Red Sox should be prepared to weather whatever storms besiege their rotation.It wasn't a loud offseason, but it was an effective one from a depth standpoint. The Red Sox added a handful of pitchers who can start if needed, including right-hander Garrett Richards, who projects as their third starter if the season opened today.The Red Sox also added experienced swingman Matt Andriese, rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock, and former A's right-hander Daniel Gossett to stand in reserve if reinforcements are required, which they almost certainly will be over the course of a 162-game season.So what might the rotation look like in 2021? After running through the lineup earlier this week, let's take a stab at the starting pitching staff, understanding that Sale probably won't be ready until July.
And right out of the gates, we get our first question mark. The Red Sox have insisted for months that E-Rod is all systems go after being sidelined by COVID-induced myocarditis, an inflammation of the lining around the heart. The doubting Tomases among us need to see him show up in Fort Myers ready to roll before shelving our skepticism. Even if he does, he still faces the daunting task of building back up to 35 starts and 200 innings after missing an entire year.
That kind of endurance doesn't simply return under the best of circumstances, let alone after a heart ailment. If Rodriguez is healthy, there's no question he's the most talented member of the rotation, with an elite ability to produce weak contact via a fastball-changeup-cutter-curveball mix.
There wasn't much to celebrate last season, but Eovaldi's performance qualifies. Despite missing three starts to injury -- which projects to the eight or nine he usually is sidelined for in a full season -- he delivered some of his most consistent results, going 4-2 with a 3.72 ERA and striking a career-high 9.7 batters per nine innings while walking a career-low 1.3.
That's the kind of ratio that can justify a No. 2 spot in any rotation, even if Eovaldi's overpowering stuff mystifyingly has never produced commensurate strikeout numbers. His $68 million contract runs through 2022, and if the Red Sox hope to surprise their skeptics and make a postseason run, it will take a full season of the kind of results Eovaldi delivered in nine starts last year. As usual, durability will be make or break his season.
Those of us who spent all winter focused on former Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber as the short-term buy-low candidate with the highest upside overlooked Richards. The 32-year-old has never made an All-Star team or earned even a down-ballot Cy Young vote, but his career has been defined by a perpetual hope that this is the year he puts it all together.
He looked like an ace with the Angels in 2014 when he took the mound in Boston with a 13-4 record and 2.61 ERA, but an awkward encounter with the first base bag while trying to complete a double play left him with a torn patellar tendon. He returned in 2015 to go 15-12 with a 3.65 ERA in 32 starts, but he hasn't thrown more than 77 innings in a season since, thanks to 2016 Tommy John surgery.
If he's healthy, he's a Statcast darling, thanks to fastball and curveball spin rates that rate in the top three percent of baseball. If he's not, the Red Sox may regret not further extending themselves for Kluber, who ended up signing with the Yankees.
The Red Sox raised some eyebrows when they declined Perez's $6.25 million option after watching him go 3-5 with a 4.50 ERA in 12 starts. They instead waited a couple of months and signed him in January to a one-year, $4.5 million deal with a $6 million option for 2022.
There's no sense pretending that Perez is anything more than he is -- a workmanlike left-hander with the ceiling of a fourth or fifth starter. When the Red Sox eventually build a rotation that's worthy of contending for a title, Perez won't be a part of it. In the meantime, reliability should be his greatest asset.
It's not too early to say that Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom fleeced the Phillies when he sent relievers Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree to the Phillies for Pivetta and prospect Connor Seabold.
Pivetta should make the most immediate impact in Boston. The 6-foot-5 right-hander is blessed with tremendous raw stuff, as evidenced by his 10.3 strikeouts per nine as a member of the Philadelphia rotation in 2018, a season that saw him shut down the rampaging Red Sox during one memorable August start.
Pivetta kept overhauling his mechanics and approach in Philly while bouncing between the bullpen and rotation. The Red Sox brought him into their alternate site as a starter, and he rewarded them with two excellent starts to close 2020. When he's right, his fastball touches 99 mph.
We shouldn't discount the possibility that the Red Sox experiment with a six-man rotation, especially coming off a 60-game season, which could lead to diminished durability. The Mariners went the six-man route last year, and if the Red Sox follow suit, Houck would be the logical next man up -- that is, if he doesn't win one of the top five jobs outright.
The former first-round pick wasn't considered a mega-prospect, but he put it all together at the alternate site before wowing the Red Sox in three nearly perfect starts. He went 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA and 11.1 strikeouts per nine. The lanky Houck throws across his body like a right-handed Sale, with a wicked slider that dominates right-handed hitters. The problem was supposed to be lefties, but he limited them to two hits last year.
Needless to say, three starts does not a career make, and rival hitters will make adjustments, but it's still nice to know someone with Houck's potential could be waiting in the wings.
Sale won't be ready for Opening Day. He may not even be ready by the All-Star break. He's rehabbing from Tommy John, and the Red Sox aren't going to rush anything, especially after he experienced a slight setback after suffering a neck injury and shutting down his throwing program around the holidays.
If by some chance the Red Sox find themselves in contention this summer, Sale could be one heck of a trade deadline acquisition. That said, most pitchers recovering from Tommy John don't hit their stride or regain their prior form until their first full season back. In Sale's case, that means 2022. The Red Sox aren't going to do anything reckless.
