Tomase: Projected Sox lineup contains some surprises, especially off the top
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With spring training only a couple of weeks away, we can start turning our attention to matters of actual baseball.And here's a question that's coming into focus: what might the Red Sox opening day lineup look like?Chaim Bloom has added a couple of new starters in second baseman Enrique Hernandez and outfielder Hunter Renfroe. With Andrew Benintendi finally moved, we should expect to see a healthy dose of utilityman Marwin Gonzalez and toolsy new outfielder Franchy Cordero. We still don't know if a reunion is in the offing with center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr.But based on what we know now, here's one stab at Alex Cora's starting nine when the Red Sox open the season vs. the Orioles on April 1.
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Cora has made it clear since he reclaimed his old job that a priority will be increasing the team's athleticism, especially on the bases. That doesn't mean stealing bags so much as going first to third on a single, aggressively reading balls in the dirt, tagging up when the opportunity presents itself, etc.
Hernandez may not seem like a traditional leadoff guy, thanks to his lifetime .313 OBP and only 12 steals, but he possesses above-average sprint speed and outstanding instincts, and he's shown an ability to jump some pitches early in games, with six leadoff homers, as well as a .470 slugging percentage that's his highest at any spot in the order.
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"What is happening?" you might be asking. Fair question. Why move Rafael Devers from this spot when he's been an absolute force here over the last two years? Short answer: maybe you don't and he stays put. But for now, let's consider a look where a Dodgers connection atop the order gives Cora another athlete to hit in front of his boppers. In a perfect world, Verdugo would probably bat leadoff, where he excelled last year, but the current construction of the roster is weighted towards right-handed hitters.
A Verdugo-Devers 1-2 works in a more balanced lineup, but my guess is Cora would look to split the two lefties so as not to hit six or seven righties in a row. Verdugo doesn't turn 25 until May, and he has the ability to break out as an All-Star in 2021, justifying his presence at what's consider the marquee spot in the order.
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Speaking of which, the move made sense on paper last year, kind of. Looking to create some left-right balance, and recognizing the trend to bat sluggers like Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, and Christian Yelich second, interim manager Ron Roenicke tried Martinez there. What he didn't account for was the run producer's mindset and identity as a middle-of-the-order thumper. Martinez didn't hit well anywhere last year, but he was particularly impotent in the 2-hole, going homerless in seven games before returning to his more familiar 3-4 spots.
Assuming last year's problems were mental/mechanical and therefore fixable, Martinez is the prototypical No. 3 hitter, capable of hitting for average and power. With two above-average baserunners in front of him, the hope is the Red Sox will be able to pressure opposing defenses immediately.
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Martinez isn't the only prototypical 3-hitter on the roster. Bogaerts could thrive there, too. It's crazy to think, as he begins his ninth season, that Bogaerts is only just now actually entering his prime.
The 28-year-old is capable of producing MVP-caliber numbers on a winning team, with .300-30-110 a reasonable place to start any projections. Bogaerts hits wherever you put him in a lineup, but his best numbers have come batting cleanup, where he's hitting .302 with 19 homers and a .929 OPS in 318 at-bats.
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See our caveat on the second spot in the order. There's a compelling argument to leaving Devers there and putting Verdugo here. But we're sticking with the theme of athleticism. Besides Martinez, the other three hitters batting in front of Devers should be dynamic on the bases. If Cora wants to enact a culture change on the field, this would be one way to do it. It's not as if Devers is ill-equipped to hit in the middle of a lineup.
He's only two years removed from leading the American League in total bases, and he's a 40-homer season waiting to happen. He can always move back up the lineup if batting him here doesn't pay dividends. It's also worth noting that at this point in the order, the Red Sox have decent left-right balance.
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Now things start go get a little more right-handed. When Vazquez arrived in the majors, it seemed that a lifetime of hitting eighth or ninth while playing tremendous defense awaited him. He fooled us all by developing legitimate power, with a career-high 23 homers in 2019 and a career-best .801 OPS last year.
Vazquez is actually at his best when he doesn't swing for the fences and simply let's the power come as a byproduct of a good approach. His worst stretch last season came after he slammed four homers in his first five games. He spent the next two weeks swinging from his heels, with 18 strikeouts and one walk to show for it. But from that point forward, he hit .318 with an impressive 14 walks over his final 28 games.
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Why not? The Red Sox acquired Cordero in the Benintendi trade in the hopes that he can stay healthy and deliver on his impressive physical tools. Cordero consistently hits the ball hard -- though not always in the air -- and at 6-foot-3, 230 pounds, he's built like a free safety, with the speed to match.
Batting this low in the order, the Red Sox may just let him swing for the fences in the hopes of producing some runs of the instant variety. He boasts incredible strength and what is described as prodigious power, including a 489-foot home run a couple of years ago, but it hasn't really translated to game action. If the left-handed Cordero struggles or needs a day off, the switch-hitting Gonzalez is capable of playing all over the diamond.
Dalbec came out of nowhere to slam eight home runs in 80 at-bats, showing the kind of all-fields power that will guarantee a home for him somewhere. He struck out at an alarming rate -- 39 times -- but he also showed the potential to earn 70 walks, which mitigates the propensity to whiff. If there's one spot crying out for a tweak, however, this is it.
The right-handed Dalbec could use a left-handed platoon partner. One possibility is old friend Mitch Moreland, who remains unsigned after being traded to the Padres last summer. A better one is the versatile Marwin Gonzalez, a switch hitter who can play virtually everywhere and is familiar to Cora from their days together in Houston.
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The Red Sox could actually feature some thunder down under at the bottom of their order. Renfroe has hit at least 26 home runs in each of his last three full seasons, including a high of 33 in 2019.
He's an even more extreme all-or-nothing proposition than Dalbec, with a lifetime on base percentage of only .290, but his right-handed swing is tailor-made for Fenway Park. He could use a left-handed partner, and it's easy to envision a scenario where Gonzalez, should the Red Sox sign him, earns some time here, too.
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