Tomase: How Red Sox can surprise us again and contend for AL East title

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Las Vegas expects so little of the 2022 Red Sox, you could bet the over on their predicted win total and still come up six games short of last year's 92 victories.

Of course, the 2021 Red Sox beat the oddsmakers by nearly 12 games before blitzing into the American League Championship Series, where they fell to the Astros in six games.

It was a heck of a run for a club no one took seriously coming off 2020's last-place finish, but it was also fueled by some luck. The Red Sox outperformed their expected win total by four games to finish a game ahead of the rampaging Blue Jays, who underperformed theirs by a staggering eight games.

Check out pretty much anyone's AL East predictions, and it's clear the Red Sox are being discounted again. Even with the playoffs expanding to six teams, they're still considered a bubble club at best. Can they surprise us for a second straight year?

In a word, yes, but it won't be easy. While they're blessed with one of the best offenses in the game, the loss of erstwhile ace Chris Sale and the departure of left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez blew two big holes in the rotation, and making matters worse, there's a mess of uncertainty in the bullpen.

Manager Alex Cora understands the challenge that awaits, and he's ready for it. The AL East is loaded. The Twins hope to rebound behind Carlos Correa. The Mariners added AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray. The Angels have improved and expect full seasons out of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. The White Sox and Astros aren't going anywhere.

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Cora's focus is inward, however. Perhaps the whole can once again surpass the sum of the parts.

"We enjoy the grind, we enjoy the challenge, but at the end of the day, it's 162," he said. "Last year it took 162 to make it to the playoffs. And we did what we did in October. Just got to be ready for day one. You see the schedule. There's other teams that are really, really good outside of our division. Obviously, the rules of the tournament are different now. But you've got to shoot to win the division. That's the most important thing. I know those off-days are gold in October. So we'll do our best to win the division. But it's a tough one. It's a tough one. We know that."

Here's what needs to go right to punch a return ticket to October.

1. The offense must lead them

The Red Sox finished fourth in the AL in runs last year and should be even better after effectively swapping first baseman Kyle Schwarber for All-Star infielder Trevor Story.

Their top six is as good as anyone's, from postseason hero Kiké Hernández, to slugging third baseman Rafael Devers, to All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts, to consistent DH J.D. Martinez, to breakout candidate Alex Verdugo, to the desperate-to-join-a-winner Story. If Bobby Dalbec can build off his August and September, they'll go seven deep, and then right fielder Jackie Bradley and catcher Christian Vazquez can focus on defense.

With the game shifting away from a model built on starting pitching to one dominated by bullpens, the Red Sox have the ability to eliminate opposing starters early. They're going to need it, because the pitching staff will require some tinkering.

2. Just get enough starting pitching

The days of the six-inning starter -- let alone nine -- are practically over. Mangers want five innings out of even their best arms and will then match up the rest of the way.

Outside of ace Nathan Eovaldi, few of their starters are threats to go deep into games. But Cora really only needs five innings. When Red Sox starters reached that threshold last year, Boston went 72-49.

In a perfect world, Nick Pivetta would be the No. 4 starter. On this one, he needs to be No. 2, at least until Chris Sale (maybe?) returns in June. Based on his playoff performance and his ability to outduel Mets ace Jacob deGrom in one of the best games of last year, the fiery right-hander has the potential to be up to the challenge.

The same goes for right-hander Tanner Houck, who's leaving the bullpen despite some struggles turning over a lineup. The Red Sox also hope that the changes veteran Michael Wacha made down the stretch with the Rays -- primarily by relying more on his fastball -- actually stick. And they'll cross their fingers that ageless left-hander Rich Hill continues defying the ravages of time.

Considering that they opened last year with left-hander Martin Perez and right-hander Garrett Richards in the rotation, it's hard to argue that this group is that much worse. That said, the rotation will need to be finessed. But the pieces are there for Cora to leap from rock to rock while crossing the rapids.

3. Cycle through as many relievers as it takes

The Red Sox opened last season with Matt Barnes at closer and Adam Ottavino, Darwinzon Hernandez, and Matt Andriese as trusted setup men. They ended it with Barnes a healthy scratch, Andriese released, Hernandez marginalized, and Ottavino only throwing once between Oct. 3 and Oct. 15.

In their place, rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock saved the season as a multi-inning weapon, trade-deadline acquisition Hansel Robles stepped up alongside veteran right-hander Ryan Brasier, and Cora rode pockets of effectiveness from left-hander Josh Taylor and right-hander Hirokazu Sawamura. It wasn't easy, but the Red Sox made it work.

All of that is to say that we don't know exactly who will carry the bullpen this season, especially early. Barnes is coming off a rough spring that featured diminished velocity, and Brasier, Sawamura, and newcomer Jake Diekman all struggled, too.

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Rookie Kutter Crawford made the club and newcomer Matt Strahm impressed with some big hair and an even bigger fastball. Outside of Whitlock, it's hard to pinpoint one reliably stable arm. Help could come from the farm eventually in the form of top pitching prospect Brayan Bello or hard-throwing right-hander Frank German, who had a strong spring.

Cora's bullpen mantra in April may be the equivalent of a recently concluded college basketball tournament: survive and advance.

4. Catch everything in the outfield and just a little more in the infield

If there's an area the Red Sox can improve upon, it's defense. The left side of the infield struggled either with range (shortstop Xander Bogaerts) or converting routine plays (third baseman Rafael Devers). Cora liked what he saw from both players in Fort Myers, particularly Devers, who has worked on slowing down and not rushing his throws.

Even a marginal improvement on the left would qualify as significant from a run-prevention standpoint, since no team was worse at converting groundballs into outs. It helps that the Sox clearly bettered themselves at second base with Story, a former Gold Glove finalist at short.

In the outfield, they replaced rifle-armed gunslinger Hunter Renfroe with rifle-armed sheriff Jackie Bradley Jr. They'll also have a full season of Hernández in center and Verdugo in left in what has the potential to be one of baseball's best defensive outfields.

Defensive shortcomings aren't always readily apparent, especially when we're talking seeing-eye grounders just beyond the reach of outstretched gloves, but they make a difference. Improvement on this side will help mitigate the struggles of the pitching staff, with the offense hopefully making up the difference.

5. Spend John Henry's money

It's safe to say the Red Sox don't reach October without Bloom's targeted strikes at last year's trade deadline, which were maligned at the time but ended up delivering a big bat (Schwarber) and an essential arm (Robles). There's no reason they can't make similar improvements this July, especially with a deep farm system.

Their rivals have certainly shown a willingness to spend, particularly north of the border in Toronto. This is where Bloom's ability to identify talent should be a difference-maker. He correctly identified not only Schwarber as the best hitter to move last July, but Robles as a relief upgrade despite the mediocre 4.91 ERA he had posted in Minnesota.

The Red Sox team that opens the season won't be the one that finishes it, and the ability of the club to once again confound the oddsmakers may very well come down to Bloom's ability to find reinforcements later this summer.

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