The Red Sox haven't made a move yet in free agency, but already the shell of a rotation is taking shape.
James Paxton's somewhat surprising decision to exercise his $4 million option, along with the announcement that ace reliever Garrett Whitlock will shift to the rotation, provides some early clarity to a group that should still receive significant reinforcements this winter.
If the season opened today, the Red Sox would field a rotation of Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Whitlock, and Paxton. Tanner Houck is preparing to start with the understanding that he could end up back in relief, general manager Brian O'Halloran told reporters at the GM Meetings in Las Vegas.
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That's a group with some upside, but even more uncertainty, since Sale has battled an avalanche of illness and injury over the last three years and Paxton has thrown just 1.1 innings since the start of 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Add the fact that for all his promise, Bello went 2-8 as a rookie with an ERA pushing 5.00, and that Whitlock was nondescript in nine starts, and the Red Sox aren't exactly swimming in reliability -- and that's before we even mention that Whitlock (hip) and Houck (back) are recovering from offseason surgery.
But at least there's the start of a representative rotation.
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"There's a lot of talent there," O'Halloran told reporters, including Chad Jennings of The Athletic. "There are good numbers, and then we have guys behind them as well, young guys, but we want to continue to build depth. We like what we have, but we're going to continue to add to it."
The Red Sox need more than depth. They've got that covered with the aforementioned bunch, plus Triple-A arms like Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski, and Bryan Mata. What they need is an anchor, because Sale has proven wholly unreliable over the last three years, and everyone else brings question marks of their own.
The biggest name on the market might be Giants left-hander Carlos Rodon, who is coming off consecutive All-Star seasons and should figure in the NL Cy Young race. Rodon turns 30 next month and hasn't followed a linear path to stardom since being selected third overall out of NC State by the White Sox in 2014.
Shoulder surgery ended his 2017 and then Tommy John torpedoed 2019, but since returning to full health in 2021, Rodon is 27-13 with a 2.67 ERA.
He projects to make at least $150 million in free agency, but if the Red Sox are looking for someone they could slot as a No. 1 starter over the next five years, Rodon is probably the best bet on the market.
Coming off a last-place season when the Red Sox ranked 22nd in starting ERA (4.49), bolstering the rotation should be one of the primary goals of the offseason. What they have now is only a start.
"We always cast a wide net on how we're trying to figure out what opportunities there are for the club," O'Halloran told reporters. "We're doing that. We'll continue to do that."