John Tomase sits down to try to make sense of the MLB lockout and voices his concerns about the future of the league.
The analytics revolution has warped our perception of value.
In the Moneyball days, it meant targeting players whose skillsets went underappreciated, and it shows how far we've come that only 20 years ago many teams didn't recognize the value of on-base percentage until Billy Beane opened their eyes. On base percentage! Not exactly expected weighted on base average on contact, or championship win probability added -- both of which are real stats, I swear.
In the 20 years since, advantages haven't remained advantages for very long. Every team knows how to parse Statcast data, and every team more or less values the same traits, which is why someone like right-hander Andrew Heaney can have such a robust market after posting a 7.00 ERA with the Yankees. It turns out that spinning a fastball better than 90 percent of the league will provide your pick of one-year, $8.5 million offers, no matter how many home runs you surrender. (In this case, 29 in only 129 innings. Heaney ultimately chose the Dodgers, but you can be sure the Red Sox kicked the tires, too).
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It's collusion without collusion, and sometimes it feels like front offices only want players who have underperformed their underlying metrics, because those players equal bargains. It's how the Red Sox can jump on Hunter Renfroe for $3.1 million and then ship him out of town after a 31-homer season because his salary will double in arbitration.
It's also, to be fair, how they end up with postseason hero Kiké Hernández playing a full-time role in center when the Dodgers viewed him as a super-utility, and it's also why they targeted promising right-hander Nick Pivetta in a trade with the Phillies. Both played pivotal roles in last year's march to the American League Championship Series. There's nothing wrong with pursuing hidden gems.
But at what point does the pursuit of "value" blind teams to highly paid players who may not outproduce their salaries, but will nonetheless earn every penny?
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This applies to multiple teams, but let's focus on the Red Sox, who have yet to pay a free agent more than $14 million under chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. At some point the Red Sox will pay market rate for a superstar again, but first they're going to have to accept that they won't be exploiting any inefficiencies to do it.
One name that springs to mind, thanks to an intriguing news item, is Braves slugger Freddie Freeman. MLB insider Jon Heyman reported recently that the Rays made Freeman an offer before the lockout, which on the surface defies logic. Did small-market Tampa really think it could land such a big fish?
But the Rays went big at the trade deadline by acquiring slugging DH Nelson Cruz for the stretch run, a move that showed their willingness to spend, even if it didn't ultimately pan out. And they're actually well-positioned to absorb a big salary, as spelled out by MLB Trade Rumors, with surprisingly little money committed beyond this season.
Freeman is hardly anyone's idea of a value signing. He's likely to command at least $150 million if he leaves the Braves, and at age 32, it's hard to argue his best years lay ahead.
And yet, as we've mentioned before, there's value in the consistency that Freeman brings to the field, not to mention his championship pedigree and widely acknowledged clubhouse leadership. He's actually coming off one of the best seasons of his career after hitting .300 with 31 homers and his best ratio of walks (85) to strikeouts (107). His expected batting average of .320 was one of the highest in baseball, if advanced stats are your thing.
If Freeman doesn't do it for you because of his age or the presence of prospect Triston Casas, then insert one of the other big free agents -- Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, Kyle Schwarber. They're all going to cash in. None will be considered a bargain, especially with the CBT expected to rise at least $20 million in the next labor deal.
But that doesn't mean they won't provide value. It just means they'll be paid for it.