We can't be all doom and gloom during the holiday season, not that that's stopped some of us from trying.
The Red Sox winter may look terrible now, but we weren't particularly impressed at this time in 2020, either, and the team Chaim Bloom built ended up racing to Game 6 of the American League Championship Series.
While repeat of that performance feels unlikely, anything can happen once the games start, so in a nod to the season of hope, let's ponder three ways in which the Red Sox could exceed our expectations next season.
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1. The Bullpen
The group that cost them repeatedly last year has been significantly upgraded, starting with All-Star closer Kenley Jansen. The right-hander may not be the dominant force of his early Dodgers days, but he knows how to record the last three outs, and giving manager Alex Cora ninth-inning peace of mind means the Red Sox shouldn't blow many obvious victories.
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But Jansen isn't the only addition. The Red Sox also signed former Dodgers right-hander Chris Martin, whose primary attribute -- which addresses a glaring weakness -- is that he doesn't walk anyone. Only Kansas City's relievers walked more batters in the American League last year than Boston's, but Martin throws strikes. He struck out 34 and walked just one with the Dodgers and gives Cora a proven arm for the eighth inning.
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Add Joely Rodriguez, a lefty with better stuff than results, to holdovers like John Schreiber, Tanner Houck, and Matt Barnes, and Cora shouldn't be starved for options in the late innings, especially since Garrett Whitlock could conceivably shift there, too. The top seven bullpen ERAs in 2022 belonged to playoff teams, and if the Red Sox hope to play in October, their relief corps must deliver.
2. Rafael Devers urgency
There seems to be a belated realization dawning on Jersey Street that superstar players command superstar contracts, no matter how fiscally "unwise." The Red Sox were outbid by over $100 million on franchise shortstop Xander Bogaerts only three years after parting ways with MVP Mookie Betts, and they're in danger of heading down the same road with Rafael Devers, which everyone seems to agree would be disastrous.
Until the Red Sox start stacking bricks of $100s, their words mean little, but they've at least acknowledged that retaining a homegrown star like Devers requires a concession to market realities. Bloom says the team is willing to spend "beyond reason" to keep Devers, though he also admits there are limitations.
Regardless, the Red Sox understand they can't let another All-Star walk for nothing, and maybe their inability to land impact talent this winter will be the push they need to step up for Devers.
3. Fruits of the farm
Today's roster holes might actually be tomorrow's opportunities. Bloom's oft-stated goal is to build a self-sustainable winner, and the time has come to start seeing results.
We already know two prospects who will play significant roles in right-hander Brayan Bello and first baseman Triston Casas. Bello will slot somewhere into the rotation, where he was the club's best starter in September, while Casas should get every-day at-bats in the middle of the lineup with a chance to show off his mix of power and patience.
Maybe they won't be alone. Top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela has Gold Glove potential in the outfield and an above-average glove at shortstop, too. The assumption is that he opens the season in Triple A, where he needs to improve his selectivity at the plate, but he's an electrifying athlete who could force the issue this spring.
There's also a chance help arrives from one of the many starters they've painstakingly acquired since Dave Dombrowski was overseeing their drafts and international signings, whether it's left-hander Brandon Walter or hard-throwing right-hander Bryan Mata, who's now a full year removed from Tommy John surgery.
Their best prospect, shortstop Marcelo Mayer, is probably two years away, and the same goes for future double-play partner Nick Yorke. But we shouldn't dismiss the possibility that the Red Sox get more from the farm this year than we're expecting.