Bears vs. Rams: 3 keys, prediction, odds
Bears Insider JJ Stankevitz makes his pick for Monday night's Bears-Rams game.
Spread: Bears: +6.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Bears +250
Over/under: 44.5
*Odds as of Monday at 5:45 p.m.
Odds provided by our partner, PointsBet.
Now on to my three keys:
Sean McVay’s Rams are among the NFL’s most effective rushing teams on first down entering Week 7. They’re averaging 5.5 yards per carry with a 61 percent success rate on first down, both third in the league, while running it 57 percent of the time (8th highest, per SharpFootballStats).
This strategy allows Jared Goff to get into a rhythm and be highly effective throwing on second down – on second and six or less, he’s averaging 9.4 yards per attempt, fourth-best in the NFL.
Getting Goff off schedule will be critical for the Bears’ defense. Goff averages 6.8 yards per attempt on second and seven or more, a little below the league average (7.4 yards per attempt). And when facing third and long (seven or more yards), Goff averages 6.6 yards per attempt, a yard and a half lower than the league average.
Meanwhile, Goff on third and four or less averages 12.5 yards per attempt, easily the best in the NFL (Bears quarterbacks, in the same situation this year: 3.5 yards per attempt). That’s what a good, play action heavy offense looks like. And while the Rams are going to use play action even if they can’t establish the run, Goff is not a quarterback who carry an offense on his own – especially against a defense as good as the Bears have.
But the Bears’ defensive weakness is against the run, and McVay surely will attack it to try to make things easier on his quarterback. If the Bears’ defense makes things difficult on Goff by keeping the Rams’ offense off schedule and in obvious passing downs, it’ll be a long, long night for the former No. 1 overall pick.
Donald leads the NFL with 37 pressures, per PFF, and 7 ½ sacks entering Week 7. He’s going to impact Monday night’s game somehow, some way. The Bears just need to make sure he doesn’t wreck the game, especially with so much uncertainty at left guard.
Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley – the Bears’ old outside linebackers coach – surely will try to exploit the Bears’ weakness at left guard, whether it’s Rashaad Coward starting again or Alex Bars getting the nod. There are some ways Matt Nagy and Bill Lazor can try to minimize Donald’s impact, though, even in the face of what looks like a massive mismatch.
Maybe that means getting the ball out quick, especially on early downs, to avoid the kind of third-and-long plays Donald will feast on if given the chance. Maybe it means more of the max protect concepts we’ve seen the Bears use, especially out of 13 personnel (one back, three tight ends, one receiver) to give Nick Foles opportunities to push the ball downfield with multiple players blocking Donald.
But if Donald is allowed to wreck a game, he will. The Rams are 13-3 when Donald has two or more sacks in a game. He had 2 1/2 sacks in the Rams’ 17-7 win over the Bears last year.
