The five most irreplaceable Bears in 2019

The Bears deserve plenty of credit, from coach Matt Nagy to head trainer Andre Tucker to sport science coordinator Jen Gibson and everyone involved, for largely keeping the eventual NFC North champions healthy in 2018. The Bears lost tight end Adam Shaheen and right guard Kyle Long to injured reserve, yet had both players return during the season.

The most significant IR loss the team had was slot corner Bryce Callahan, who was placed on injured reserve after suffering a foot injury in Week 15. Backup linebacker Sam Acho and tight end Dion Sims were the other two players to land on IR in 2018. 

Only having five players be placed on IR (and having two return) was a major accomplishment for a team that frequently ended seasons with a double-digit list of guys on IR. But there was some luck involved, too -- luck the Bears can hope for, but can't count on, in 2019. This is football, and injuries are an unfortunately significant part of the game. 

So with that in mind, today we're looking at the five players the Bears can least afford to lose for a significant amount of time next season based on a few things: Talent, production, position, depth and money.

Consider this, too, a cheat sheet of sorts for where the Bears need to improve their depth over the next few months (except for quarterback). Here's the list:

1. Khalil Mack
2018 stats: 12 1/2 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, 73 total pressures

The Bears’ defense managed just two sacks against the Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots and New York Jets after Mack suffered an ankle injury in the first half of the Bears’ loss to the Dolphins in Week 6. Mack played the rest of the game against Miami, and then against the Patriots, but sat out against the Jets and then the Buffalo Bills (the Bears had four sacks against a punchless offense quarterbacked by Nathan Peterman). It’s no coincidence that the Bears’ two worst defensive games of 2018 — allowing 31 points to the Dolphins and 24 to the Patriots — came as Mack was hobbled and ineffective. 

The Bears’ depth at outside linebacker looks thin heading into the 2019 offseason. Beyond Mack and Leonard Floyd, the Bears currently have Sam Acho (coming off a torn pec that ended his 2018 season) and unproven youngsters Isaiah Irving and Kylie Fitts, with Aaron Lynch set to become a free agent. Beyond Mack’s 12 1/2-sack production being largely irreplaceable, his playmaking ability and ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks was the top catalyst for the Bears having the NFL’s best defense in 2018. 

“He definitely brings a level of energy and a consistency at that position,” Philadelphia Eagles coach Doug Pederson said before the first round of the playoffs. “Definitely boosts the defensive line. He's definitely somebody you have to scheme for and know where he is.”

On top of Mack’s holistic impact on the defense, he carries with him a cap hit of $22.3 million in 2019 — which accounts for a little over 11 percent f the Bears’ total cap space. Literally and figuratively, the Bears can’t afford to lose him. 

2. Mitch Trubisky
2018 stats: 289/434 (66.6 percent), 3,223 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs, 95.4 passer rating

This is another obvious one, too: The Bears’ offense is built around Trubisky, no matter how capable a backup Chase Daniel may be. While the Bears went 1-1 with Daniel filling in for Trubisky last year, the chances the Bears could sustain a Super Bowl run with any backup quarterback not named Nick Foles are low. 

What the Bears need from Trubisky in 2019 is significant growth in Year 2 running Nagy’s offense. The Bears ranked 20th in yards per play, 21st in passing yards per game, 22nd in interception rate and 16th in first downs per game in 2018, and finished the year 20th in offensive DVOA (they did rank ninth in points scored per game, though that does factor in the six defensive touchdowns they tallied). The Bears need to be better, especially to combat a possible regression by the defense. 

The point here is this: The Bears’ offense won’t be able to take the step forward it needs without Trubisky operating it. His arm strength and athleticism — he rushed for 421 yards and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt — make him a potentially dynamic threat, one to whom the entire Bears’ organization has staked their immediate future. 

3. Trey Burton
2018 stats: 76 targets, 54 catches, 569 yards, 6 touchdowns

While Burton’s numbers in 2018 weren’t eye-popping, his impact on the Bears’ offense was significant. 

The Bears’ offense stagnated in its wild card loss to the Eagles, one which was marred by the loss of Burton a little more than 24 hours before kickoff. That exposed a sneaky weakness of Nagy’s offense: Without a versatile “U” tight end, the Eagles were able to take away Tarik Cohen, who only had four touches in that 16-15 loss. 

While Allen Robinson admirably stepped up in place of Burton, the Bears’ offense lacked the kind of dynamic flexibility that made it difficult to defend at times in 2018. Burton played 80 percent of the Bears’ offensive snaps last year, the highest of any skill position player. 

Finding a capable backup to Burton won’t be easy, especially because that player will be required to be a special teams contributor in the vein of Ben Braunecker (a restricted free agent) and Daniel Brown (an unrestricted free agent). Perhaps the Bears draft a “U” tight end April, though with limited picks that may not be a pressing enough need (then again, if scouts fall in love with a player, they’ll take him regardless of position). 

4. Eddie Jackson
2018 stats: 6 interceptions, 2 touchdowns 

Jackson initially wasn’t going to be on this list, with Akiem Hicks getting the nod over him. But as free agency approaches in a little over a month, the Bears seem unlikely to pour money into retaining Adrian Amos given Jackson will be in line for a deservedly-rich contract extension a year from now. It’s not necessarily good practice to have a sizable chunk of money tied up at the safety position, so unless the Bears can keep Amos on a bargain, it seems likely they’ll move on. 

Perhaps the Bears move forward with former fourth round pick Deon Bush, a cheap veteran free agent (perhaps like Tennessee’s Kenny Vaccaro) and a draft pick. But whatever the outcome is next to Jackson, the Bears will need the All-Pro on the field as much as possible without the experience of Amos next to him. 

The Bears were able to overcome Jackson’s absence after he sprained his ankle while running back an interception of Aaron Rodgers in Week 15 (while there were some egregious floating throws by Nick Foles in the playoffs that Jackson could’ve made a play on, the Bears still only allowed 16 points). But in 2019, without Amos, replacing him would be a more difficult task. 

5. Kyle Fuller
2018 stats: 7 interceptions, 13 PBUs, 66.6 passer rating when targeted (per PFF)

While most of the cornerback-focused attention over the next few weeks will swirl around Callahan, the Bears do have a sneaky need for better depth at outside cornerback behind Fuller and Prince Amukamara. At the very least, they’ll need competition for second-year undrafted free agent Kevin Toliver II, who has ideal length and athleticism but is short on experience. The Bears were lucky to only have the combination of Fuller and Amukamara miss one game in 2018 — and that was that laughable blowout win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Fuller gets the nod here, though, given how good he is (his seven interceptions led the NFL) and how much money the Bears have committed to him (his $13.5 million cap hit is the third-highest on the Bears in 2019). The Bears would do well to continue to develop Toliver while targeting some veteran competition and perhaps drafting a cornerback, too, something Pace has only done once in four years with the Bears (and that player, Deiondre’ Hall, was moved to safety).