Discussions as to whether Jordan Howard fits the Matt Nagy offense have centered chiefly around the running back’s pass-catching, specifically his drops and catch-rate. But that’s not the chief reason Howard is laboring in a majorly reduced role in this offense vs. previous seasons, and why it is very, very difficult to envision Howard in a Bears uniform after this season, maybe sooner than that.
The problem is not so much Howard getting the ball into his hands. It’s what happens when the football does get into his hands. Indications are that he is simply not sufficiently explosive for the offense as envisioned by Nagy. And Nagy does have a first-hand idea of what his ideal running back should be and do.
Nagy said immediately after the New England game that the Bears run game needed to improve, and supplemented that on Monday with a statement that his offense was still in search of an identity for its run game. Howard already has an identity, that of a ground-and-pound hammer, which is not what Nagy envisions as his run-game identity.
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“Learning this offense as a whole, all of us together and kind of going through this deal, the run game, trying to figure out the identity of who we are, has taken a little bit longer than the pass game,” Nagy said. “And so what we’re going to do — that’s why we’re coaches — is figure out who we are, what we do best and we talk about it. So we’re at a point right now where we need to figure out what that is.”
Howard has in fact become a progressively better pass catcher. He’s worked on his receiving, and his woeful rookie catch rate of 58 percent in 2016 improved to 72 percent last year and to just short of 79 percent this season.
But in roughly two-and-a-half seasons, Howard has no touchdown run or catch longer than 21 yards. He does have longer plays: a run of 69 yards and reception of 34 as a rookie, and a 53-yard run last year. But none of those plays wound up in the end zone, and therein lies the rub.
Since the fifth game of Howard’s rookie season, when he scored on a 21-yard Brian Hoyer pass at Indianapolis, he has no receiving touchdowns. None. Bradley Sowell almost had that many vs. New England.
NFL
“We’ve got to stick to what we know,” Howard said. “Everybody has to execute; it can’t be one person. I’ve got to do what I got to do to get the run game going. We’ve just got to stick with it.”
Contrast all of that with what Nagy operated in Kansas City with Kareem Hunt last season. The point is not to compare Howard and Hunt. Or maybe it is.
In an offense with a 59:41 run:pass ratio, Hunt led the NFL with 1,327 yards, gained at a rate of 4.9 yards per carry. More to the Nagy point, three of his 53 receptions ended in touchdowns. Even more to the Nagy point, one of those went 78 yards for a score.
Not that Nagy particularly cares now, but Hunt has taken Patrick Mahomes passes this year for scores from 67, 15, 6 and 5 yards. Nagy likely was personally watching the 67-yarder, since it came in the Chiefs game against New England on the Sunday night before the Bears played the Patriots, and while Hunt was averaging 8.0 yards on his 10 carries. As if he needed any more reminding, Nagy probably saw that long, scoring pass play more than once as part of film study for New England, a game in which Howard had one target and catch for nine yards, and averaged 3.3 yards on his 12 carries.
Good chance Nagy was also watching the Monday night that Hunt and the Chiefs beat the Denver Broncos with Hunt rushing for 121 yards (6.4 yards per carry) and caught three passes for another 54 yards, half of those on a catch for 27 yards. And this past Sunday night, when Hunt scored three touchdowns, two on Mahomes passes, in the Kansas City obliteration of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Howard has never 50 receiving yards in any of his 37 career games. Hunt has topped 50 in six of his first 23. Different offenses, obviously, but just as obviously, different backs.
Hunt was a modest (22nd) pick in the 2017 draft. Third round of the 2017 draft. The third round. The round where the Bears currently happen to make their first pick in 2019.