The Bears have a clear formula for offensive success. Run, run, and then run some more. The Bears rank second in the NFL in rushing yards per game, first in rushing first down percentage, and sixth in yards per rush.
But those numbers don't tell the whole story of a Bears' rushing attack that might be a tad overrated. The Bears' rank 18th in EPA (expected points added) per rush and 28th in success rate. The run game has carried the offense through six games, but it's unlikely David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert will be able to do that Monday night against Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.
Why? Belichick is a master at making his opponent play left-handed. The Patriots just held the Cleveland Browns, who own one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL, to 70 yards on the ground.
If the Patriots bottle up Montgomery and Herbert, the Bears' best chance to leave Gillette Stadium with a win will be to follow the blueprint laid by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3 and lean on their best rushing threat: quarterback Justin Fields.
In Week 3, the Patriots harassed Lamar Jackson and forced him to play from the pocket for most of the first half. The Patriots trailed the Ravens 14-13, but they sacked Jackson four times and kept him from creating explosive plays with his legs.
That changed in the second half when the Ravens and offensive coordinator Greg Roman got the QB run game going, utilizing jet motion to get the Patriots linebackers moving and opening up lanes for Jackson.
In the second half, Jackson rushed for 69 yards and one touchdown. He was not sacked in the second half.
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Belichick's defenses have a history of struggling against mobile quarterbacks. This Patriots defense is no different, and the Bears may have to rely on Fields' legs to snap their three-game losing streak.
"Fields is a major threat every time he touches the ball," Belichick said Wednesday during a video conference call. "Very athletic kid."
The question is: Will the Bears be willing to use Fields in that way?
Fields has used his legs more over the last three games, although that has been by necessity and not design.
Through the first six weeks, the Bears have only called 13 designed runs for Fields, per Pro Football Focus. The second-year quarterback has only gained 17 yards on those 13 carries. But Fields has scrambled 33 times for 264 yards and had a 52-yard touchdown run in Week 5 called back due to an illegal block.
Over the last three games, Fields has scrambled 23 times for 183 yards. His 39-yard run at the end of the Bears' Week 6 loss to the Washington Commanders set Chicago up inside the 10 with a chance to win. An opportunity the Bears couldn't' convert.
The Bears' best offense has often been Fields creating something out of nothing with his athleticism. They need to harness and weaponize that Monday against the Patriots.
Patriots linebackers Jahlani Tavai, Raekwon McMillon, Mack Wilson and Ja'Whaun Bentley are downhill thumpers. But the Bears can exploit their lack of speed by getting them moving side to side, as Jackson and the Ravens did.
Jackson finished the win over the Patriots with 107 yards rushing and one touchdown while racking up 218 yards and four scores through the air. The threat of Jackson's legs softened up the Patriots' pass defense, got the linebackers flowing and opened up soft zones for tight end Mark Andrews and wide receivers Devin Duvernay and Rashod Bateman.
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The Bears' passing attack has been one of the worst in the NFL through six games. The offensive line has been a sieve, the receivers don't consistently separate, and Fields has had too many misses when given layups.
If the Patriots take away the Bears' run game Monday night, Chicago would be wise to do what it hasn't done this season: design plays to utilize Fields' legs and see if the second-year quarterback can emulate what Jackson did to Belichick's defense.
It might be their only chance to outclass Belichick in primetime.