Matt Nagy's worst-case scenarios in kneel-down decision were incredibly unlikely

Matt Nagy steadfastly defended his decision to kneel on first down with 43 seconds and a timeout remaining in the Bears' 17-16 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers over a 27-minute press conference Monday at Halas Hall, saying he would “do it again a thousand times.”

The Bears’ coach made a few points Monday he did not make on Sunday, when he defended his kneel-down call by pointing out what could go wrong (fumble, loss of yardage, sack, interception, etc.). 

First: Nagy said he should’ve included a holding penalty in his reasoning on Sunday, which could’ve pushed Pineiro into having to make a 51-yard field goal instead of a 41-yarder.

The Bears, for what it’s worth, have played their two cleanest games of 2019 in the last two weeks (three penalties vs. New Orleans, five vs. Los Angeles). 

Statistically, though, Nagy would’ve been better off not losing one yard on a kneel down. David Montgomery averaged five yards per carry on Sunday; even if he only gained three yards — the season average before Sunday — Pineiro’s field goal would’ve been from 37 yards, not 41. 

In 2019, 86 percent of 37-yard field goals have been good; only 73 percent of 41-yarders have gone through the uprights. Per Pro Football Reference, field goals of 37-39 yards have been made 72 percent of the time since 1960; 41 yarders have been good 68 percent of the time.

Meanwhile, 0.8 percent of running plays in 2019 have resulted in a fumble (about one in every 125 rushing attempts) in 2019. 12 percent of running plays have resulted in a loss this year, too. 

A fumble in that situation would’ve represented far worse luck than a missed 41-yard field goal. The same goes for a negative run. 

As for penalties, 3.3 percent of all running plays in 2019 have seen a flag thrown on the offense. Specifically: There have been 177 holding penalties assessed on running plays this year, about 2.7 percent. 

Again: Statistically in 2019, there’s a 27 percent chance a kicker misses a 41-yard field goal. Even a modest increase of four yards would've, on paper, improved Pineiro's chances of making that kick by 13 percent, a higher percentage than the chance of a loss of yardage, penalty or fumble. 

Coaches often make decisions with their gut, which is certainly not a bad thing for the people who have the best pulse of their players and game situations. But the numbers don’t jive with Nagy’s defense of his decision-making. 

More than anything, Nagy sounded like a coach who trusted his kicker to make a 41-yard field goal just as much as a 37- or 38-yard field goal, but didn’t have as much trust in his kicker to make a 48- or 51-yard field goal. And he swatted away a question about if his decision had anything to do with a lack of confidence in his players. 

“It’s not about concern, about anything can go wrong,” Nagy said. “That’s not what this is. It’s not about trust. It’s about playing smart. 

“It’s a 40-yard field goal. Think about that.”

The Colts Defense

Nagy’s second example Monday, though, was how Sunday’s Denver Broncos-Indianapolis Colts game played out before Adam Vinatieri hit a game-winning 51-yard field goal with about 20 seconds left. 

“Go back and watch that Colts game against Denver,” Nagy implored. “Watch Vic (Fangio) and tell me the coverage he played and tell me what happened on first, second and third down in that game before they kicked the game-winning field goal. Watch that and tell me tomorrow.”

We’ll tell you today, since we assume you were watching the Bears game at the same time. After a penalty brought the Colts to Denver’s 34-yard line, Indianapolis coach Frank Reich called for a play-action bootleg on first down that wound up leading to a sack. But: It was a smart sack to take, since Von Miller blew up the play and prevented Brissett from being able to find tight end Mo-Alie Cox, who might’ve been open up the seam on the opposite side of the play. Brissett extended the play to the sideline but slid in bounds, leading to a sack but forcing the Broncos to call a timeout. 

After that, the Colts ran the ball twice, not wanting to risk another sack to back them up. Those runs got Indianapolis back to the original line of scrimmage, and Vinatieri banged in the game-winning kick. 

“What Frank Reich did I’m agreeing with, with his calls,” Nagy said. “If I was at the 34-yard line where he was at on third down and nine from the 34, I would run the ball there, too. I would not QB kneel it.”

Perhaps Nagy’s point was to prove other coaches are conservative in those spots, too. But the situation was different: Indianapolis wanted to make Denver burn its timeouts and give the Broncos the ball back with as little time remaining as possible. 

Also: Vinatieri is the greatest kicker of all time. While he’s had his issues this year, it’s probably easier for a coach to feel comfortable being conservative when a future Hall of Famer is his kicker — and not a rookie who’s had some success but also doinked a 33-yarder earlier in the game. 

Also worth noting: Vinatieri kicked from the center of the field, while Pineiro missed wide left from the left hashmark. 

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