NBC Edge breaks down NFL Draft Day 2 quarterback prospects

Even with Andy Dalton under contract for the 2021 season, Ryan Pace and the Bears must draft a quarterback this year. As experts and fans review the top prospects, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Justin Fields and Trey Lance garner the most attention. But with quarterbacks expected to go 1-2-3 and several QB-needy teams slotted to pick in front of the Bears, there’s a real chance Pace won't get to draft one of the top-five guys. If that’s the case, the team will need to turn its attention to Day 2 to find a QB.

As part of their pre-draft coverage, NBC Edge and Derrik Klassen have posted in-depth breakdowns of several quarterback prospects. Unfortunately for the Bears, Klassen sees major issues for three of the top QBs expected to be drafted outside the first round: Kellen Mond, Davis Mills and Kyle Trask.

Let’s start with accuracy. Here, each quarterback performs well in some areas, but not in others. The disparity between the accuracy rates is so stark for some quarterbacks that Klassen admits it’s a bit confounding.

“Trask’s numbers do not make any sense,” Klassen said. “Trask is slightly above average to the 11-15 yard area and about average, perhaps a hair above, beyond 20 yards. The 11-15 yard area, to me, is the best for evaluating quarterbacks because the types of throws and windows quarterbacks often have to deal with in that area. It’s not always true for every quarterback or offense, but it often is.

“Trask is below average or straight up bad everywhere else, though. Trask is particularly horrifying in the 1-5 yard range (75.86%). Since 2020, the only QB to fare worse in that range is Nate Stanley, who should not have been drafted last year. Seeing as Trask is not a great passer in rhythm, it makes sense that quick game is not where he wins, but good lord, he is not even functional by pro standards. Trask is also below average, though not as disastrous, to the 6-10 yard area (70.93%). Of the eight 2021 QBs charted thus far, only Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond produced worse results in that range.”

However, Mond threw most of his balls in the intermediate range, which is the most important area of the field to look at when projecting NFL success, according to Klassen.

“It’s a nice sign that HC Jimbo Fisher felt comfortable letting him rock and roll on those kinds of concepts,” Klassen said. “ Mond’s accuracy to the 11-15 yard area, which he targeted at an obscene rate, would have been in line with the 2020 average and is only below-average in 2021 because the top of this class is uber-talented. He is also only slightly below average to the 6-10 yard area, and about average in the 1-5 area. Though not the most accurate guy around, Mond is at least capable up to about 15 yards, even if inconsistent.”

Finally, there’s Mills.

“Stanford QB Davis Mills’ accuracy by target area is perplexing,” Klassen said. “To all but one area of the field, Mills posted average-or-worse accuracy marks. Mills was particularly rough down the field, posting the worst and second-worst marks in the 16-20 and 20-plus yard ranges, respectively. Mills also tied for the fewest amount of accurate passes behind the line of scrimmage despite Stanford’s offense asking him to do it at a relatively high rate.

“And yet, Mills was slightly above-average to the 11-15 yard range, which is both the toughest and most valuable part of the field in terms of evaluation, for my money. Mills was especially strong on Stanford’s many seam routes, often showing off good enough touch and velocity to place those throws accurately.”

Klassen takes things a step further with context on each of the throws for a clearer picture. Unfortunately for Trask, the deeper Klassen got into the analytics, the bleaker his outlook.

“For one, 9.52% of his passes required clear adjustments from his pass-catchers. Not only is that the highest rate since 2020 by a wide margin, but it is more than double the 2020 class average. Trask does a decent job getting the ball into the vicinity of his receivers, but he often makes it very difficult for them to finish the job… Moreover, Trask’s 9.52% rate of passes being defended is the highest in the class. His rate of passes being outright dropped (3.11%) is second-lowest in the class behind only Zach Wilson. Trask 3.31% rate of contested drops was also second-lowest in the class, trailing only Mac Jones.”

Klassen argues Trask’s numbers look better on the surface because he was throwing to Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney, two of the best weapons in the draft. Their talent was able to cover up some of Trask’s shortcomings.

“Between the high rate of adjustments and passes defended juxtaposed by very low rates of his receivers dropping passes, it is clear who was making life tougher for who in the Florida offense.”

Mond on the other hand had a few encouraging areas to go along with a few other pain points.

“When operating under pressure, Mond did quite well,” Klassen said. “Mond’s 58.49% adjusted accuracy under pressure is better than Trey Lance and within 1.5% of both Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson. Considering Mond was pressured on over 20% of his snaps (some of that being his fault with how long he will hold the ball), those are pretty good results for Mond.

“Unfortunately, Mond was far less effective in the red zone (he completed just over 60% of his passes in that area). The red zone requires quarterbacks to be exceptionally quick with their processing and finish plays with accuracy into tight windows. While Mond has shown instances of both in his play, he is consistent in neither area, which is an issue exacerbated in the red zone when every single play requires both traits to be clicking.”

Then there’s Mills.

“To be blunt: Mills has the worst situational profile of any QB in this class,” Klassen said. “Mills has the lowest accuracy numbers in the fourth quarter/overtime (52.87%) as well as in the red zone (58.44%), and is only slightly better than Trey Lance on third/fourth downs (61.6%). Mills’ conversion rate on third/fourth downs is also third-worst in the class (46.91%). There is no real redeeming factor here.”

Yikes.

If the Bears drafted any of these three prospects, they’d likely have them sit and learn under Andy Dalton and Nick Foles for a full season, so it’s not like the team would need any of them to come in and perform right away. But according to Klassen, it seems like all three quarterbacks would be serious projects for Matt Nagy and John DeFilippo.

The NFL Draft’s first round kicks off on April 29.

Click here to subscribe to the Under Center Podcast for free.