Bears

View from the Moon: Olsen improving blocking

View from the Moon: Olsen improving blocking

Thursday, Jan. 13, 2011
11:34 AM

By John Mullin
CSNChicago.com

Dan, Dan, Dan, Christmas is over but the Grinch is still here.

Checking in with Dan McNeil and Matt Spiegel for our regular Thursday visit on WSCR-AM 670s The Danny Mac Show and poor Greg Olsen, whos developing into a respectable all-around tight end gets a shelling.

Listen to John 'Moon' Mullin's complete appearance

Olsen has clearly gotten and read the memo that blocking matters in the Mike Martz offense. While Olsen is not yet going to invite comparisons with Mike Ditka or John Mackey, Spiegs and I think that Olsen merits a stroke or two for getting it and improving at something hes not exceptional at.

Mac isnt having it, giving Olsen a hockey facial for not figuring this all out until this, his fourth NFL season. But my thought here is that Olsen was in a Ron Turner West Coast scheme his first three years and that system exploits defenses with the pass-catching of tight ends. Bill Walsh always maintained that the tight end was the overlooked key to why his system was especially dangerous.

My sense of Olsen is that hes akin to Val Kilmer look-alike Ryan Wetnight, an undersized tight end who played for Turner at Stanford and with the Bears. Wetnight was an exceptional receiver who still ranks in the Bears top 25 all-time in catches (172). Olsen has flown past Wetnight this year and ranks 17th all-time with 194.

Danny, leave the boy be. He'll be fine.

Whether the Seahawks will be is another matter and I dont think Seattle gets past the Bears this weekend. I also thought that the Hawks are a sort of pocket-Americas Team, a total underdog in a football-loving nation that loves underdogs.

Spiegs I think changed my thinking. First, there are too many people stung by the perceived injustice of a 7-9 team even being in the playoffs, let alone getting a home game (vs. New Orleans). He thought the Packers were more likely Americas darling-to-be and I think I agree with that. Aaron Rodgers is likeable and colorful (and, like, really really good) and any team with 14 players on IR, including eight starters, is an underdog by definition.

Likeable probably doesnt apply in large measure to Jay Cutler, which is a topic of amusement in a week awash in football. Cutler doesnt care about his public perception, or at least that whats said, and which I dont particularly believe, but thats for another time.

Cutler is certainly aware of what a good public face can mean to a post-football career in broadcasting but thats just not him. Never has been, not here, not in Denver. If hes not catering to image, hey, he makes 10 million a year and if he wins, the imagell be fine.

It does surprise me a little that he doesnt have more fun with those media sessions the way Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher do, even if they dont necessarily like doing them. But thats him and thats his choice.

Assuming the Bears keep playing, well check in next Thursday at 10.

John "Moon" Mullin is CSNChicago.com's Bears Insider, and appears regularly on Bears Postgame Live and Chicago Tribune Live. Follow Moon on Twitter for up-to-the-minute Bears information.

Another day, another reason why Bears won the Khalil Mack trade

mack_bears.jpg
USA TODAY

Another day, another reason why Bears won the Khalil Mack trade

Oh, now this is a doozy.

As if it wasn't obvious enough already, the Bears absolutely won the Khalil Mack trade over the Raiders. Not only did they acquire the 2016 defensive player of the year, but they did so when the rival Green Bay Packers were also interested. Based on a recent revelation from Packers president Mark Murphy, the extent to which the Bears won the trade is greater than we may have realized. 

In an interview with 105.7 The FAN, Murphy revealed a unique reason as to why the Raiders chose the Bears over the Packers.

"Well the whole Khalil Mack thing. It's not that we didn't try," Murphy said on Thursday. "We were aggressive. We wanted to sign him. I think, ironically, the Raiders took the Bears offer because they thought they would be a better draft pick."

As it turned out, the Packers had a higher first-round pick (No. 12 overall) than the Bears (No. 24) in 2019. This very well could change in 2020, but for the time being, let's get this straight.

Not only did the Bears acquire one of the best (if not the best) defensive players in football, but:

-Their trade package was highlighted by what should be two late first round picks (assuming the Bears remain a playoff team in 2019), and
-Acquiring Mack kept him out of Green Bay.

Talk about absolutely winning a deal. In the end, the Bears have a three-time All-Pro (2015-16, 2018) pash rusher entering his age 28 season. The Raiders and Packers surely cannot say the same thing.

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Why what 'Run DMC' does catching passes in training camp will be a big clue for how good the Bears' offense will be

Why what 'Run DMC' does catching passes in training camp will be a big clue for how good the Bears' offense will be


How much better Mitch Trubisky will be is the defining question for the 2019 Bears. But we won’t begin to know the answer to that question until September — it’s not something that’ll be easily discernible during training camp practices in Bourbonnais or a handful of snaps in preseason games. Those can sometimes produce false positives and false negatives.

The Bears believe in Trubiskiy, of course, and you’ll likely hear Matt Nagy and players laud their quarterback’s growth over the coming weeks. But belief is one thing; tangible production is another. And we won’t truly get to see that growth until the night of Sept. 5 at Soldier Field. 

But there are a few things to look for in Bourbonnais that could clue us in that a big-time leap is coming for No. 10. We’ll begin this mini-series leading up to the start of training camp next week with this: Better success from running backs catching passes on first down. 

It’s a narrowly specific angle, but one that carries plenty of weight. Consider this excerpt from Warren Sharp’s 2019 Football Preview:

“First down has long been perceived as a running down. In 2017, the league-wide average run-pass split on first down was 47-53. It was 50-50 last season, but that was still well below the 59-41 league-wide split on all downs. Yet passing to running backs on first down is significantly more effective.

“In 2018, there were 6,248 running back rushing attempts on first down. They averaged 4.5 yards per carry, minus-0.01 Expected Points Added per attempt, and a positive play rate of 41.3%. When teams threw to running backs on first down, they averaged 6.02 yards per target, 7.8 yards per receptions. 0.08 EPA per attempt — slightly more efficient than the average of all passes regardless of down at 0.05 EPA — and a positive play rate of 52.3%.”

The larger point here (especially if your eyes glazed over some of those numbers — which, we promise, make sense) is this: Scheming more throws to running backs on first down is an area in which almost every team in the NFL can improve. It's worth noting the Kansas City Chiefs' most effective play on first-and-long in 2018, per Sharp, was a pass to Kareem Hunt. 

And the good news is the Bears re-worked their running back room in a way that could optimize their success throwing the ball to David Montgomery, Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen on first down. 

The 2018 Bears simply didn’t have the personnel to do that regularly or successfully.

Jordan Howard was only targeted nine times on first-and-10, catching five passes for 42 yards. All nine of those targets were short throws, either to the left (two), middle (one) or right (six), and Trubisky had a passer rating of 83 on those attempts. Meanwhile, Howard carried the ball 128 times on first-and-10, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and only generating nine first downs (the NFL average for rushing attempts on first-and-10 in 2018 was 4.7 yards per carry). 

Cohen was, roughly, the inverse of Howard’s numbers: He caught 30 of 37 targets for 241 yards (6.5 yards per target) and generated seven first downs through the air, but averaged just 3.2 yards on his 46 rushing attempts with four first downs. Neither player was particularly balanced in these scenarios: Howard was mildly ineffective running the ball and not a threat catching it; Cohen was largely ineffective running the ball but was a threat catching it. 

And for the crowd who still believes Nagy wasn’t willing to establish the run: The combined rushing attempts on first-and-10 of Howard, Cohen, Benny Cunningham and Taquan Mizzell totaled 182; the combined pass attempts by Trubisky and Chase Daniel in that down-and-distance was 176, per Pro Football Reference’s play index. 

The Bears, in 2018, averaged 5.5 yards per play on first-and-10, tied for 24th in the NFL. Yet only three teams — the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts — averaged fewer yards-to-go on third down than the Bears’ mark of 6.9. That’s a sign of Nagy’s playcalling prowess and the talent on this offense, and it’s not a stretch to argue an improvement of first-and-10 success will have a significant impact on the overall success of the Bears’ offense. 

So back to the initial point about passes to running backs in these situations: The Bears believe both Montgomery and Davis have some untapped potential as pass-catching running backs. Montgomery caught 71 passes in college at Iowa State, while Davis was targeted the most by the Seattle Seahawks in 2018 on first down (17 of 42 targets). Cohen, of course, is already an accomplished pass-catcher. 

The “Run DMC” backfield needs to have more success carrying the ball on first-and-10 than last year’s group did, of course. But if you’re in Bourbonnais or watching a preseason game, keep an eye out for how effective the Bears are at passing to their running backs — especially if those passes travel beyond the line of scrimmage (another inefficiency noted by Warren Sharp's 2019 Football Preview). 

If you start seeing Montgomery making defenders miss after catching a pass, or Davis looking fluid with the ball in his hands, or Cohen breaking off some explosive gains — those will be significant reasons to believe in Trubisky and the Bears' offense in 2019. 

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