Each day in March, NBC Sports Chicago is previewing one player from the Cubs’ expected 2020 Opening Day roster. First up is third baseman Kris Bryant.
2019 recap
Bryant looked more like himself last season after dealing with a debilitating shoulder injury in 2018. He posted similar batting averages and on-base percentages in the two campaigns, but the shoulder ailment zapped his power in 2018. A look at the season-by-season numbers:
2018: 102 games, .272/.374/.460 slash line, 13 homers, 52 RBIs, .188 ISO
2019: 147 games, .282/.382/.521 line, 31 homers, 77 RBIs, .239 ISO
Note: ISO = isolated power, which indicates how often a player hits for extra bases. .140 is considered average., .170 is above average, .200 is great and .250 is considered excellent
Home run totals spiked league-wide last season but a healthier shoulder helped Bryant regain his power stroke. He was one of the Cubs’ most valuable hitters (135 wRC+, No. 3 behind Nick Castellanos and Anthony Rizzo) and led the team in WAR (4.8, according to FanGraphs).
While Bryant’s shoulder was healthy and he only missed 15 games, he sustained a right knee injury last July that affected him for the rest of the season. He recently said "any time you play the majority of the games, you’re healthy, regardless of any nagging injuries that you have."
MLB
His first and second-half splits tell a different story:
2019 pre-All-Star: 85 games, .297/.403/.552, 17 homers. 44 RBIs, 148 wRC+, 12.3 BB%, 19.5 K%
2019 post-All-Star: 62 games, .261/.351/.478, 14 homers, 33 RBIs, 116 wRC+, 10.8 BB%, 27.8 K%
The second-half strikeout rate was particularly alarming; his career average entering last season was 23.8%.
Expectations for this season’s role
To date, the biggest story out of Cubs spring training is manager David Ross naming Bryant his leadoff hitter. The spot has been a problem for the Cubs post-2016 and the hope is that Bryant's hefty presence makes opposing pitchers work right out of the gate.
Anthony Rizzo will hit second, keeping the familiar Bryzzo pairing back-to-back — just a few spots higher in the lineup.
Bryant has 31 career plate appearances batting leadoff. It's a small sample size, but he's hit .321/.387/.464 with 126 wRC+ and 3.2 percent walk rate.
In past seasons, Bryant spent most of his time at third base while also playing the outfield and occasionally first base. Ross said Saturday that Bryant will get some reps in the outfield this season but made it clear that he’s the club’s everyday third baseman.
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2020 outlook
Bryant is coming off of an All-Star season and while his production hasn’t nose-dived the over the last two years, he plays at a higher level when he’s healthy. The best-case scenario for the Cubs is that he doesn't encounter any persistent ailments in 2020 and his production will carry over to the leadoff spot.
If that’s the case, we could see a domino effect on the rest of the lineup, with Bryant setting the table for Rizzo and the middle of the order. We know that Bryant will get on base, slug and almost always put together a quality at-bat. Moving him to leadoff won't change that.
But if the Cubs struggle out of the gate, Bryant’s name will, once again, pop up in trade rumors and the club might move on with an eye towards the future. They’re hoping Bryant leads them back to the postseason after disappointing finishes the past two seasons.
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