What Cubs' road trip said about rebuild process, timeline

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If there’s anything worth watching for signs of what’s next with this Cubs team, we saw a glimpse of it during the surprisingly successful road trip out west over the past week.

Starting pitching.

And to be clear, when we talk about what’s next, we mean next year and beyond in whatever team president Jed Hoyer is calling this reset/rebuild/tanking process.

But that’s where a guy like Justin Steele comes in. The second-year left-hander had his best start of the season by far in Sunday’s series-clinching win in Arizona — the first homegrown pitcher to strike out 10 in a game for the Cubs since Jeff Samardzija in 2014.

That eight-year gap tells a lot of the story of how the Cubs declined from their 2016 championship, and it might begin to tell the story of their best chance to contend again anytime soon.

Another homegrown Cub, right-hander Keegan Thompson — who has been one of the team’s best performers as a long-relief man this season — was pressed into starting duty Wednesday by Marcus Stroman’s COVID-19-IL absence, and he was competitive for four innings (two runs allowed) in another Cubs victory.

Along the way, Kyle Hendricks looked more like himself in two starts, both wins, one of them dominant, as a rotation that still ranks among the lower rungs of the league produced a 2.97 collective ERA and two of their five quality starts of the season on the swing through San Diego and Arizona.

The starters also, finally, have pitched more innings this season than the bullpen, which was not the case before the trip started.

It’s no coincidence that the starting pitching was a huge part of producing a winning trip — or that it’ll provide the biggest predictor for what comes next with this team in transition.

The state of the starting pitching is going to be the best indicator of how close the Cubs are to competing at any point during this process — how far they are from the likes of the Dodgers as they look to address needs next winter.

So keep an eye on Steele and Thompson (who figures to get a shot at a regular starting job at some point this season).

And watch for the return of Stroman, who’s in the first year of a three-year contract, and how he performs the rest of the way.

And look for Wade Miley — who was pulled off a rehab assignment after only one start because of the urgent need in the big-league rotation — to get stronger and effective as he builds value toward the Aug. 2 trade deadline.

Also keep another eye on Iowa, where Caleb Kilian — the 6-4 right-hander the Cubs got from the Giants for Kris Bryant last summer — has a 1.57 ERA in seven starts on a 2022 arc that should land him a big-league debut at some point.

And others in the system.

Even after the big week, the Cubs are on early pace through 33 games for 98 losses.

Maybe they get that pace down to 90 or so by the time they play the Pirates, Diamondbacks and Reds over the next 11 games.

But if you want to know how fast this franchise has a chance to get back to the top — or at least be in position for ownership and the front office to consider chasing another summit run one of these winters — don’t get distracted by the lineup.

Keep your eye on the ball. Out of the starting pitcher’s hand.

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