NBC Sports Chicago is evaluating some of the most pressing Cubs questions entering spring training. Next up: Can closer Craig Kimbrel bounce back in 2020?
Signing closer Craig Kimbrel looked like a no-brainer for the Cubs last season.
Locked in a free agent impasse, Kimbrel remained available into June, when the draft and bonus pool penalties attached to him were lifted. Meanwhile — with Brandon Morrow and Pedro Strop on the mend — the Cubs bullpen suffered numerous early season meldowns.
Morrow and Strop being on the shelf isn't the sole reason the bullpen struggled. But when the Cubs gained financial flexibility from Ben Zobrist's unpaid personal leave of absence, adding Kimbrel (three years, $43 million) was the best solution. It's not often a healthy, elite closer remains unsigned into summertime.
Rather than fortify the bullpen, Kimbrel had his worst season as a big leaguer. In 23 appearances, the 31-year-old sported a 6.53 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 12.5 percent walk rate. He surrendered a career-high nine home runs across just 20 2/3 innings — including three in a critical September series against the Cardinals that were difference makers.
Kimbrel felt ready to contribute last June, but he dealt with some unorthodox circumstances. Rather than working out any kinks in February, March and even April, he had three weeks to prepare in the minor leagues before the Cubs recalled him on June 27. He stayed in shape at home, but there’s a difference between throwing sim-games and pitching in high-leverage moments at Wrigley Field.
“We knew that given that he wouldn’t have a normal spring training, given that he was trying to do something that very few had ever done before, which was join the team midstream in a closer’s role, that there would be some risk,” Cubs president Theo Epstein said on 670 The Score in September. “We felt it was certainly a risk worth taking.
MLB
“I think it’s impossible to pinpoint how much of his struggles have been because of that, but from my perspective it’s the single biggest factor. He’s never struggled like this before. He’s never even been close to having this type of performance before.”
Kimbrel hit the 10-day injured list on separate occasions with right knee and right elbow inflammation. Injuries happen, but perhaps those nagging ailments wouldn’t have if he had a normal buildup to the season. This is obviously hard to forecast, however.
There’s reason for concern with Kimbrel. His fastball velocity averaged 96.2 mph last season, down from 97.1 (2018) and 98.3 (2017). You can make a mistake when throwing 98-100 mph, but not so much at 95-97 — especially for a two-pitch guy like Kimbrel. Opponents hit .326 against Kimbrel’s four-seamer last season; righties alone held a .289/.426/.763 slash line with five homers.
If Kimbrel doesn’t bounce back, the tight-budgeted Cubs will be paying an ineffective closer $16 million, money that could have been used elsewhere this winter. But there’s reason to believe Kimbrel’s 2019 woes were somewhat fluky and the result of his unusual offseason. The Cubs believe a normal buildup to the 2020 season will go a long way for their ninth inning man.
“He's really determined to have a great offseason and looking forward to a full and legitimate spring training," Epstein said in September. "He feels awful about the way this year went, recognized that he was in an unusual position, but I think you'll see a really determined individual who will benefit from the full spring training."
Cubs questions entering camp: Will Kris Bryant be with the club on Opening Day?
Click here to download the new MyTeams App by NBC Sports! Receive comprehensive coverage of the Chicago Cubs easily on your device.