Cubs rotation projection after Arrieta, Williams additions
As much as the Cubs starting rotation has changed this offseason, it looks quite different from even just a few weeks ago after two late-winter additionsFollowing the signing of right-hander Trevor Williams, team president Jed Hoyer said the Cubs could add more starting pitching leading up to spring training. That came true on Friday, with the club’s agreement on a reunion with free agent Jake Arrieta, which is pending a physical.The additions of Williams and Arrieta, both on one-year deals, add two veteran arms to a rotation that has lost four this offseason in Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, José Quintana and Tyler Chatwood. Williams comes over after five seasons in Pittsburgh, while Arrieta returns to Chicago, his home from 2013-17, after three seasons in Philadelphia.That added rotation experience will be especially important this season to cover the innings increase from 2020. Hoyer recently said the Cubs are looking at needing seven or eight starters in 2021, “given the fact that people are going to have some innings restrictions” following last season’s 60-game schedule.Manager David Ross now has at least six starters at his disposal, with a handful of other options in the picture as well. How does that group stack up? Glad you asked.With spring training right around the corner, here’s an early (and updated) Opening Day rotation projection.
No change atop the rotation from our last projection. Hendricks is still the Cubs’ clear No. 1 starter and ace. The right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the past five seasons and holds a career 3.12 ERA in seven seasons.
Hendricks made his first Opening Day start in 2020, receiving the nod over Darvish, and tossed a complete-game shutout against Milwaukee. If he wasn’t already the favorite to start the season opener again, the Cubs’ trade of Darvish to San Diego in December solidified his status for April 1 against Pittsburgh.
Hendricks has many accolades on his résumé — Opening Day starter, ERA title and World Series champ. Will 2021 be the year he makes his first All-Star team?
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Arrieta was one of the Cubs top starters during his first tenure with the team. He’s since had three up-and-down seasons with the Phillies, going 22-23 with a 4.36 ERA in 64 starts while missing time due to a bone spur in his elbow that required season-ending surgery (2019) and a right hamstring strain (2020).
It’s unfair to expect Arrieta, 35 next month, to duplicate his incredible three-season run from 2015-17, when he threw two no-hitters and won a Cy Young Award. However, he’s still an experienced veteran who will go out and compete every outing.
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Arrieta's deep arsenal of pitches and overall stuff will offer opponents a different look from the soft-tossing Hendricks and Davies, hence placing him between the two. That stuff has helped him deliver the fourth-best ground ball rate (51.5 percent) among all qualified starters since 2018, according to FanGraphs.
Before Williams and Arrieta arrived, Davies was the only Cubs starter (besides Hendricks) with a full 162-game season in a big league rotation under his belt. He previously projected to be the No. 2 starter and still could be, but Arrieta offers Ross some options.
Davies’ primary pitches are a sinker and changeup that help him induce soft contact. He’s had success in his six big league seasons, going 50-36 with a 3.79 ERA between the Brewers (2015-19) and Padres (2020). He’s largely been durable, making 28 or more starts three times from 2016-19.
The right-hander is also coming off his best season yet. In 12 starts with San Diego last season, he went 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA.
Williams, like Hendricks, Davies and Alec Mills, is a command pitcher with a low-90s fastball. He’s coming off two down seasons (5.60 ERA, 37 starts) with Pittsburgh but is only a few seasons removed from an impressive 2018 (3.11 ERA, 31 starts).
The Cubs believe Williams, who has five pitches in his arsenal, will fit well within their infrastructure that has seen Hendricks and Mills have success, and help him to return closer to his 2018 form.
"Listen, we’re not trying to corner the market on control-command guys," Hoyer quipped. "I think it seems that way with getting Zach Davies this winter and adding Trevor Williams.
"Obviously I love guys that throw 97 [mph], but I do think our infrastructure has done really well with these guys and I think he’ll flourish here."
Mills notably threw a no-hitter in his first go-around in a big league rotation last season. Overall, he went 5-5 with a 4.48 ERA in 11 outings, five of which were quality starts.
Mills’ career-high in starts as a professional is 23, which he accomplished twice in the minor leagues (2016 and ’18). The Cubs will have to be mindful of his workload as he enters his first full 162-game season in the majors, certainly following a season in which he tossed just 62 1/3 innings.
That said, the Cubs will look for him to build off 2020 and provide durability in the new-look rotation.
Placing Alzolay, also entering his first full season, here is by considering the Cubs may roll with a six-man rotation for large portions of the upcoming season. Coming off a strange 2020, a best-case scenario may be six pitchers (assuming health) get a hefty load of starts with the reality of workload limitations.
Alzolay will get every chance in the world to start. The Cubs want him to develop into a long-term rotation arm and he looked good in a limited sample last season (six games/four starts, 2.95 ERA).
Alzolay also has minor league options. If the Cubs choose a different route for their rotation initially, they could start him in Triple-A and shuttle him to the big leagues, depending on what their needs are.
In any case, the Cubs will need plenty of starting pitching this season, and Hoyer spoke generally of potential limitations while using Alzolay as an example.
“He’s definitely going to throw important innings for us this year, but there’s no way you can push him to a normal workload, just given what happened last year,” he said of the right-hander. “I think we have to be pretty mindful of that as we go through it.”
A best-case scenario may be six pitchers making a chunk of starts, but best-case scenarios are rare in any season. As Hoyer alluded to, the Cubs will need many starters, whether it’s due to workload constraints, health or any other factors.
Outside of the aforementioned six arms, other potential starting options on the 40-man roster include Tyson Miller and Kohl Stewart, and Cory Abbott, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson and Gray Fenter, though the latter four haven't made their MLB debuts.
Veteran Shelby Miller, a spring training non-roster invitee, is another option.
Tyson Miller, 25, made two appearances (one start) in 2020 and Stewart, 26, has made 17 career appearances (2018-19 with Minnesota), including six starts. Both guys are potential long-relief options for the Opening Day bullpen.
Abbott, Steele and Thompson, all 25, each were Cubs top 30 prospects last season and have starting experience in the minors. Fenter, the Cubs’ Rule 5 draft pick this past December, has experience as a starter and reliever in the minors, but the 25-year-old hasn’t pitched above Single-A.
How many of these guys make a big league start this season is to be seen, but as you can see, the Cubs have numerous options behind the projected rotation that very well could take the bump at some point in 2021.
