The White Sox didn’t exactly need Blake Snell, acquiring their big-name rotation upgrade before the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays swung a blockbuster trade Sunday.
The Padres keep making headlines as they make their own push toward World Series contention. They’re sort of the National League version of the White Sox, a team bursting with young talent that could keep it competitive for years. They’ve made their own splashy outside additions, as well.
The Padres will always be tied to the White Sox, for the Fernando Tatís Jr. trade and for beating out the South Siders in the Manny Machado sweepstakes two offseasons ago.
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They didn’t need to beat out the White Sox this time, to land Snell, the 2018 AL Cy Young winner who is under contract for another three seasons. The South Siders bolstered their starting staff with a deal for Lance Lynn earlier this month. And while it’s indeed nicer to have four frontline pitchers than three, the White Sox seem confident in Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech at the back end of the rotation and that new pitching coach Ethan Katz can get them near the level of Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel and Lynn, three top-seven finishers in the 2020 AL Cy Young vote.
But even if the White Sox were hypothetically intent on crafting a super rotation for 2021, they might have been edged again by the Padres, who gave up quite the prospect package. Of course, with the Padres in the same position as the White Sox — emerging from rebuilding mode and ready to compete for championships — that’s not a bad thing.
While the White Sox were able to acquire Lynn from the Texas Rangers for Dane Dunning and a lesser known pitching prospect, Lynn is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2021 season. It was undoubtedly a win-now deal.
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The same can be said for the Snell trade, in which the Padres sent a quartet of well regarded prospects to the Rays already potent farm system. But Snell’s longer term contract makes the return package a much more palatable cost for San Diego, which can now project three contending seasons with one of baseball’s top arms leading the charge — including 2022, when Mike Clevinger will rejoin that group and give the Padres a truly menacing starting staff.
As for that prospect package, the Padres built it around Luis Patiño, the No. 23 ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com. He wasn’t their top rated youngster — that's pitcher MacKenzie Gore, at No. 3 in baseball; shortstop CJ Abrams is ranked ahead of Patiño, too — but he’s a highly touted young pitcher nonetheless. Also going to Tampa Bay are catcher Francisco Mejía, pitcher Cole Wilcox and catcher Blake Hunt. Mejía was a top-10 prospect before reaching the majors and struggling at the plate. Wilcox was the Padres’ No. 7 prospect, a 2020 draftee who might’ve gone in the first round if not for financial reasons. It’s being evaluated as a terrific haul for the Rays.
So had the White Sox jumped into a battle for Snell, what would it have cost them?
Likely Kopech, who would be their equivalent of Patiño. They’d get to hang on to their top ranked prospect, Andrew Vaughn, but it’d cost them their highest rated young pitcher, who's a few spots ahead of Patiño in MLB.com's rankings.
Drawing a comparison between Mejía and Nick Madrigal is tough, as Mejía’s got more big league experience and Madrigal performed well when he arrived in the majors in 2020. But perhaps that’s where the Rays would’ve looked next. Or maybe Zack Collins — a former top-10 draft pick who hasn’t gotten much opportunity at the big league level — makes more sense, as the Rays supposedly wanted catching help, getting two catchers in the Snell trade.
Wilcox seems a solid comparison to Jared Kelly, if for nothing more than boasting first-round talent but falling to a later round in this year’s draft for "signability" reasons. Though staying high on the White Sox prospect rankings and guessing that the Rays might’ve inquired about Jonathan Stiever or even Garrett Crochet makes a lot of sense, too.
The Padres gave up two of their top seven prospects and three of their top 14, plus a major leaguer, for Snell. It's no great leap to guess that had the White Sox been interested, it might've cost them, with their more top-heavy farm system, three or more of their top seven prospects.
But it’s all hypothetical, of course, and the White Sox won’t have to worry about Snell unless they meet the Padres in the World Series. Both teams are making moves to get there, and judging who did better in their respective trade becomes just talk-radio fodder from here. The Padres will have multiple chances to ride Snell to the promised land. But if Lynn adds another ring to his jewelry collection in 2021, then the White Sox made the right call.