Red Sox

Dombrowski: Sox 'still have a chance to work', Steven Wright could be 'big addition'

Dombrowski: Sox 'still have a chance to work', Steven Wright could be 'big addition'

Midway through June, the Boston Red Sox are sitting in third place in the AL East with a record of 36-34. Through 70 games, that's not exactly where the defending World Series champions wanted to be.

As a result, that has spurred some potential talks that the Red Sox could make a move to bolster their roster. Conversely, there has also been talk that they could sell off some parts to re-stock a mediocre farm system if they don't improve quickly.

However, Red Sox president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, isn't ready to change the team and referenced that a lot could change before the league's July 31 trade deadline.

“A lot can happen between now and [the trade deadline],” said Dombrowski, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. “Right now, even though we are not happy with the way we have played, we think we’re better. I think the players think we’re better, I think the staff thinks we’re better. Again, we all know we have to do it. We’re not by any means ready to say, ‘Oh, this is not going to work,’ because it still has a chance to work.”

Hypothetically, Dombrowski could be right, as this squad is largely the same one that was able to take home the title last year. However, they did lose their two best bullpen arms, Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly, and Nathan Eovaldi has missed a large chunk of the season with an elbow issue. And in Eovaldi's stead, the team's spot starters have struggled mightily.

Still, despite the negative attention that the pitching -- and specifically, the bullpen -- has gotten lately, Dombrowski isn't viewing the unit as a problem spot. He also pointed to Steven Wright's return as something that could bolster the pen.

“I think our bullpen gets way too much focus of attention as being a problem for us. I don’t think that they have performed anywhere nearly as poorly as some guys have said. I think some guys have performed very well, actually,” said Dombrowski, per Speier. “You put [Wright] in our bullpen, that’s a big addition all of a sudden for us.”

Wright was suspended for the first 80 games of the 2019 season after a positive PED test. He will be eligible to return to the Red Sox on June 25.

In 2018, Wright logged a 3-1 record with a 2.68 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 53 2/3 innings pitched. The knuckleballer started in four games and could help to fix the unit's troubles and serve as a solid spot starter at times.

Still, it is fair to question the Sox' bullpen. After all, they were forced to have Josh Smith, a pitcher with a career record of 0-2 with a 5.84 ERA, close last night's 7-6 victory. While it worked, it is still clear that they may be an arm short in the bullpen, despite what Dombrowski and Alex Cora think.

Perhaps the team could investigate trading for a back-end bullpen option if Wright's return doesn't spark the team the way that they are hoping. 

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Red Sox can look in one of these two directions to find their next GM

Red Sox can look in one of these two directions to find their next GM

The Red Sox fired Dave Dombrowski more than a month ago, and we still can't name a single candidate to replace him.

The mere existence of the opening has contributed to a run on contract extensions in front offices across baseball, however. The latest domino to fall was Dodgers boss Andrew Friedman, who announced on Monday that he's staying in Hollywood. He joins Arizona GM Mike Hazen and Minnesota VP Derek Falvey — two Massachusetts natives — on the list of those either extended or nearing an extension.

Any one of them could've been a compelling candidate in Boston, particularly Friedman, given his track record building winners in both large and small markets. And that's before we even consider hometown hero Theo Epstein, who recently restated his commitment to the Cubs, albeit without receiving a contractual sweetener like any of the above.

When Red Sox owner John Henry noted the difficulty of poaching opposing executives, he wasn't kidding. The team's last two GMs were either hired from within (Ben Cherington) or plucked off the street (Dombrowski).

What should be one of the most coveted jobs in the game is instead serving as little more than leverage for some big names to stay put. So where do the Red Sox go from here?

Their pool may have narrowed, but their general options remain the same: familiarity or change.

The former is represented by the Epstein school of executives with Red Sox ties, as we discussed after Dombrowski's ouster. This starts with Epstein himself, and even if his commitment to Chicago sounds definitive, he can't be entirely discounted until the Red Sox hire someone else. The same goes for Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, who was linked to the job in one report, but hasn't been since.

With Henry claiming he wants to hire an experienced candidate, especially given the challenges facing whoever takes the job, that would seemingly eliminate Arizona assistants Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter, as well as Mets exec Jared Banner, who all spent time here.

What that leaves is Option B — an executive without Boston ties who has demonstrated success elsewhere and can give the Red Sox operation a fresh perspective.

One such man is Tampa's Chaim Bloom, a Yale grad like Epstein who has helped oversee Tampa's resurgence despite one of baseball's smallest payrolls. He's the team's VP of baseball operations alongside GM Erik Neander. The Rays followed up a 90-win 2018 with 96 wins and a wild card berth. They then rode one of baseball's most unconventional pitching staffs to Game 5 of the ALDS against the Astros.

With defending Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell limited to barely 100 innings by injuries and breakout candidate Tyler Glasnow making only 12 starts for the same reason, the Rays still found a way. Of their 14 pitchers who made starts, 11 also pitched in relief. Former Red Sox farmhand Jalen Beeks, acquired in the Nathan Eovaldi trade, threw over 100 innings despite making only three starts.

The Rays found a creative way to build their staff with castoffs and prospects and one targeted free agent strike in All-Star right-hander Charlie Morton, and the result was the best ERA in the American League. The Red Sox, meanwhile, devoted megabucks to Chris Sale, David Price, and Eovaldi, and then watched all three break down en route to a staff ERA of 4.70 — more than a run higher than Tampa's 3.65.

Tampa's ability to find and develop cheap pitching stands in direct contrast to Boston's struggles in that regard dating back to Epstein. The Red Sox have drafted and developed just two starters of note since 2000 — Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz — and had they a deeper well of talent in the minors, they wouldn't have needed to devote more than $400 million to the Big Three.

The Astros, Rays, Dodgers, and Yankees have surpassed the Red Sox from a player development standpoint, which isn't just limited to the minor leagues. Improving the performance of big leaguers matters, too, whether it's New York turning castoffs like Luke Voit and Mike Tauchman into useful sluggers, the Rays finding diamonds under virtually every rock, or the Dodgers hitting on All-Stars Max Muncy and Justin Turner for nothing.

The question will be if the Red Sox can peel anyone away from the aforementioned organizations, especially since Boston's top job hasn't exactly exuded stability recently. And that's before we even consider the challenges awaiting the next GM as they relate to payroll and the future of Mookie Betts.

The Red Sox insist they will cast a wide net, and eventually they'll find their man. But for now it's a tad disconcerting that the best candidates aren't even interested in hearing what Boston has to say.

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Four potentially undervalued pitchers Red Sox could target this offseason

Four potentially undervalued pitchers Red Sox could target this offseason

It's time for the Red Sox to start thinking like a small-market team, because burning money in the name of their rotation could have dire consequences that stretch well into the 2020s.

With Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi set to earn $80 million annually through 2022 despite being major injury risks, the Red Sox will need to bargain hunt to fill the rest of their rotation. So where might they turn?

The key will be finding undervalued assets. One way to identify them is to look for pitchers with the biggest disparity between their ERA and FIP.

The latter — fielding independent pitching — is an ERA-like number derived from the events a pitcher can directly control: walks, strikeouts, home runs, and hit by pitches, the idea being that everything else is in the hands of the defense. FIP has its flaws, because it operates on the assumption that a pitcher can't impact balls in play, which means hurlers aren't credited for the majority of their outs, but it can still be a useful tool.

A wide spread between a pitcher's ERA and FIP can suggest bad luck or bad defense that mask some underlying strengths. The Red Sox, interestingly enough, looked a lot better as a staff via FIP than ERA, led by Chris Sale (4.40 ERA vs. 3.39 FIP), David Price (4.28 vs. 3.62), and even Rick Porcello (5.52 vs. 4.76).

Their staff ERA of 4.70 surpassed their 4.28 FIP by the widest margin of any team in baseball. Defensive metrics are notoriously spotty, but Fangraphs ranked Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts dead last at his position in defensive runs saved, saying he cost the Red Sox 19 runs. Similarly, center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. (minus-2) and third baseman Rafael Devers (minus-13) were considered negatives, too. Bogaerts and Devers aren't going anywhere, but Bradley, a defending Gold Glover, is likely to be traded this winter. The Red Sox could also upgrade their defense at second base.

In any event, we're drifting a little far afield. The point is finding opposing pitchers who significantly underperformed their FIP, which could make them targets this winter. Here are four names to remember.

1. Joe Musgrove, RHP, Pirates

A first-round pick of the Blue Jays in 2011, Musgrove was traded to the Astros a year later before joining Pittsburgh as the centerpiece in the 2018 Gerrit Cole blockbuster. He made a career-high 31 starts this year, going 11-12 with a 4.44 ERA that masked a 3.82 FIP.

Those relatively middling numbers still established the 26-year-old as Pittsburgh's most effective starter, and he remains under team control through 2022.

With the Pirates in what feels like an eternal rebuild, it's hard to imagine they'd consider any player untouchable. Musgrove could make for an intriguing target.

2. Kevin Gausman, RHP, Reds

Gausman is a non-tender candidate, since he's set to make at least $10 million in his final year of arbitration. Chosen fourth overall in the 2012 draft by the Orioles, Gausman was once considered a top-10 prospect.

He has yet to live up to that hype, but he's better than the numbers suggested last year between Atlanta, where he posted a 6.19 ERA (and 4.20 FIP) in 16 starts, and Cincinnati, where he found use as a reliever (4.03 ERA, 3.17 FIP). Gausman struck out a career-high 10 batters per nine innings and is still only 28, so perhaps a flyer is in order, particularly if other teams are viewing him as a reliever and the Red Sox give him an opportunity to start.

3. Spencer Turnbull, RHP, Tigers

How does the AL's loss leader sound? Pitching for a woeful team, Turnbull went just 3-17 with a 4.61 ERA in 30 starts. His 3.99 FIP suggests better stuff than results, however, and he doesn't become a free agent until 2025.

Turnbull throws 95-97 and is considered a piece of Detroit's future, but it never hurts to ask. The 27-year-old went winless in his final 18 starts and is a late bloomer who was still pitching in Double A at age 25.

4. Pablo Lopez, RHP, Marlins

The rookie went 5-8 with a 5.09 ERA in 21 starts, but his 4.28 FIP and low walk rates (2.2 per nine innings) suggest some promise. The 23-year-old hails from Venezuela and can't become a free agent until 2025. He features a low-90s fastball and changeup, and the Marlins like his competitiveness. Being the Marlins means they're in perpetual fire-sale mode, however, and Lopez is worth a look.

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