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The smoke of the Old Dominion concert has subsided as 132 players have accepted their invitations to the biggest party in golf. Lost in the theatrics of the 16th-hole, spectators rushing the gates like a scene out of “World War Z,” and influencers pleading you to, “Swipe up!” is one of the best fields we have seen in 2022.
Gone are the days of amateurs causing six-hour rounds and gone are the days of tournaments featuring a multiple course rotation. Finally, golf fans and prognosticators are treated with a proper tournament in which we can sink our teeth into.
Annually sharing the Sunday spotlight with a little thing called the Super Bowl, last year’s Waste Management Phoenix Open saw a fitting winner in Brooks Koepka (+2800). Highlighted by a chip-in eagle-2 on the drivable par-4 17th, the four-time major winner was able to right the ship as Justin Thomas (+1200), Jordan Spieth (+1800), and Xander Schauffele (+2000) took on water in the final round.
The man “built like a linebacker” is always worthy of consideration when the PGA Tour stops at the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale. A venue where course history consistently reigns supreme, Koepka along with Hideki Matsuyama (+1600), Bubba Watson (+4000), and others should once again play a factor.
Throw in Scottsdale residents such as Tony Finau (+3300) and the tournament-favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook, Jon Rahm (+700), and on paper it appears a quality victor is in-store. Playing out of Silverleaf Club on their weeks off, both possess the course record on the Tom Weiskopf design – the architect also responsible for this week’s venue as well as TPC Craig Ranch.
While the world No. 1 is the rightful favorite, it is the young Norwegian and newly acclaimed world No. 3 who drives the most fear into us. With three victories in his last five worldwide starts, Viktor Hovland (+1600) has been able to do something Rahm has been unable to, win. Showcasing his ability to not only play with a lead, but chase down those ahead, the 24-year-old could be in line for his first victory in the continental United States.
Writer’s Note: Puerto Rico is a territory of the United States, please read a book.
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Despite the litany of premium players occupying the top of the odds board, our first quandary arrives when looking at Scottie Scheffler (+2800) and Sam Burns (+4000). With the recent influx of first-time winners, Scheffler could surely continue this trend, and while I would not mind going with both, I have decided Burns alone will be our starting point.
Unable to carry the momentum of the last half of 2021 into 2022, the LSU product has struggled with his iron-play in his two starts this year. Finishing in a tie for 19th at the Tournament of Champions and missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, we are given an affordable price on a typically expensive 25-year-old.
As before this downturn in quality, Burns was vastly considered “the next big thing” or “one to watch in 2022.” Less forgetful than most, the last two times we saw the world No. 13 in the desert setting, he impressed, finishing in a tie for fifth at THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT and a tie for 14th at the Shriners Children’s Open.
Adding to his list of noteworthy outcomes, not only have we seen Burns win twice since May, but also finish runner-up the same number of times. With these results coming at the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational where a short birdie-miss effectively handed the trophy to Abraham Ancer (+5000), Burns has proven to play well on Weiskopf designs as well as in elite fields.
With the next step in his career progression being a victory in a field of this caliber, I would much rather bank on that in lieu of a first-time winner. A completely different player from even a year ago, Burns’ course history does leave plenty to be desired. Missing the cut in his first two goes around TPC Scottsdale, Burns was able to collect a paycheck last season, finishing in a tie for 22nd, by way of a scorching hot putter as he posted a career best +10.9 SG: Putting.
While a repeat of this putting display is highly unlikely, his comfort level on slick, Bermuda greens is notable. A tee-to-green savant with 10 performances of 4.0+ SG: Tee-to-Green in his last 17 starts, it is not a matter of if, but a matter of when Burns will bounce back, and for my money, I am comfortable suggesting it will be this week.
When trekking past Burns on the odds board, some may be inclined to make stops at Webb Simpson (+3300) and Louis Oosthuizen (+4000) based on course history. With no opinion one way or another on the two, I ventured a bit farther down with every intention of backing Billy Horschel (+5000) who was the betting-favorite at one point on the back-nine of the Farmers Insurance Open.
Instead, after some digging, the price on Corey Conners (+6000) caught my eye and is a touch too long given what the Canadian is capable of from tee-to-green. Ecstatic to get out of the state of California, Conners missed out on weekend play at both The American Express and the Farmers Insurance Open to no fault of his steady ball-striking.
Rather, as it has been known to be, the putter was a major disappointment as he posted -4.5 SG: Putting in his lone round at Torrey Pines South. Poor even for Conners’ standards, the return to Bermuda greens should be a welcomed sight as it has clearly been his preferred surface throughout his career.
With some of his best putting performances coming at Waialae Country Club, Bay Hill, and TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale would fit in nicely among this crop of courses. Narrowly gaining strokes on the field last season en route to his T-17 finish, it is comforting to see the 30-year-old has performed adequately on these green complexes before.
Sticking with the theme of our WMPO selections, the clearance section in Scottsdale is filled with bargain deals. A number of previous Tour winners such as Harris English (+6000) and Luke List (+6000) occupy this range, but it is once again Talor Gooch (+7000) who we fancy.
Headlining our selections for the Farmers Insurance Open, the RSM Classic winner finished on a high note, signing for a 5-under 67 in the final round at Torrey Pines South. While the ball-striking appeared lackluster for the majority of the week, the Oklahoma State product posted a combined +2.0 strokes-gained off-the-tee and on approach two Sundays ago.
Eventually finishing in a tie for 20th, the 30-year-old is now set for his fourth appearance at TPC Scottsdale. While it has yet to click on the par-71, the state of Gooch’s game allows him to be the exception to this week’s rule.
According to our NBC Sports EDGE Driver Tool, Gooch ranks inside the top-10 in this field in SG: Around-the-Green, Greens in Regulation, and Par-5 scoring over the last 36 rounds. Having gained strokes on the field with his irons in his last 10 starts, a slight uptick in accuracy off-the-tee could propel Gooch to the first page of the leaderboard. Not necessarily a big ask, the bigger point of contention lies with the putter in hand.
However, Gooch has been solid on Bermuda in his career, namely at Sea Island, Memorial Park and Bay Hill. Having done some damage with the flat stick at TPC Sawgrass at last year’s Players Championship, and like Conners, there is enough good to outweigh the bad.
Sometimes when it comes to betting on golf, it is wise to ride out previous selections until either (a) they win or (b) the current form you were so keen on fizzles out. If Gooch is making another appearance in this article, then Max Homa (+8000) will be as well.
Holding the honors of being the player I bet on the most, this was around the time last season where he began his steady climb to victory at the Genesis Invitational. Missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, 2022 is off to a far different start, but the three-time winner on the PGA Tour should garner more respect than this. Especially considering, this is a type of field and event where Homa’s game has risen to the occasion in the past.
A Scottsdale resident, there is some concern regarding some potential hosting duties and what not, but with the average winning score since 2015 coming in around 17-under, this week should be right in his wheelhouse. With finishes of T-26, T-6, and T-42, the 31-year-old has posted a career scoring average of 68.67 at TPC Scottsdale, better than past champions Simpson, Rickie Fowler (+8000), and Gary Woodland (+9000).
While the missed cut at Torrey Pines may scare some off, Homa has always been known as a volatile player. In regards to outright betting, is that not what you want? A great par-5 scorer and with the putter finding some form in his two starts this year, if Homa can return to his long-term ball-striking metrics, he has a chance to return to the winner’s circle.
And if Gooch and Homa are featured on this week’s card, then you best believe Keith Mitchell (+13000) will be making an appearance. Finally, off the bumpy poa annua greens of California, the former Georgia Bulldog should relish returning to a variation of his native Bermuda grass.
As his ball-striking was terrific at Pebble Beach, gaining nearly a combined five-strokes off-the-tee and on approach in only two measured rounds. Eventually finishing in a tie for 12th, this result complemented his 3rd-place finish at THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT, T-12 at the RSM Classic, and T-7 at the Sony Open.
Playing some terrific golf in the 2021-22 season, he now returns to TPC Scottsdale for the fourth time in his career. With a mixed bag of finishes, his best being a T-16 in 2020, it is important to note Mitchell has never arrived to Arizona in such form. Known to play his best golf in the state of Florida, if there is a tournament out west where Mitchell can find sustained success it is the WM Phoenix Open.
I thought about going to James Hahn (+20000) to round out the card since we were high on his prospects ahead of Pebble Beach. Likely winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am if he does not WD, it was a tough pass given the recent tee-to-green play and his results in this event.
Having been on the wrong end of his back-nine collapse last season, much like Spieth at the Farmers, I cannot stomach the potential for similar pain, so instead, I look to another horse for the course in Branden Grace (+16000). Yet to play in the Lower 48 this year, the South African did not look sharp in his two starts in Hawaii.
Finishing outside the top-30 at the Tournament of Champions and missing the cut at the Sony Open, this may be a bit of a head scratcher. Yet for someone down in the depths of the odds board, he has contended at a decent clip. A winner a year ago at the Puerto Rico Open, Grace has since added a playoff loss at the Wyndham Championship, a top-5 finish at The Memorial, and top-10 results at the U.S. Open and the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP to his PGA Tour resume.
Finishing runner-up to Fowler in the rain-soaked 2019 version of this tournament, Grace followed this performance with a top-10 effort in 2020. While eight rounds of play is a small sample size, I can tolerate the risk Grace presents at this number as he did not strike the ball all that poorly the last time we saw him.
Outright Selections:
Sam Burns +4000 at BetRivers (0.83 units)
Corey Conners +6000 at BetRivers (0.55 units)
Talor Gooch +7000 at BetRivers (0.47 units)
Max Homa +8000 at DraftKings Sportsbook (0.41 units)
Keith Mitchell +13000 at DraftKings Sportsbook (0.25 units)
Branden Grace +16000 at BetRivers (0.21 units)
Outrights YTD: +53.91 units, +392.47%
Total YTD: +45.65 units, +119.81%
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