Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet on Colin Rea‘s strikeout prop in the Baltimore Orioles versus Milwaukee Brewers matchup.
Colin Rea O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Orioles
Corbin Burnes went 8.0 innings yesterday with nine strikeouts and two hits allowed against Baltimore, so the Orioles are looking for a bounce back against Colin Rea.
With Burnes going 8.0 innings, the bullpen will be ready and available for Milwaukee in the series finale if needed.
The Brewers won the first two of this series and the Orioles are the favorites on Thursday after dropping games to Freddy Peralta and Burnes.
Rea isn’t quite the same pitcher as those two, so I like the chances Baltimore’s bats get to him despite their numbers dropping over the last two games.
Rea is 5-4 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts this season and owns a 5.26 ERA and .263 OBA in five home starts (six games). Over the last seven, 15 and 30 days, Rea owns a 5.23 ERA or higher.
Rea’s recorded 18 strikeouts and seven walks in his past four starts (20.0 innings) with 11 earned runs and 21 hits.
Three of those four starts came at home and overall this year, Rea has faced 30 hitters the third time through the order, so we shouldn’t expect 6.0 or more innings. Rea has only gone 6.0 innings twice all season.
With K%, whiff% and chase rate in the 29th percentile or worse, I grabbed Rea Under 4.5 strikeouts at -116 odds and would go out to -140.
Pick: Colin Rea Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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