Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Chris Mazza RHP (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) vs J.A. Happ LHP (0-1, 10.29 ERA, 2.14 WHIP)
Boston will start right-hander Chris Mazza, a 30-year-old pitcher who has just 19 career MLB innings pitched. He allowed one hit with two walks in his only 2.2 innings this year on August 1 when he faced New York. It will be a bullpen day for the Red Sox and on the year, the Boston bullpen is sporting a 5.40 ERA with opposing batters hitting .280 off them.
Lefty J.A. Happ has only made two starts this year and in those two games, the 36-year-old pitcher has allowed eight walks and eight earned runs. In his short 10 innings of work, left-handed batters are 3-for-5 with two home runs. Last year across 16 games at home, Happ allowed a .838 OPS to opponents compared to a .737 OPS on the road.
Weather
It won’t be too hot on Sunday with the temperature reaching mid-to-high 70s at first pitch and a medium 10 mph wind blowing in from center field. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Injuries
Boston: Andrew Benintendi OF (out - ribs)
New York: Giancarlo Stanton (out - hamstring), DJ LeMahieu 2B (questionable - thumb), Aroldis Chapman RP (out - illness), Aaron Judge OF (out - leg), Tommy Kahnle RP (out - elbow)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
As of Saturday, the Over is 5-0-2 O/U when New York is the home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.
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MONEYLINE PICK
The Yankees have gone 4-1 SU since Giancarlo Stanton hit the shelf with a hamstring strain and now, they are four games deep without Aaron Judge as well. The Stanton-and-Judge-less offense has averaged over nine runs a game and hasn’t missed a beat as Gleyber Torres has picked up some of the slack going 4-for-4 on Friday night and 2-for-4 on Saturday. The Yankees have owned Boston in the past, going 15-1 SU in their last 16 meetings. You don’t see dominance like that in baseball often, especially within the division, as New York has won each of those games by more than one run.
Boston sits in the basement in the AL East thanks to its 6.27 ERA and .860 OPS against. Both of those marks rank in the bottom-three of the league and now a terrible pitching team must face a New York offense that sits first in runs per game (6.05) and home runs per game (1.65). New York is also the league’s best team at hitting bombs at home, where the Yankee Stadium residents are launching 2.25 longs balls a game.
PREDICTION: Yankees -1.5 (-105)
OVER/UNDER PICK
Boston and New York are very popular public Over plays, but the truth is the Red Sox are just 8-11-1 O/U on the year while New York is hitting the Over at just 50% heading into Saturday at 9-9-1 O/U. The Yankees are 6-2-2 O/U on totals of 9 or higher this year and went 1-2 O/U in a three-game set in New York versus the Red Sox at the beginning of August.
With Happ having control issues as he hits his late MLB years, we like his pitching trends to continue and back it up with his splits at home favoring the Over. The Yankees lineup is still solid without its biggest two power bats - and possibly LeMahieu - as the middle-to-bottom of the order was hot yesterday going 8-for-15.
PREDICTION: Over 9 (-115)
PLAYER PROP PICK
As mentioned above, Gleyber Torres has strung a few games together going 6-for-8 with seven total bases in his last two games versus the Bo Sox. Torres was hitting just .161 heading into the series but has done a lot of the heavy lifting without the big-boppers in the Yanks’ lineup.
Last year, the shortstop slashed .306/.366/.569 versus Boston with five home runs in 72 at-bats. With Boston on a bullpen day and not having much success with even its “A” bullpen, Torres should get a few nice hacks versus a few nice hacks. We feel comfortable taking the Over 1.5 total bases if your book isn’t offering 0.5.
PREDICTION: Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 total bases (-135)
Red Sox vs Yankees betting card
• Yankees -1.5 (-105)
• Over 9 (-115)
• Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 total bases (-135)
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