Happy Friday! We finally made it to the weekend, and our reward is a loaded MLB card kicking off at 6:35 and taking us all the way into the early hours of Saturday. I’ve got my eye on plenty of lines, but I’ve picked out the two I like the most. Without further ado, let’s get down to it.
St. Louis Cardinals (+105) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-125) Total: 7.5
The names don’t jump off the page here, but both of these pitchers are very good. JT Brubaker, in particular, has been a revelation. The righty has continued to flash a plus spin rate on his slider which has helped his fastball play up and generate more whiffs. The biggest thing working for him is his Sinker, which hitters are just .050 off of after batting .268 a year ago. Against a slumping Cardinals lineup, he should have a chance to continue his success, which has led him to a sparkling 2.02 ERA this year.
John Gant, on the other hand, has had a weird year. He was one of the most dominant relievers in the National League for a couple of years, and his transition into the rotation has been up and down. His numbers are good, with just a 2.25 ERA, but he’s had some rocky outings. He was lucky to get out of his first start against the Marlins relatively unscathed, stranding a lot of runners, and walked five against the Phillies in start No. 3. Last time out, though, he seemed to settle in. He allowed just three hits and two walks with five strikeouts over six scoreless innings against a Reds team that ranks fifth in wRC+ against righties. The Pirates sit 14th in that department, and I see Gant following up with another good outing. It’s hard to stomach a total this low with pitchers that aren’t household names, but it’s the right play.
Edge: Under 7.5
Chicago Cubs (+110) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-130) Total: 9
My initial inclination here was to fade Jake Arrieta. The grizzled righty has been nothing but trouble lately, stranding an insane 83.3% of runners, which is up from his career average of 71.9%. He’s also given up 90.6 mph off the bat on average, which ranks in the bottom 27% of baseball. His expected ERA is nearly two full runs higher than his real-life ERA of 2.57, which points to the fact that he’s been so damn lucky. The Reds can really swing the stick, and rank fifth in wRC+ to right-handed pitchers. Arrieta should be in for a long night.
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Wait, though, there’s more! The Cubs have been hot at the dish, ranking just outside the top 10 in offense over the past week and actually making contact at a reasonably average rate, go figure! The one thing they’ve done well all season is long is hit lefties, against whom they rank 11th with a 112 wRC+. Wade Miley has a long track record of being average, and I’m not ready to trust his early results in 2021 after what he showed us in 2020. On top of that, he hasn’t faced a team that’s quite as good against southpaws as Chicago, nor one as hot as the Cubbies. I think there should be plenty of runs scored here.
Edge: Over 9
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