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MONSTER Saturday. A quickie 3-0 SWEEPAROO featuring a couple of big boy money upsets. Huge. There are several good looks today, so let’s hop to it.
Quick piece of advice for any type of bets for College Baseball, SHOP AROUND. A lot of different books are hanging mispriced numbers, so you can take advantage of them.
*Each play will be labeled (1 through number “X”) to determine how I rank my plays on a daily basis.
Auburn Tigers (+165) @ Oregon State Beavers (-200) | Over/Under 11.5 (1)
Great win for the Tigers on Saturday night. On the road, in a tough environment, they gutted out a quality dub. Obviously, when I wrote this matchup up yesterday, OSU ace Cooper Hjerpe was slated to pitch, but thanks to a last-second illness, he was scratched an hour before his start. I mentioned yesterday that Hjerpe vs. Auburn’s Joe Gonzalez was what I really wanted to see, and it fell into place for me because that’s what we have today.
58. That’s the amount of runs this Auburn lineup has plated over its last four contests. Of course, the big boy, Sonny DiChiara took a visit to the tater factory last night, but there continues to be production throughout the lineup. Tonight will be the test against the best pitcher in the country in Hjerpe. With his herky-jerky motion and crossfire delivery, the Dick Howser Trophy and Golden Spikes Award finalist has been able to dot opposing hitters all season. If the Tigers want to win this game, the burden will have to fall on the shoulders of their best starter in Joseph Gonzalez (7-2 mark, 2.90 ERA). Outside of the Pac-12 player of the year in Jacob Melton (.360 avg, 16 HRs), I don’t believe the Beavers have a ton of legit weapons in the lineup. There are some solid hitters like Justin Boyd and Wade Meckler, but OSU likely tops out at five, maybe six runs today. I would say this though, if the Beavers score more than five, I’m not sure Auburn will be able to match that total against Hjerpe.
Speaking of Mr. Hjerpe, this is the type of moment where he needs to shine with the season on the line thanks to their Saturday night loss. His 155 punchouts lead the nation this year, he is among the league leaders in most major pitching categories. The kid has been lights out this season, significantly bolstering his case as a top 15 pick in the MLB Draft if he leaves school. His signature highlight this season of course is when he tossed an eight shutout inning gem against Stanford, while striking out 17. You could argue though that he has not seen an offense like this, except for maybe Stanford or Arizona. While I think the Tigers happen to be extremely hot, it’s more so one player in Sonny D that is the real threat. For good measure, the future first-round pick in Hjerpe is 10-2 this season, and nine of his last 10 starts have been totaled under 11 runs. I originally projected Auburn getting to him as the game-one starter, but now that their backs are against the wall, I think Cooper Hjerpe puts a bow on his Cy Young type of season. If whatever illness he had last night doesn’t hinder him, I think he tosses six or seven innings and doesn’t allow more than two runs.
I had a feeling this was going to be a three-game series, which means OSU needs to win tonight. Coop has been unreal this season, especially as of late. Auburn winning wouldn’t surprise me, but I don’t think they pull it off tonight. Thanks to a juice latte on the ML, we won’t be taking the Beavers straight up, so let’s hit the total. Both teams scored just enough last night to buy us another half run/run, so with a great pitching duel on deck, let’s hit the under.
PREDICTION: UNDER 11.5 (-105)
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Oklahoma Sooners (+144) @ Virginia Tech Hokies (-178) | Over/Under 16.5 (2)
Game two between these wagons was an absolute slugfest. While I wouldn’t be shocked to see this hit 16 or 17 runs, I feel like this one ends up being a nail-biter 7-6 or 7-5 game. I don’t have an exact confirmation yet on the pitching matchup, but I would think OU is throwing either the surging Cade Horton, or maybe their closer again in Trevin Michael. V-Tech is probably throwing lefty Ryan Okuda. Who will be punching their ticket to Omaha?
My little Sooners are becoming men before my very eyes. Their pitching got way out of hand yesterday when the Hokies dropped 14 on them. As strong as this Oklahoma lineup is, they don’t want to start getting into a track meet with Virginia Tech. Still, scoring eight runs is a nice little feat, even if they left a small army stranded on the base paths. Let’s say the Sooners roll with Cade Horton “Hears a Who” with the way he’s been pumping lately (11.2 IP, three runs, 17 K’s) against Texas and Florida, I love their chances today. Realistically, OU needs to find a way to grab at least six innings from him. Today is a day for guys like Peyton Graham, Tanner Treadaway, John Spikerman and company to leave it all out there. My big concern is the somewhat struggles this offense has had against lefties this series. If V-Tech throws Okuda, they will need to get creative. As always, wreaking havoc on the base paths is a must!
Do the pokey, Hokies. That middle of the lineup yesterday could not be stopped. With Gavin Cross, Tanner Schoebel, Jack Hurley, and Cade Hunter combining for 147 hits and 16 tanks (seven hits, five RBIs, three bombs), it just shows what kind of pressure this offense puts on a pitcher. From top to bottom, this lineup is one of the absolute best in the country. Seeing Horton on a little hot streak will be a challenge, so I think for them the key will be to see a lot of pitches and try to knock him out by the fifth innings. There are only a few arms in that pen for Oklahoma that are trustworthy, so digging into it early will be big. On the flip side, Okuda needs to keep the Sooners off the bases. Ultimately though, the last time he went three or more innings, you have to go all the way back to March 13th against Georgia Tech, which was the last time he had over 45 pitches.
I have been on Oklahoma since before the tournament. I knew they would have to beat this Hokies team to advance, and I am sticking to my guns. The Sooners find somehow, some way to pull this one out. It’s shaping up to be a fantastic matchup.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma ML (+144)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+320) @ Tennessee Volunteers (-430) | Over/Under 13.5 (3)
Showtime. This winner-take-all contest between two great teams will have me chugging Pepto Bismol through a funnel this afternoon considering I have a decent-sized futures ticket on the Vols to win the whole thing from earlier this season. Unsurprisingly, I don’t have an exact pitching matchup confirmation. For the Irish, it could be Southpaw Jack Findlay who closed out the game Friday, or one of their other arms, but it may be a bullpen game for them. Even the standout freshman for UT, Drew Beam, is no guarantee to start today. How are we attacking this one?
I never discounted ND in this series. Of course I picked Tennessee to win, but I knew with the pitching the Irish have, things would be interesting. And now their offense all of the sudden started drinking “Michael’s secret stuff” because they’re hitting the ball everywhere. It would not surprise me today to see ND use a handful of different arms to try and piece this thing together. There has been use of about eight different pitchers thus far, though some of them barely threw any pitches. Offensively, I can’t believe what I’m seeing. They have to do what they did in game one, and attack the fastballs when they come, even if that means hunting early in the count. I’m sure the Irish will see Beam and Chase Burns for most of the game, in some capacity.
It’s time, my darling Vols. The very thing I have been preaching all year about this team is why I believe they are set up in a great situation to win this game. It’s not only their talent, their top-ranked offense, their coach, or their pitching staff, but the DEPTH. Everywhere you look, they have great talent, behind the great talent. This is why you have freshmen like Blake Burke on the bench… or you have FOUR number one starters/aces. Moments like this are exactly why you stack up. Now, you must call upon the depth because it could and should be the difference. Also, let’s not forget who is back in the lineup. Starting CF, Drew Gilbert, returns after a ridiculous suspension after Friday’s ejection arguing a horribly called strike. This could be his last game at Lindsey Nelson Stadium, or even as a Vol. If I could bet him to have at least two hits or a tank today, I would because I bet he puts on his best showcase all season. I think it’s time for Tennessee to silence the haters.
While I do expect my Volunteers to escape victorious, I won’t forget about Notre Dame. This is their chance to shine as well. I believe the Fighting Irish keep this close. Although UT blowing them out wouldn’t shock me, I think Notre Dame holds their ground today. If you can believe it, FanDuel is hanging a 4.5 Run Line today. Absolutely idiotic, but what else can you expect when sportsbooks decide to get in on the action after not doing it all season? This is way too big of a line to not take a shot on. Notre Dame probably loses by three or four. Oh, and this started at about -170 this morning, and has been coming down considerably.
PREDICTION: Notre Dame +4.5 (-145)
Enjoy the taste, kid
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