Line Moves
One hour of practice wasn’t much, but it was enough to help move the lines of all but one of the top-10 ranked drivers for the Ally 400.
Practice confirmed several of our presuppositions entering the weekend.
Hendrick Motorsports is as fast as we thought they would be and several of the dark horses we had our eyes on, posted fast laps. For the most part, that helped move the needle, but without a great set of notes on how practice impacts race trim in 2021, it was difficult for the traders to rationalize huge movements.
Kyle Larson opened on Monday with +300 odds. As we’ve said for the past several weeks, if you are going to bet on the No. 5 Monday is the best time to place a wager because he heads in only one direction as the week progresses. By midweek, he was at +280. He dropped another nickel before practice, but when he tied for the fastest single lap and topped the 10-lap average chart, his lines fell even more. At +220, he is a massive favorite.
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Chase Elliott opened the weekend as the third-favored driver. With as much momentum as he currently has on his side, that seemed to be a strange choice. He should have been second on the list. It wasn’t until he posted the third-fastest speed in practice that his line moved. Once it did, it was significant and his current +600 odds are -125 points lower than they were at the start of the week. It is also 300 points better than the remainder of the field. The odds have caught up to what has been the reality of the past month.
Denny Hamlin (+900) did not look bad in practice, but he didn’t turn many heads. The addition of 50 points to his line probably has as much to do with balancing the odds among the top five as it does the traders’ opinions, but a more significant comparison this week might be in just how far he’s fallen since the Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway. Hamlin closed at +580 in Delaware, which means oddsmakers needed to sweeten the pot by some 320 points to get some action moving.
We marveled at the long odds for William Byron earlier this week and suggested you jump on his +1300 line. Enough money exchanged hands that oddsmakers needed to shave 100 points before practice. His speed in the hour-long session underscored the risk of leaving him at 12/1 and Byron jumped significantly to +900, which makes him the third-ranked driver this week, tied with Hamlin. Given the relative momentum of Hendrick versus Gibbs, Byron is the better bet.
Martin Truex Jr. fell significantly this week. Whether this team is experimenting or struggling doesn’t make any difference – the bottom line is they are not reliable once the green flag waves. Truex and the No. 19 have the talent to win. They’ve proven that three times already, including on another rough-surfaced track in Darlington. But the next three races after that latest victory ended outside the top 15. While Truex rebounded to third at Sonoma Raceway, the road course does not factor heavily into this week’s handicap.
Three teams have set themselves apart in 2021. Hendrick Motorsports is (for the moment) in a league of their own, Joe Gibbs Racing has been solid, but inconsistent, and Team Penske is in the same boat as JGR. That showed in practice earlier as Ryan Blaney landed in the top 10 on the 10-lap average chart, Joey Logano was just outside that mark, and Brad Keselowski seemed to struggle.
Uncertainty makes it hard to handicap, so Logano and Blaney kept their original lines of +1300 and +1600 respectively. Keselowski had 200 points added and is currently +1500 – but he is still ranked among the top 10 with that line.
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Rank | Driver | Current | Opening | Change | Before | Drydene 400 |
1. | 220 | 300 | -80 | 275 | 440 | |
2. | 600 | 725 | -125 |
| 900 | |
3. | 900 | 850 | 50 |
| 580 | |
3. | 900 | 1300 | -400 | 1200 | 1600 | |
5. | 1000 | 650 | 350 | 700 | 375 | |
5. | 1000 | 900 | 100 |
| 800 | |
7. | 1300 | 1200 | 100 | 1300 | 725 | |
7. | 1300 | 1300 | 0 |
| 1500 | |
9. | 1400 | 1500 | -100 |
| 1800 | |
10. | 1500 | 1300 | 200 |
| 1300 | |
| ||||||
11. | 1600 | 1600 | 0 |
| 2200 | |
12. | 4000 | 4000 | 0 | 5000 | 6600 | |
13. | 5000 | 4000 | 1000 |
| 2800 | |
14. | 6000 | 6000 | 0 |
| 6000 | |
15. | 7000 | 5000 | 2000 |
| 8000 | |
16. | 8000 | 15000 | -7000 | 20000 | 25000 | |
17. | 10000 | 9000 | 1000 |
| 8000 | |
18. | 15000 | 20000 | -5000 |
| 20000 | |
19. | 20000 | 25000 | -5000 |
| 20000 | |
19. | 20000 | 20000 | 0 |
| 10000 | |
19. | 20000 | 15000 | 5000 |
| 20000 | |
| ||||||
22. | 30000 | 25000 | 5000 |
| 20000 | |
22. | 30000 | 25000 | 5000 |
| 25000 | |
22. | 30000 | 25000 | 5000 |
| 20000 | |
25. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
|
| |
25. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
|
| |
25. | 50000 | 30000 | 20000 |
| 30000 | |
25. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| 50000 | |
25. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| 50000 | |
25. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| 50000 | |
25. | 50000 | 35000 | 15000 |
| 25000 | |
25. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
|
| |
25. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
|
| |
25. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| 50000 | |
25. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| 50000 | |
25. | 50000 | 40000 | 10000 |
| 30000 | |
25. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| 50000 | |
25. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| 50000 | |
25. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| 50000 |
Ally 400 Practice
Latest Lines for the Drydene 400
Latest Lines for the Goodyear 400
