Last week was a pivotal race because it was the true end to the regular season as far as betting is concerned.
Five drivers swept the top 10 in Dover International Speedway’s two races. That would have been greater if not for an early incident that claimed two top contenders and a late-race penalty that robbed another frontrunner of his track position.
Dover is predictable, but that doesn’t mean it always goes to form.
The 2020 season is starting to look like many of the past few with three clear cut favorites and a host of others vying for the fourth position. Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr. had the measure of the field on the 1-mile concrete oval. But that was also the case at Michigan, New Hampshire, and Kansas.
Daytona International Speedway is an island under attack by a hurricane. No one knows what will happen this week as more than 20 drivers go all in for one of two remaining spots in the playoff field. For now, revel in the past several weeks and be very careful with your wagers on the aero-restricted superspeedway.
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Top 10
1. Kevin Harvick (last week: 1)
Weeks in the top 10: 21
Weeks as #1: 13
Power Average: 6.65
With a wonky track bar, Harvick held on to finish fourth in the first Dover race last week. Even Fate is powerless to stop the driver of the No. 4. Once they fixed that mechanical issue, Harvick rambled to a dominant victory on Sunday when he led both stages and secured the victory.
2. Denny Hamlin (last week: 2)
Weeks in the top 10: 17
Weeks as #1: 1
Power Average: 6.67
Hamlin capped off a six-race streak of top-six finishes with a convincing victory on Saturday. He ran well on Sunday before a loose lugnut brought him back into the pits and cost him track position. It’s hard to know how the aero-restricted superspeedway race will play out this week, but Hamlin is taking momentum with him into to playoffs.
3. Martin Truex Jr. (last week: 7) +4
Weeks in the top 10: 18
Power Average: 5.67
After six consecutive third-place finishes, Truex finally got to experience another result. He was second in both Dover races. Will this start a new streak? If it does, he is going to be one of the most popular wagers for a top-three pick as soon as Daytona is in the books.
4. Brad Keselowski (last week: 3) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 21
Power Average: 8.01
With a ninth-place finish on Saturday and an eighth on Sunday, Keselowski was consistent at Dover. If one disregards his accident at Michigan, he now has top-15 finishes in 23 of his last 24 starts. The only time he failed to finish that well was on the lottery track of Talladega when he was shuffled to 19th in the draft. That steadfastness has kept him among the top 10 in odds’ rankings with an average of 5.6 over the past 45 days.
5. Joey Logano (last week: 5)
Weeks in the top 10: 22
Power Average: 8.71
Logano has been just as consistent as teammate Keselowski recently. He left Dover with a six-race, top-10 streak during which he scored an average of 6.7. He is earning points, but does not quite seem to have the power to challenge for a win. In that same span of time, he has earned only two top-fives. Harvick and Hamlin have such a clear advantage in terms of playoff bonus points, that this is really only a two-man battle to see who joins them in the finale. Logano is going to have to rediscover how to win.
6. Aric Almirola (last week: 6)
Weeks in the top 10: 9
Power Average: 10.78
Almirola’s crew gambled on a setup at Michigan in the first race of that doubleheader and they finished 16th. The kickoff to the Dover weekend was no better with a 17th-place result. In both instances, the No. 10 rebounded to score a top-10, but it was consistency that made them attractive. That is now lost. Take a wait-and-see stance before posting any significant wagers during the playoffs.
7. Chase Elliott (last week: 4) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 22
Weeks as #1: 5
Power Average: 11.18
Elliott desperately needed a strong run at Dover to solidify his momentum. He got it in Saturday’s race with a fifth-place finish, but when the top-20 was inverted to start on Sunday, it put him in traffic. On the opening laps, Logano turned Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in front of the field. In the stack-up that resulted, Elliott severely damaged the nose of his Chevrolet and was the second driver to retire. Another instance of bad luck at Daytona will put this team in a bad frame of mind for the playoffs.
8. Ryan Blaney (last week: 10) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 17
Weeks as #1: 2
FPR#: 11.43
Blaney wasn’t horrible at Dover, but he definitely wasn’t great. He moved up the chart because an even worse outing at Indy aged out of the 45-day formula. Bettors expect more out of Team Penske than a pair of top-15s and the No. 12 has not been relevant since he won at Talladega. His only top-five since then was a fourth at Michigan.
9. Clint Bowyer (last week: 12) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 2
FPR#: 12.14
Last week we suggested that Bowyer needed to step up his game if Kyle Larson was waiting in the wings to take his ride. While it is still unclear what the fate of this driver will be or who is going to be in the No. 14 next year, Bowyer did his part with top-10 capable runs. Unfortunately he slipped to 16th in Race 2 and that might be the lingering impression heading into a critical part of the season.
10. Kurt Busch (last week: 8) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 17
Power Average: 12.33
Saturday’s Drydene 311 wasn’t the first time Busch finished in the 40s at Dover. He was black flagged in 42nd in the June 2007 event and blew a Roush-powered engine in route to a 41st-place finish in 2001. It was a frustrating result nonetheless for one of the most reliable drivers in the field. Busch finished 13th on Sunday and now has three consecutive results outside the top 10.
Dropped from the Top 10
11. Kyle Busch (last week: 9) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 14
Power Average: 12.71
Just when it seems as if Busch’s season was turning around, he got hit from behind by Elliott at Dover and sent into the wall. Busch recovered, but the car was never the same. He entered the second half of the double header with three consecutive top-fives on ovals and expected to run with the leaders again. Bookmakers expected that as well and gave him reasonably good odds of +700 (7/1) for the Sunday Drydene 311. Whether he maintains that optimism might rely on how lucky he is in the capricious draft at Daytona.
Big Movers outside the Top 10
17. Tyler Reddick (last week: 15) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 0
Power Average: 16.86
Reddick came within one spot of qualifying for the playoffs when he finished second to his teammate Austin Dillon at Texas. That might well be the highlight of his season, but he has one more shot if he can pull out a miracle in Daytona. His performance since his runner-up finish has been good, but not playoff caliber with three top-15s in seven races and an average finish of 16.3.
23. Chris Buescher (last week: 28) +5
Weeks in the top 10: 3
Power Average: 21.84
From Pocono 2 though New Hampshire, Buescher finished 25th or worse in four of six races. Those are beginning to age out of the Power Rankings formula and in his last five efforts he has an average finish of 15.0 with a sweep of the top 20. It’s not enough to build a betting strategy around, but he might be an interesting pick in some race props.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
Drydene 311 (Sunday), Dover: Kevin Harvick (+450)
Drydene 311 (Saturday), Dover: Denny Hamlin (+600)
Go Bowling 235, Daytona Road Course: Chase Elliott (+375)
Consumers Energy 312, Michigan: Kevin Harvick (+250)
FireKeepers Casino 312, Michigan: Kevin Harvick (+400)
Foxwoods Casino 301, New Hampshire: Brad Keselowski (+900)
Super Start Batteries 400, Kansas: Denny Hamlin (+800)
O’Reilly 500, Texas: Austin Dillon (+12500)
Quaker State 400, Kentucky: Cole Custer (+10000)
Power Average, Last 45 Days | |||||
This | Driver | Power | Avg. Odds | Last | Difference |
1. | 6.65 | 1.29 | 1 | 0 | |
2. | 6.67 | 2.71 | 2 | 0 | |
3. | 7.40 | 5.67 | 7 | 4 | |
4. | 8.01 | 5.57 | 3 | -1 | |
5. | 8.71 | 6.43 | 5 | 0 | |
6. | 10.78 | 10.71 | 6 | 0 | |
7. | 11.18 | 4.29 | 4 | -3 | |
8. | 11.43 | 6.14 | 10 | 2 | |
9. | 12.14 | 14.14 | 12 | 3 | |
10. | 12.33 | 10.14 | 8 | -2 | |
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11. | 12.71 | 3.79 | 9 | -2 | |
12. | 13.31 | 14.21 | 11 | -1 | |
13. | 13.60 | 11.71 | 14 | 1 | |
14. | 13.65 | 14.00 | 13 | -1 | |
15. | 14.08 | 11.64 | 16 | 1 | |
16. | 15.02 | 19.79 | 18 | 2 | |
17. | 15.25 | 16.86 | 15 | -2 | |
18. | 16.05 | 20.43 | 17 | -1 | |
19. | 16.83 |
| 20 | 1 | |
20. | 16.91 | 10.50 | 19 | -1 | |
21. | 18.58 | 17.86 | 19 | -2 | |
22. | 21.75 | 21.43 | 26 | 4 | |
23. | 21.84 | 25.23 | 28 | 5 | |
24. | 22.56 | 17.36 | 23 | -1 | |
25. | 22.98 | 28.00 | 24 | -1 | |
26. | 23.32 | 23.00 | 29 | 3 | |
27. | 23.58 | 27.50 | 25 | -2 | |
28. | 24.78 | 25.07 | 27 | -1 | |
29. | 24.92 | 27.33 | 31 | 2 | |
30. | JH Nemechek | 26.78 | 26.71 | 30 | 0 |
31. | 26.93 | 31.21 | 33 | 2 | |
32. | 27.81 | 28.54 | 32 | 0 | |
33. | 29.25 | 31.43 | 34 | 1 | |
34. | 31.21 | 32.14 | 38 | 4 | |
35. | 31.44 |
| 37 | 2 | |
36. | 31.85 | 32.00 | 35 | -1 | |
37. | 32.42 | 31.20 | 42 | 5 | |
38. | 33.14 | 33.00 | 41 | 3 | |
39. | 33.41 | 32.14 | 40 | 1 | |
40. | 33.63 | 31.71 | 36 | -4 | |
41. | 33.78 | 32.08 | 39 | -2 | |
42. | 34.14 |
| 45 | 3 | |
43. | 34.90 | 31.79 | 44 | 1 | |
44. | 35.43 | 32.15 | 43 | -1 | |
45. | 38.67 |
| 46 | 1 |
