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Cameron Johnson O/U 7.5 Points vs. Clippers
The Suns’ rotation has been hard to nail down after role players go hot then cold, plus Chris Paul missed two games and Devin Booker struggling at times playing through the mask.
One player I could see an uptick for minutes in game 6 is Cameron Johnson. The Suns’ guard has hit the 70.6% from the field in the series, 62.7% from three and 100% from the free-throw line.
He is attempting 6.0 field goals per game and making 4.2, in addition to 1.8 of his 3.2 triples. Johnson has been a reliable shooter in the series while other Phoenix role players have struggled.
Jae Crowder is hitting 27.7% from the field and averaging 6.2 points per game. Mikal Bridges is knocking down 47.7% of his field goal attempts and 8.6 points per game. Cameron Payne is hitting 36.7% from the field and 30% from three with 10.4 points per game, but only a combined 33 minutes in the past two games.
Bridges only played four fourth-quarter minutes in Game 5 as the Suns rolled with Torrey Craig and Johnson. I expect Johnson’s minutes to keep coming as he recorded 23 or more minutes in four of the five-game series.
NBC’s model projects Johnson to record 9.3 points in 21 minutes, hitting the Over. Johnson has averaged 10.8 points per game in the series and 23.6 minutes per outing.
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Per props.cash, Johnson has scored eight or more points in four of five games this series (80%), five-of-eight versus the Clippers on the season (62.5%) and 6-of-10 in the postseason at 20-plus minutes (60%).
During the regular season, Johnson has scored eight or more points 39-of-52 times (75%) at 20 or more minutes -- 39 Overs and 13 Unders.
When Johnson plays 21 minutes or more, his success rate to the Over creeps beyond 70% and more than 80% at 22-plus minutes in the playoffs.
I see Johnson playing roughly 20-25 minutes in this matchup as the Suns will need his offense. When he plays 25 minutes, Johnson is 20-6 to the Over (76.9%) on the season.
Let us hope he gets the necessary minutes and shot attempts to hit the Over.
Pick: Cam Johnson Over 7.5 Points (1u)
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