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After a light slate last night with no plays, I’m back with two NBA picks on Friday’s games. My picks went 164-111-4 (59.6%) for +65.4 units so far this year, including a 32-21-2 (60.4%) stretch for +15.09 units since the start of 2022. I took both of my plays overnight and got better numbers than what is currently available. I still like both games at the current spread, but targeting overnight lines can be helpful for finding value as long as you check the injury reports first.
San Antonio Spurs at Brooklyn Nets:
Brooklyn put up a -2.6 net rating in six games without Kevin Durant this season, down from a +2.4 net rating overall, and the team’s effective field goal percentage drops by 4.6% with Durant off the court. KD’s scoring will be sorely missed, but playing without his rebounding may be a bigger blow for the Nets tonight. Brooklyn allows opponents to grab 4.6% more offensive rebounds with Durant off the court, a 95th percentile differential. The Nets will also be missing Paul Millsap for this game and Nic Claxton is questionable against San Antonio.
Jakob Poeltl is among the top offensive rebounders in the league, with the third-most offensive rebounds per game this year. Poeltl grabbed 13.5% of available missed field goals on offense, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among centers. Poeltl’s 13.1% assist rate is a career-high, and the Spurs score an additional 7.1 points per 100 possessions with Poeltl on the court. His rim protection numbers are down this year but opponents still shoot 1.5% worse at the rim with Poeltl on the court, after two consecutive seasons with at least a 7% differential in on/off opponent accuracy at the rim.
Dejounte Murray has been among the most improved players in the league this season and put up a triple double in his last game. The duo of Murray and White are well-equipped to defend Brooklyn’s assortment of guards, while San Antonio’s questionable wing defense catches a break with Kevin Durant out.
After ranking in the 35th percentile or worse among point guards in assist rate during each of the last three seasons, Murray’s playmaking made a significant leap this year to place him in the 91st percentile with a 37.3% assist rate. He’s also impressed as a rebounder, with a 19.1% defensive rebounding rate that ranks in the 98th percentile among point guards. San Antonio limits opponents to 4.8% fewer offensive boards with Murray on the court compared to when he sits, which ranks in the 96th percentile among all NBA players this year.
Derrick White is also putting up a career-high assist rate, but his defense has been the real improvement this year. White has always been a solid defender, with the Spurs putting up a better defensive rating with him on the court during each of his first five seasons, but he’s taking another leap this year. San Antonio limits opponents to 7.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with White on the court, a 92nd percentile differential, and he ranks in the top 5% of guards in block rate for the fourth straight season.
The Spurs play in transition at the third-highest rate in the NBA and 67.1% of San Antonio’s steals result in transition opportunities, the third-highest frequency in the league. Brooklyn’s defense ranks dead last in that category, allowing opponents to turn 72.2% of steals into transition opportunities. The Nets rank just 28th in defensive efficiency against transition plays that came off steals, so the Spurs will have chances to get out in transition off Brooklyn’s mistakes.
San Antonio averages the fourth-most second-chance points per game while the Nets rank in the bottom-five of defensive rebounding rate and offensive boards allowed per game. The Spurs force turnovers at the sixth-highest rate against opposing isolation plays, and Brooklyn is the only team using isolation on more than 10% of possessions this year. I expect San Antonio to win the rebounding battle and force enough turnovers to get easy buckets in transition, and I’m comfortable taking the Spurs up to +1 at home.
EDGE: San Antonio Spurs +3.5 (2 Units)
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Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
Golden State will rest both Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala on the second half of a back-to-back tonight, two of the team’s top perimeter defenders. The Warriors played 19 games without Thompson and Iguodala, conceding a defensive rating nearly two points per 100 possessions above their overall mark on the season.
The Rockets are used to being double-digit dogs this season with a 7-5-1 ATS mark in that situation. Houston struggled for a few weeks following a seven-game win streak earlier this year but won three of the last four games on the current road trip, including an outright win over the Utah Jazz as 14-point dogs on Wednesday. Houston won and covered four of the last five games away from home, and backing the Rockets on the road for every game of that span would result in a profit of +12.2 units on the moneyline and +2.64 units on the spread.
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Double-digit underdogs have performed well all season, covering nearly 54% of games after covering under 45% in that situation last year. Golden State has been one of the top teams when favored by double-digits, with a 5-3-1 ATS record as big favorites, but the only game without Draymond Green as double-digit favorites was last night, when the Warriors closed as -16.5 favorites in an outright loss to the Indiana Pacers without Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert and Domantas Sabonis.
The Rockets are far from the same caliber of team as the opposing team in this matchup, with the Warriors currently listed as the favorites to win the Western Conference Finals at PointsBet Sportsbook, but Houston’s three-point shooting allows them to stay in any game when the team knocks down shots. The Rockets put up a respectable -1.6 net rating in 10 games with Kevin Porter Jr., Eric Gordon and Jae’Sean Tate all available this season while improving the team’s offensive rating by more than six points per 100 possessions.
Golden State owns the best defensive rating in the league but there are some weak spots in the defense with Green, Iguodala and Thompson out. The Warriors rank just 25th in opponent accuracy on corner three-pointers, the easiest three-point shot on the floor. The problem gets even worse without Iguodala, since Golden State’s opponents shoot 11.6% worse on corner threes with Iguodala on the court than with him off, a 96th percentile differential according to Cleaning the Glass.
I expect the Rockets to take advantage of Golden State’s absences and hit enough threes to keep this game close. The line opened at +12.5 and moved down to 10.5 with news of Thompson and Iguodala resting. I put two units on Houston at the opener last night and would play the Rockets for a unit up to +9.
EDGE: Houston Rockets +12.5 (2 Units)
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