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Two Game 5s are set to take place in the Stanley Cup Playoffs on Thursday, but only one of them is a potential close-out game.
Below you will find a wager from tonight’s game between the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames that is available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
EDMONTON OILERS at CALGARY FLAMES
After the circus that was Game 1 of the Battle of Alberta, the momentum has shifted decidedly in the favor of the Edmonton Oilers.
Following their 9-6 loss in Game 1, the Oilers have rattled off three consecutive victories over their provincial rivals, outscoring the Flames 14-7.
Connor McDavid is having a postseason for the ages, registering at least two points in ten of his eleven Stanley Cup Playoff games this year, setting the tone for an Oilers team that at one point looked like they may not even make the tournament.
Leon Draisaitl appears to be banged up, but Evander Kane has picked up the slack, accounting for five goals over the course of Game 3 and Game 4.
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As I said in the Round 1 and Round 2 previews on NBCSportsEdge.com, Edmonton’s hopes will largely come down to the play of 41-year-old veteran netminder Mike Smith.
Aside from the Game 1 nightmare, Smith has been stout between the pipes, stopping 93.3% of the shots he’s faced in the last three games.
Conversely, Jacob Markstrom has hit a rut in this series for Calgary, allowing at least four goals in all four games while stopping just 85% of the shots he’s faced.
I see no reason why tonight’s game should play out any differently, leading me to believe the Oilers will close out the Flames on the road.
Perhaps this is being greedy, but I think the winner of this game does so by at least two goals in the end.
Edmonton’s moneyline odds of +130 (implied probability of 43.5%) are by no means unfair, but with each of the four games in this series being decided by at least two goals to this point, the Oilers’ reverse puck line odds of +310 (implied probability of 24.4%) intrigue more.
THE PLAYS
Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames – Oilers -1.5 (+310)
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