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Postseason Records to Date:
Record: 19-13
Units +4.75
Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop, 8:00 PM ET, ABC (Game 4)
It took a couple of games, but it seems the giant has awoken from its slumber! The back-to-back Stanley Cup champions showed up in a big way on Monday to dispatch the Avalanche, 6-2, in what may have been their finest performance of the playoffs. The offense was clicking, the defense limited scoring opportunities effectively and Andrei Vasilevskiy looked like a world beater once again. The biggest question remains though: can the Lightning do it again? I’m a bit uncertain on that one, although I give Tampa Bay the Edge tonight as home teams have been incredible these Stanley Cup Playoffs. Instead of forcing up a bet on the side for tonight though, I will stick with a player prop because they have been so profitable for this column over the last two weeks!
Today’s target in the player prop market is going to be the blueliner that finished third in the Norris Trophy voting last night, Victor Hedman. Hedman, outside of Vasilevskiy, is arguably the most important player in the Lightning locker room: he is a lock down defenseman on the back end but also a reliable option when it comes to jumping into the offensive zone. Hedman averaged 2.9 shots on goal per game in the regular season and posted the fifth-most shots among defenseman in total. Things have remained the same in the postseason as well, as Hedman has 62 total SOG, the most among blueliners these playoffs (yes, ahead of Cale Makar). That works out to 3.1 shots on goal per game, safely above his prop line tonight of 2.5 shots on goal. If we look even deeper into the stats, you’ll see that he’s his best on home ice too, hitting the Over on his prop in 6-of-9 games this postseason for a hit rate of 67%. As is commonplace, the sportsbooks have mispriced this prop given the trends for Hedman. The number should be around -180 to -190 but instead on DraftKings Sportsbook, you can bet this Over at -140, a value! Give me Hedman in another game that I fully expect the Lightning to bring their A game to; Tampa Bay should at least have 30 shots on goal and Hedman will be productive!
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The Pick
Victor Hedman Over 2.5 SOG (-140 on DraftKings)
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